James Deardorff
speaker
224 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Feb 2022
last heard Oct 2022
James Deardorff’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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So we want to make sure that we're targeting these um
These interventions to those most likely to benefit.
And so I mean um say Lee has done a lot of work on um a topic of um time to benefit.
So like for for colon cancer, uh it takes about ten years before you start to see uh a mortality benefit um for cancer screening.
And if you have an older adult who might have a life expectancy in the range of um two to three years, it might not make sense to continue screening for for cancer.
And that's that's a difficult decision to make and um providing these estimates can help.
Help clinicians and patients with that type of shared decision making.
Yeah, I mean I mean I think I think you run into these issues with all types of models and um Chad's VASC and um kind of 10-year AS or cardiovascular disease risk calculators all can be um misleading or miscalibrated in certain subgroups and populations and they're all prone to these these same errors that deal with
uh mortality.
I think probably like it might just be like the gut feeling of you're predicting someone's life expectancy rather than
Um
where it's where there's so much um it's I mean it's it's difficult to talk about someone's mortality and so uh there might just be that kind of knee-jerk reaction to to using some of these models whereas
Um I mean even even though strokes and heart attacks are also equally um can be equally problematic.
Um I think mortality as like the final final end path is is is is is it's more sensitive subject.
Yeah, I mean I think
Uh for end older adults with dementia, I mean, we know that the clinical course is highly variable.
And if you look at um previous kind of population-based studies, the median uh survival time after diagnosis is is really broad and can range based on the study from three to twelve years that's been reported previously.
And um
There have been a few mortality prediction models that have been um
done in the past.
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