ep 377 | How is the second half of 2026 shaping up?
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On Point with Craig's Investment Partners. The information provided here is general in nature and it's not financial advice. It doesn't take into account your situation, objectives, goals or risk tolerance. All investments are subject to risks and none are guaranteed. Before you make any investment decisions, we recommend you contact an investment advisor. For more information about our services or to view the Craig's Investment Partners Financial Advice Provider Disclosure Statement, please visit our website which is craigsip.com. Welcome to On Point. I'm Mark Lister, Investment Director at Craig's Investment Partners, and I'll be talking about a range of topics including economics, portfolio strategy, investor education, and anything else that's happening out there in financial markets.
Hey team, hope you're all well. We're pretty much at the halfway point of the year, so let's take stock of where we're at, what's happened in the first six months and then let's take a bit of a look ahead to what is coming up in the second half. I'm recording this on Tuesday the 30th of June, so there's one day to go. All the numbers that I'm quoting you are one day out, but pretty much there or thereabouts in terms of us hitting that halfway point today. at the end of the 30th of June. So this first six months of 2026, they've been volatile, haven't they? Puntuated by the conflict in Iran. Despite that, markets have actually performed very, very well. When I look at world shares... Right now, they are up year-to-date a very healthy 9.6%, so up almost 10%, which is great from six months.
At one point, they were down 9.5% from their peak. If you take the March lows, so I think that was sort of the final week of March, they were almost 10% down from their highs, not from the start of the year. but from the highs that they reached earlier in that first quarter. But right now up 10%, great return for the first six months. Some markets have been stronger again. Emerging market shares right now are up 21.5% this year, and Japan is up 16.8%. So there have been some very, very good returns on offer. biggest market in the world the most high profile is the united states and the s p 500 index has increased 8.7 over this first half with one day to go that is a great return for just six months but when you look under the hood there are some quite big divergences the magnificent seven cohort of stocks for example it is actually down slightly the mag seven is down one and a half percent so far this year
And at the other end of the spectrum, the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies, that is up more than 20%. So there have been some big moves between different sectors. Across the Tasman, the Aussie market is marginally higher, the UK and Europe up 6% to 8% each. Currency moves have played a role. They've boosted returns for some markets. We've seen the Kiwi dollar fall quite a bit against the Aussie dollar. And the US dollar, so that is pushed up returns, it's risen slightly against some of the other majors, so some swings and roundabouts there. The local share market, the NZX50, has again lagged international stocks. It is pretty much flat year to date. And that sluggish performance has mirrored what we've seen from the housing market.
House prices so far this year are slightly lower compared to where they started, and sales activity is down almost 5% on last year. So it's been a tough environment for local investors, whether you've been in property or in shares. So hopefully all of you listening have had healthy exposures to international assets, as I'm sure your Craigs advisor is reminding you very frequently. However, investors, business owners will be very much hoping to put that first half behind them as the odds of a resolution in the Middle East to that conflict have improved drastically in recent days. Ships are moving again through the Strait of Hormuz and US crude oil has traded under $70 a barrel in recent days. That is more than 35% down recently.
from the april highs which are over 110 us dollars a barrel so we are nearly back at pre-conflict levels and if you've visited a petrol station lately you will have noticed that the prices have come right back from where they were a month or two ago
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Chapters
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