Tapas Strickland
speaker
3,313 appearances
30 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Aug 2025
Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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rise there.
So it obviously came in higher than expected.
But the most recent Office of Budget Responsibility, its borrowing estimates for the first three months of the fiscal year was $57.8 billion.
And that's pretty much broadly in line with what actually printed out there.
So maybe there's not too much further deterioration, but it certainly surprised the market there.
And I guess this is also coming in the context of demands for Europe to lift up defence spending.
How quickly can Europe actually ramp up that kind of defence spending if the fiscal position is coming under a little bit of strain at the same time?
Yes.
Yeah.
So I read was there wasn't too much new in the minutes, but I think there was two interesting snippets from there.
And one of them is in regards to productivity growth and the RBA staff have a forecast assumption on productivity growth returning to its longer term trend.
And basically since 2016 in Australia, in aggregate, we haven't seen much productivity growth whatsoever.
So you're starting to get the board, at least, starting to question that productivity growth assumption.
And there was this one line in here saying, members also observed that if productivity growth proves to have been persistently lower than had been the case historically…
The recent subdued outcomes for GDP growth may not have been far below the rate of growth in supply capacity.
So effectively, a lot of people have been talking about how the economy has been growing below trend, but perhaps trend growth is lower because productivity growth is just not picking up.
So I think that's quite important in terms of how much monetary stimulus may be needed in this environment.
And then the second one, as you're alluding to, in terms of where terminal is, is also in regards to where the neutral rate is.
There's some discussion around the staff's different models of the nominal neutral rate, some discussion that markets may have been carried away a little bit in terms of that type of analysis there, and a reminder that the
The staff's mean neutral rate out of its suite of models was about 2.7%, and a lot of people had thought, well, that provides scope for the RBA to lower rates to around that kind of level.
Showing 301–320 of 3,313 · page 16 of 166
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