Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Will US jobs survive the tariff war? · 4 May 2025 podcast

So our headline payrolls were 177,000 versus 138,000 expected and 185,000 previously.

So still reasonable pace of payrolls growth.

There were some down revisions to the prior two months, which took a slight bit of the gloss off, but there was some apprehension because some of the softness had been seen uh in the um soft data over the past couple of months that maybe that's gonna start showing in the hard data.

As early as April.

And at least uh in the payrolls report, it isn't really showing up there.

And some people have been citing that because uh the way uh payrolls asks the question in their survey, they ask how many people uh the firm had on their payrolls during any pay period that includes the 12th of the month.

Uh and so in effect the payrolls report predates a lot of the tariff announcements.

Mm-hmm.

Um so you wouldn't have expected to include very, very much.

So um we'll

Continue do expect that it will start to be reflected in the US labor market, but um that's gonna be reflected uh in the next uh coming months.

There, but in terms of what that means for the Fed, um the Fed has been saying for quite some time that um for them to cut interest rates, that's gonna require some cooling in the labor market.

And that cooling obviously isn't necessarily occurring just given the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent.

They're still very much worried um about.

about uh in inflation and uh warding off a potential lift in inflation expectations.

So they're gonna wait uh until they actually start to see that softening in the harder economic data.

Uh so um n we don't expect any chance of the Fed cutting rates this week.

But then when you look at June, I think there's only one more payrolls report until the June meeting.

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