Foiled plot: did Iran plan British base attack?
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What happened at RAF Fairford and why is it being linked to Iran?
The Economist.
Hello, and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Bloor.
And I'm Jason Palmer.
Today on the show, the Iran conflict has boosted oil firms' profits, and why women's earnings go up when their male manager has a baby daughter. But first… Five men remain in custody after explosives were found near RAF Fairford, a British airbase used by American forces about 25 miles from Oxford. The men were detained close to the base in the early hours of Sunday morning and arrested under the Explosives Act and on suspicion of preparing a terrorist offence. We don't know yet which group is behind the incident, but suspicion so far has focused on one possible perpetrator.
We don't know all the details yet. The strong suspicion is that this may be an example of Iranian hybrid warfare.
Matthew Simons is a contributing editor at The Economist.
We've seen quite a lot of that in the UK, but we don't know for certain yet. If it is Iranian, then this would mark a significant escalation.
Matthew, we'll come on to that in a minute. Tell me first of all what we know about what happened.
Well, it's an extraordinary story, really. There were three people in a car coming back from a party in the small hours of Sunday morning, and they saw some suspicious activity near Fairford Air Base. And what they saw was, first of all, three white vans about 300 yards away from the air base perimeter in a sort of fan shape. And then a little bit later, they saw men wearing balaclavas and black outfits gathering around. They rang a number that they had been given as an emergency number for the airbase. Nobody replied. They then rang 999, which is the emergency UK number for the police. And then things happened pretty rapidly with helicopters arriving and police. And as far as we know, the people were rounded up pretty quickly and were taken away.
And that's all we know for certain. But the suspicion is because the police evacuated
How does the Fairford incident fit into Iran’s pattern of hybrid warfare?
the immediate area that there were explosives, which were intended to detonate soon. And that was a reason for the evacuation. But again, nothing has been confirmed yet.
And just give us a bit of context. Why were the US using a British base?
Well, this had been a UK sovereign base always, but the Americans have used this for a very long time. It's part of our agreements under NATO and with the US bilaterally. This base is, I think, almost entirely used by the U.S., and it flies B-17 transport aircraft, it flies B-1 bombers, even B-52s. I mean, these are big, noisy aircraft, so it has a significant presence in the neighborhood. And it is a crucial base for America when operating, particularly in either Europe or the Middle East. And indeed, it has been... a very important base for the US in terms of its war with Iran.
Now, Matthew, you said that this fits into a pattern of escalating hybrid warfare attacks by Iran. Explain that.
For a long time, there has been Iranian hybrid activity in the UK. It's mostly been aimed towards either the Jewish community or against Iranian dissidents in the UK. There was also an attack on an Iranian London-based TV station about two years ago. Even before this year's war, MI5, the UK's secret intelligence service, had been flagging Iranian activity as a serious threat. MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said in October that service had tracked more than 20 potentially lethal Iranian back plots in the UK over a 12-month period. But when the Iran war kicked off earlier this year, the frequency and the level of attacks began to increase. And the Iranians made it clear when the previous Prime Minister, Keir Starmer,
agreed that Fairford could be used to attack defensive targets, not offensive. So in other words, it couldn't be used to attack Iranian infrastructure, but it could be used to attack missile launchers, for example. The Iranians made it clear at that time that they would regard any such military activity originating from the UK as a legitimate target.
We don't know what happened at Fairford. We don't know who was arrested.
Why would an Iranian attack on a UK airbase be considered a major escalation?
What do we know about the people who carried out the other attacks you've just spoken about?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What happened at RAF Fairford and why is it being linked to Iran?
0:03–3:01
2
How does the Fairford incident fit into Iran’s pattern of hybrid warfare?
3:01–5:38
3
Why would an Iranian attack on a UK airbase be considered a major escalation?
5:38–8:36
4
How has the Iran‑U.S. conflict boosted oil companies’ profits?
8:36–10:57
5
What are oil majors doing with the windfall from soaring oil prices?
10:57–13:11
6
Will the current oil boom delay the transition to renewables?
13:11–15:38
7
How does a male manager’s newborn daughter affect women’s earnings at his firm?
15:38–17:21
8
What policy ideas could address the hidden bias revealed by the ‘daughter effect’ study?
17:21–19:48