How the "Islamic NATO" Shifts Global Geopolitics
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What makes the new “Islamic NATO” agreement a watershed moment for the Middle East?
Hello and welcome to this special extended edition podcast from Geopolitical Futures. Last week, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact that could prove a watershed moment for the Middle East and the wider world. They're calling the agreement the Islamic NATO because, amongst other things, it includes a NATO Article V style clause, promising in effect that an attack on one is an attack on all. If it holds, the alliance could form a long-term defense structure for the region, and its ripples will be felt much further from India to China, to the US and the world at large, a world that is very much in realignment. And to do so, we are joined by Geopolitical Futures Chairman and Founder George Friedman, and by Cameron Bukhari, a GPF contributor and senior director of the Eurasian Security and Prosperity portfolio at the New Lines Institute in Washington.
Welcome to you both. I want to start with a high-level question, really, which is: how big a deal is this, both for the region or for the world?
Well, for the region it's enormous. It creates a potential center of gravity and Around which the re The regional Operate. and having the power to in many ways organize this region. For the world De Middle East becoming coherent. And more powerful the will have a significant effect, particularly in the regions around This re uh the Middle East. Say India. China. As well as to something that Europe. They will be deeply affected. Along with relieving the American duty or Lack of duty but still involvement in the region.
I agree with George. Um, I'll add that. This is probably or in my view, definitively the most volatile region of the world. There's always conflict. There are many fault lines. There have been since the end of World War One. Uh so yes, uh finally you have the makings, the early sort of uh pieces of an architecture that an emerging architecture. Uh but it's also uh in my view uh significant for the globe because it fits very nicely with the um US attempt to retrench itself. And th the whole burden sharing and burden shifting doctrine that Uh, the current administration has been rolling out. And we see this playing out with the Europeans taking more up more responsibility with regards to Ukraine. We see this happening in the Western Pacific with the remilitarization of Japan and other allies uh coming together to uh maintain security and stability uh in that part of the world.
In the Middle East, the it was always a challenge. Who's gonna do this? And uh it was not going to be uh, you know, the smaller players. It had to be the big players. But even amongst the big players, you have disparity. Uh Turkey is a major strategic power. Uh it is a major military force. It does have the uh geopolitical heft to to uh undertake uh this kind of role. But Saudi Arabia has the financial power, uh, but not necessarily uh you know, the strategic power, at least not in the military sense. So this was always going to be a tag team. And given the historical relationship between the Turks and the Saudis, uh, it was difficult to see that they would just be the primary players in this. And so therefore Pakistan being brought in.
actually ahead of time by the Saudis last year, uh, you know makes more sense, brings more coherence to this emerging picture. I if I had to bet, I'd say, you know, at some point Egypt will be brought into this uh space as well, and there'll be other smaller actors playing a role uh as well.
Well look, let's break that down a little bit, Cameron. I mean, you wrote an article last week for geopolitical futures, actually, just a few days before this announcement came out, pointing out the need for something like this. Uh uh We've actually spoken a few times on this podcast before about the uh the growing um uh uh friendship, for want of a better word, between Turkey and Saudi Arabia as sort of uh balancing forces in the Middle East. A decade ago, something like that would have seemed seemed fanciful where they were more like rivals. Uh what made you think that this would be happening, that this would happen when you wrote that piece last week?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What makes the new “Islamic NATO” agreement a watershed moment for the Middle East?
0:06–9:25
2
How does the Article V‑style clause change security dynamics for Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan?
9:25–15:46
3
What are the broader geopolitical ripple effects of the pact on India, China and the United States?
15:46–22:24
4
How is Iran reacting to the emergence of this regional defense alliance?
22:24–29:41
5
Why are India and Pakistan closely watching the alliance and what could it mean for their rivalry?
29:41–38:44
6
In what ways does the pact reflect the United States’ strategy of retrenchment and burden‑sharing?
38:44–47:47
7
How will the new alliance affect Israel’s security calculations and its relationship with regional powers?
47:47–53:44
8
What are the long‑term scenarios for the “Islamic NATO” and its impact on global geopolitics?
53:44–1:00:39