Nate Silver

The most concise explanation is that people who are more college educated, who read the news more, are more likely to respond to surveys.

The most concise explanation is that people who are more college educated, who read the news more, are more likely to respond to surveys.

Like, oh, exciting, a pollster called in the phone.

Like, oh, exciting, a pollster called in the phone.

Like, oh, exciting, a pollster called in the phone.

Or who picks up the phone anymore? Well, people with high social trust answer all types of surveys more, right? Wow. Who has high social trust? It's Democrats. They are the establishment system party now, which didn't used to be true as much, right? Elaborate on that. Obama was like the disruptive candidate. His electorate was younger. His electorate was black, Hispanic.

Or who picks up the phone anymore? Well, people with high social trust answer all types of surveys more, right? Wow. Who has high social trust? It's Democrats. They are the establishment system party now, which didn't used to be true as much, right? Elaborate on that. Obama was like the disruptive candidate. His electorate was younger. His electorate was black, Hispanic.

Or who picks up the phone anymore? Well, people with high social trust answer all types of surveys more, right? Wow. Who has high social trust? It's Democrats. They are the establishment system party now, which didn't used to be true as much, right? Elaborate on that. Obama was like the disruptive candidate. His electorate was younger. His electorate was black, Hispanic.

Now the Democrats are kind of the party of college kids, white liberals. They're very trusting of the media. And so they both respond to polls more and vote Democratic more. And so if you don't adjust for that, you're going to have your poll oversample Democrats. That's a technical term I'm using slightly incorrectly on purpose, but...

Now the Democrats are kind of the party of college kids, white liberals. They're very trusting of the media. And so they both respond to polls more and vote Democratic more. And so if you don't adjust for that, you're going to have your poll oversample Democrats. That's a technical term I'm using slightly incorrectly on purpose, but...

Now the Democrats are kind of the party of college kids, white liberals. They're very trusting of the media. And so they both respond to polls more and vote Democratic more. And so if you don't adjust for that, you're going to have your poll oversample Democrats. That's a technical term I'm using slightly incorrectly on purpose, but...

You're going to end up with not enough Trump voters in your poll if Trump voters don't trust the media and you're not accounting for that in some respect.

You're going to end up with not enough Trump voters in your poll if Trump voters don't trust the media and you're not accounting for that in some respect.

You're going to end up with not enough Trump voters in your poll if Trump voters don't trust the media and you're not accounting for that in some respect.

And it's not that they even lie about who they're supporting. I mean, Trump voters are proud. They just said they aren't being reached in the first place, right? They're not picking up strangers' phone calls. If they are, they're not going to want to spend 15 minutes and take a survey. And that can shift. After the first assassination attempt against Trump, there's a lot more enthusiasm.

And it's not that they even lie about who they're supporting. I mean, Trump voters are proud. They just said they aren't being reached in the first place, right? They're not picking up strangers' phone calls. If they are, they're not going to want to spend 15 minutes and take a survey. And that can shift. After the first assassination attempt against Trump, there's a lot more enthusiasm.

And it's not that they even lie about who they're supporting. I mean, Trump voters are proud. They just said they aren't being reached in the first place, right? They're not picking up strangers' phone calls. If they are, they're not going to want to spend 15 minutes and take a survey. And that can shift. After the first assassination attempt against Trump, there's a lot more enthusiasm.

Like, I'm proud to be a Trump supporter. Certainly in 2016, maybe the Trump supporters were not easy to reach.

Like, I'm proud to be a Trump supporter. Certainly in 2016, maybe the Trump supporters were not easy to reach.

Like, I'm proud to be a Trump supporter. Certainly in 2016, maybe the Trump supporters were not easy to reach.