Nate Silver
speaker
1,377 appearances
5 recordings
5 series
first heard Feb 2025
last heard 29 Jun
Nate Silver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.
Appearances
I don't bet on politics, I bet on sports, but I'm always aware that like, yeah, there's the,
10% chance that the underdog you never see coming prevails.
Cape Verde ties with Spain or something, but that's pretty fundamentally driven, whereas on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss-up, probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly 50-50 or maybe 60% GOP.
They're almost perfectly correlated.
So if the odds of Democrats winning the Senate but not the House are like 1%.
If you go to Cal Sheer, Polymarket, whatever else, they have to be like around 1%.
So conditional Democrats winning the Senate, they'll almost certainly have won the House.
They'll almost certainly have won.
Governorships, which by the way, these things are important.
I think people probably focus too much on the national picture and not enough on what happens at the state level where people actually have executive power and you're picking the candidates and the policies for the next generation.
State legislatures are important.
If I were...
Talking to all the listeners, right, I'd say look for like a a city council candidate for whom your contribution might make a lot of difference.
But like, you know, if Democrats win the Senate, that means it's a really blue year to overcome the fact that you're winning in places like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska.
And if that happens, therefore, probably the rest of it, all the dominoes fall that way.
He's not.
So we have an article up on Silver Bulletin, which we'll publish shortly after we finish this podcast.
Newsom has fallen in Democratic primary polls from around 25% to 15%.
He's fallen on polling market from like 33% to 22% or something.
I think he was benefiting from some degree of name recognition, whereas now Democrats see a candidate like John Ossoff.
Showing 441–460 of 1,377 · page 23 of 69
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