Tapas Strickland

speaker
3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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And actually, when you look at the market reaction, we'll get to the details of it in in a second.
Markets have paired pricing uh for for rate cuts.
So a September rate cut uh is now only forty eight percent priced, uh, from seventy percent priced on Tuesday.
And when you look at N twenty twenty five, so
Where cumulative rate cut pricing now sits, it's at thirty seven basis points from forty six basis points on Tuesday.
So there has been a little bit of um pushing out in terms of uh r rate cut expectations and that really came on the back of uh Powell's press conference there.
And the press conference you'd have to say was probably a little bit more hawkish than you'd probably expect given that there were two dissenters to the on hold meeting.
Um but the two key
Yeah.
Uh re uh the two key reasons is he uh made it quite clear that the committee had not made any decision about September, so it was keeping guidance pretty neutral there.
Um then as well as that continue to say uh you don't see any weakening in the labour market, although they do see a bit of downside risk there.
And importantly, and I think this is probably really what got the market's attention there, is uh what we've seen now is the very beginnings of whatever the effects turn out.
To be on goods inflation.
So, some sense that we're maybe a little bit early in terms of trying to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation.
And indeed, uh the company reporting season that has just uh been through, uh there's some reports from uh Procter and Gamble and from uh Adidas as well, really suggesting that uh they're waiting for the finalization of tariffs and trade deals before they started adjusting prices.
Well
Yes, yes, exactly.
But I guess for the Fed, uh it's not only the kind of consumer demand, but it's also the prices side of the story.
And um Adidas particular uh said the company was awaiting confirmation on the duties and it said it will adjust prices once the final rates are known.
So that August one date, obviously uh those uh adjustments will be known.
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