Brian Parker

speaker

1,041 appearances 2 recordings 2 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 16 Apr

Brian Parker’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 2.

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money money money · economic update: fuel prices, oil, interest rates & inflation (with Brian Parker, Chief Economist at ART) · 14 Apr 2026 podcast

That's probably not going to happen.

I don't know.

I kind of know where you're heading with this because basically here's the thing.

If you – let's say you just had a one-off increase in the price of a whole range of things as a result of this war, okay, petrol being obvious, and let's say it flowed through – to the extent it flows through into other things like food and technology and plastics and stuff, let's assume –

It all happened very quickly.

And so you saw, as a result, from one quarter to the next or one month to the next, you had a big jump in the overall level of prices, okay, in the overall economy, okay?

The way inflation is measured is an annual change in prices.

So what is the level of prices now compared to a year ago, okay?

Just mathematically, if I have a big one-off increase in prices, compared to a year ago, the inflation rate has gone up.

Now, let's assume nothing happens at that level of prices.

So we don't get another shock.

The prices stay exactly where they are.

It means that the annual rate of inflation is still going to stay high for the next 12 months.

But the annual rate will still be quite a bit higher.

That's just mathematically.

It's just because of what we call the base effect.

Yes.

But 12 months down the track, you'll be comparing this level of prices to 12 months ago.

And all of a sudden, the inflation rate will fall back down to zero or fall back down to a normal level.

Okay.

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