YIKES!! Trump Gets BAD NEWS with new VOTING DATA (with Simon Rosenberg)
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What do the latest national polls say about Kamala Harris’s lead over Trump?
As the election approaches, let's focus on the data, and we have the best in the business, Simon Rosenberg. Simon, first I want to talk about the polling data. I know people are being overwhelmed with a deluge of polls, but let's just break it down for people right now. This is the post that you made moments ago. Two new highly rated polls show Vice President Kamala Harris gaining the This morning. The tip poll has her up by four, fifty to forty-six percent. The new Morris poll has her up fifty-two percent to forty-seven percent. This is on top of her leading in the morning consult poll plus four. The New York Times poll plus four. ABC and CBS plus three. And then the new economist Ugov poll has been steady as she goes.
goes up for Vice President Kamala Harris says. So with this data from actual top rated holsters, not we'll talk about some of these other people who are flooding the zone in a bit. What does this tell you about the race on October 16th, 2024? Look,
it's a close competitive election. But we are have modest leads nationally and in the battlegrounds. We're closer to two seventy in the battlegrounds. And my general take on the election is that Because of our financial advantage and our grassroots advantage, that we are far more likely in these closing weeks to move the election towards us. and win. And so I feel good. I mean, I know that there has been chatter in the family. About the NBC poll that showed Kamala Harris dropping. But that's not been found in other polls. And people have to realize that polls bounce around. I mean, we're dealing well everything is sort of within margin of error. And you know, right now today on the five thirty eight national average.
Kamala Harris is actually a tenth of a point higher than she was a week ago. She's actually gained a little bit. And as you pointed out, Ben, she's actually gained in some really important High quality polls that we all respect, right? I mean, the Maris poll is one of the highest-rated polls in our business. She gained three points. The tip poll is also highly rated, highly regarded.
How are the new Harris poll numbers affecting the October 16, 2024 race outlook?
She gained a point since yesterday. And in those polls, she's up four points, five points, right? She's up four points in the New York Times poll. We've all gone crazy with New York Times poll. We actually got the best New York Times poll the entire cycle a few days ago, and it was like it never um in our in our world. And then also today, this morning, a poll that's very meaningful to me, a poll that I have a lot of respect for. A poll that comes out on Wednesday mornings, the Economist Ugov poll, which is kind of this very sturdy, well constructed Poll showed her up four points, 49, 45, no change from last week. I think this whole idea that she's dropped, no change from last week. Pull the pulls every week as opposed to three or four times a year, right?
Or five times a year. And importantly, Um in in the Economist you got poll is that is Um, she's ahead the the polls that are showing her ahead three, four, five points are more often than not likely voter polls. And so we're starting to see what we saw in twenty twenty two, Ben, when I used to come on here, is we're doing slightly better with the voters who are more likely to vote in the election. Which is what you want, right? That's better than being ahead with registered voters because the likely universe is more likely to approximate the universe that actually votes. Because about twenty percent of registered voters don't vote. in these elections. And trying to figure out which one those are is sort of the secret sauce of polling.
But in but to summarize, right? I would much rather be us than them with three weeks to go.
In 2022, we also started looking at that early voting data when we had data that was statistically significant. And you and I and Tom Bonnier, we've really held off going into that uh from a week ago or so because we were trying to digest a lot of this data. But like, let's just take a look at a high level what we're seeing. I think tomorrow we'll bring in Tom. Tom Bonnier, you know, who really dissects this well.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What do the latest national polls say about Kamala Harris’s lead over Trump?
0:00–2:13
2
How are the new Harris poll numbers affecting the October 16, 2024 race outlook?
2:13–4:52
3
Why does early‑voter data in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan matter for the election?
4:52–7:06
4
What does Simon say about the significance of likely‑voter versus registered‑voter polling?
7:06–10:03
5
How are Republican‑run betting markets like Polymarket influencing election narratives?
10:03–12:47
6
What evidence is there that right‑wing groups are inflating poll averages to create a ‘red wave’?
12:47–15:05
7
Why is voting early crucial for Democratic GOTV strategy according to the hosts?
15:05–17:59
8
What actions does the show recommend listeners take to help win the 2024 election?
17:59–20:13
Speakers
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