Sally Auld
speaker
5,823 appearances
57 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 17 Aug
Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.
Appearances
that if you really want to nail inflation, uh, then you know, you can only do that successfully uh by imposing a greater cost on macroeconomic outcomes.
Oh no, not really.
Because I think, you know, things have shifted a bit.
Um, you know, and certainly our thinking around the RBA has shifted just in the last couple of weeks.
You know, we started the year thinking that they would only need to do a couple of rate hikes.
We characterise that as a modest recalibration of monetary policy, so not the start of a new tightening cycle, just an adjustment uh, you know, that would force a modest slowing in growth, a very
modest rise in the unemployment rate, get demand and supply back into balance and therefore generate inflation outcomes that were consistent with the with the inflation target.
And I think in the last six weeks, you know, we've moved on from that.
And so we're now forecasting a bit more of a an increase in the policy rate.
So three rate hikes in total.
And we actually see two sided risks to that forecast.
And what I mean
By that is that you can easily see an outcome uh you know where the bank might have to do less, and that would be the one where, you know, the global economy starts to slow and we worry about global recession and the impact that would have on the Australian economy.
But we can also see upside risk to that terminal cash rate forecast of 4.35.
And that would be the scenario where we are dealing with infl inflation expectations that have become
become somewhat uh de-anchored from sort of long term two and a half percent number, and we are dealing with uh, I guess, more second round effects in core inflation than than we expected, and possibly a period of you know higher inflation for longer.
And I think if if we add all of that and a growth backdrop that turned out to be a bit more resilient, then you could see a case where the RBA has to push further than four point.
three five on the cash rate and then you start to open up
you know, I guess some some more interesting scenarios for the for the economy, should that be the case.
Mm, I think so.
Showing 1601–1620 of 5,823 · page 81 of 292
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