Tapas Strickland
speaker
3,313 appearances
30 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Aug 2025
Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Um
When you l look at market pricing, market pricing wasn't greatly moved and indeed if you look at uh cuts priced by the end of twenty twenty twenty five, they only stand at fourteen point one basis point.
So the market isn't really convinced uh of um a greater need in terms of interest rate cuts there, but it does suggest that the Bank of Canada is becoming a little bit more cautious uh on the growth outlook there.
really interesting uh quarterly inflation numbers.
And just to give you a bit of background, uh RBA Governor Bullock noted um in her Anika Foundation address that the board was still uh waiting for Q two CPI data um just to uh hone in that expectation of uh inflation declining slowly towards that two and a half percent target.
And indeed, when you look at that trim mean measure, um that uh rose by zero point six percent Q and Q, uh one tenth below the zero point seven percent consensus.
There.
Although there was a small upward revision that did see the year-in-year number at 2.7%.
But either way, look at it, you look at the two the two-quarter annualized trim mean inflation is annualizing around 2.6% year-on-year, which is broadly close to the uh midpoint of the RBA's two to three percent inflation target.
There, so uh we think uh that would probably green light uh a RBA rate cut uh in August, uh but thereafter we think the
The RBA still has reasons uh to be cautious here.
And uh the statistician did note um that uh new dwelling uh purchases by own occupiers had been benign over the past few quarters because of promotional offers and incentives.
And when you think about the housing market and uh how it's reacting to the rate cuts we have seen, you've seen a pick up in auction clearance rates, you've seen a pick up in house prices right across the country.
Um that confidence could actually start to spill over in terms of
That new dwelling purchase price by owner occupiers.
Developers may not give as many incentives, or indeed may reduce incentives, may start to pass through some of the cost increases they're seeing, as we're starting to see across the NAB business survey as well.
So I think there's some reasons to think the RBA should be relatively cautious.
Um, but I think there is scope for them to cut rates in in August, as is NAB's view.
And just worth noting, the NAB business survey still shows relatively elevated cost growth for for.
purchase costs and labour costs as as
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