Tapas Strickland

speaker

3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Future plans · 16 Mar 2025 podcast

So if that's phase

phased in o over time then that would be more supportive f for markets.

But if it's not phased in and it lets impose relatively quickly, then obviously that would have the opposite effect.

Well perhaps uh and at least some of the commentary out there suggests that the headline Rango um wage agreement, which I think was five point four six percent, uh was a touch stronger than what the Bank of Japan had expected and they thought it would be about the same as last year's initial report, which is I think about five point two eight percent.

So uh with with that in mind, maybe things are um lifting a little bit faster in terms of wages, but probably not hot enough to really spike.

too much of a change in the internal debate in in in Japan.

So I think most people are still expecting the first rate high to be a around July.

Wow, wow indeed.

And it is uh a little bit tr troubling 'cause uh the US Fed various speakers have all pointed towards the fact that they can look through a lot of these tariff impacts if inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored.

I guess in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment uh survey, it's still very partisan.

Um so if you look at um the headline index and you look at consumer sentiment, consumer sentiment for Republicans.

Are much more positive than consumer sentiment for Democrats.

And the same thing on the inflation expectations front.

Inflation expectations for Democrats have absolutely soared, but inflation expectations for Republicans are at relatively low levels.

So looking at some of the other consumer surveys out there, such as the New York Consumer Survey, that didn't really show a lift last week.

And some of the market measures haven't really shown too much of a lift.

uh at at all.

So it's it's it's unclear how much you should read into that one single uh inflation uh expectation measure.

Uh but no doubt it adds to a lot of the cautiousness out there in terms of the potential impact of tariffs on on on inflation.

But again, um in terms of whether that price level increase from the potential for tariffs leads to inflation, so persistent changes in the price level, um, that will only really occur

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