Nick Denton's Big Bet Against the United States
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, what do you think the rich people are doing these days? You know, like I know there's a lot of like big business people lining up or who have lined up behind the the Trump administration, but they have to be kind of anxious, right? Because things like mass tariffs and so forth. talk about reducing the role of the dollar in global trade. It has gotta make them kind of anxious.
I I actually know the answer to this. Oh yeah. Um As a rich person. No. As a um because the New York Fed publishes a survey of consumer sentiment where you can break it out by pay bracket. And so the highest pay bracket, it's probably not the super, super rich, but it is pretty rich. And yeah, they're getting worried for all the reasons you just laid out.
But I do think if you exist in a pay bracket, that already sort of suggests that you're not that right. You're not the real you're not the real you know, you're getting a pay bracket.
What high standards do you have, Joe?
But anyway, I think these are really interesting times, needless to say, for the globe, for people who have money, for people who have feet around the world where they want to bet. You know, one of the things I wrote about it last week, we're recording this March twenty fifth. You know, one of the big trades that really had been characterized for the last fifteen years is like bet on the US literally against everything. Right.
By the S P five hundred.
And just, you know, you're n you get no payment for global diversification. You didn't make any money in China. You lost money. You didn't get any pay for EM. You didn't really get anything in Europe. At least for a couple weeks so far this year, that's reversed pretty sharply. And so one question is like, if you want glory, should you look outside the US borders these days?
Right. Diversification finally potentially paying off. Although again, it's only been like three weeks. I know we have seen a lot of people, in fact, we've recorded episodes about this talking about how this is a huge sea change in global politics, potentially in global markets as well. This big moment similar to the fall of the Soviet Union, something that could forever alter Europe's economic and political and security path. So we'll see.
Big things are happening. Like in Germany, is like we're gonna spend hundreds of billions of dollars on defense, which they've really never done. That's uh that's a change. So, anyway, I'm really excited about our guest. Someone I've known and talked to numerous times over the years, but we've never had on the podcast.
Why is Nick Denton moving his family from New York to the Budapest hills?
Uh luminary in the worlds of journalism, previously a financial journalist, an interesting guy who suddenly popped up. He started posting again recently. recently. And so that'll I was like, oh, maybe he's in New York City these days. We're gonna be speaking with Nick Denton. He used to work at the FT, where you used to work, and he wrote a book. And many most people would probably know him as the founder of the Gawker family of websites. He currently has a new thing called a Futura Kiado If it's gonna be some sort of journalism trading kind of hybrid, maybe we'll find out what that is. Nick, thank you so much for coming on Ot Lots.
It's gonna be fun, I can tell alright.
I have a question. I've known you for a long time, but I've never asked you this. I actually don't know the answer to this. Well how would you describe your political ideology?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:17
2
Why is Nick Denton moving his family from New York to the Budapest hills?
3:17–9:17
3
How did Denton’s investment strategy shift from the S&P 500 to China and emerging markets?
9:17–17:29
4
What does Denton see as the biggest business story of our time – the fall of Elon Musk?
17:29–25:39
5
Why does Denton believe the Atlanticist dream is over and Europe is turning against the US?
25:39–33:39
6
How does Denton assess political risk when valuing stocks and regions?
33:39–39:10
7
What role does AI play in Denton’s new venture and his approach to market research?
39:10–41:56
8
How does Denton view the future of Chinese tech versus US giants like Tesla and Meta?
41:56–43:26
Speakers
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