The US-Iran "Gut Check" and the Future of European Defense
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What is the focus of this week's NATO summit and the US‑Iran tensions?
Hello there, I'm Christian Smith and this is a podcast from Geopolitical Futures. NATO's annual summit is over at what is a busy and quite critical time for the Alliance. President Trump is frustrated with his partners' contributions to their own defence and to his war with Iran. The US is reducing troop numbers in parts of Europe and the war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new stage. But the summit didn't lead to the collapse of the alliance, as some feared it might start. The same, though, can't be said for the US-Iranian ceasefire. So today on the podcast, we take a look at what we learned from the summit, whether America's attitude towards NATO is settling, and the growing significance of Turkey in the alliance.
But first, as the US-Iranian ceasefire appears to be breaking down, we discussed what next for the conflict that no one knows how to end. I am joined by Geopolitical Futures Chairman and Founder, George Friedman. George, let's look at Iran. As you said on this podcast about three weeks ago or so when we were discussing the ceasefire, the memorandum of understanding, the deal, whatever you want to call it, whether the ceasefire would hold at that moment was very unclear. We seem to have more of an answer now. It seems to have broken down. I mean, we're recording this on YouTube. Thursday afternoon. So between now and when this goes out, things may have changed again. But we seem to be back to where we started.
Is this just a blip in the process of negotiation? Where does it all go from here?
Well, it certainly could be a breakdown in the negotiations. It also could be a fundamental part in the negotiations. In poker, there's a term called the gut check. When you raise somebody and just to measure what he will do, okay? So in this case, when we take a look at the collapse, the Americans are primarily focusing on the areas around the Straits of Hormuz, hitting some facilities elsewhere. The Iranians are primarily doing what they did before, hitting American bases in the region. So it could be the opening of a war, but the war has not changed its fundamental dimension. No one in the United States, from the United States, has been invading Iran. That would be a massive breakdown. The Iranians are not attacking U.S.
forces, but they are attacking U.S. bases and so on and so forth. So they're doing what they did before. Sometimes in negotiation, you really want to check how much you can get in this deal. And do a gut check by throwing up your hand and saying, I don't want this deal. I'm going to keep on doing what I'm doing. Not because you don't want the deal. You just want to see if the other guy gives a little. This could be that. Given the fact that this is not out of keeping with the battling that was going on before, which could not defeat the United States, nor could it defeat Iran, okay, and it's still being held in that constraint, I see a possibility, a very real one, that this is simply each side taking the measure of the other to see who more badly wants peace agreement.
It could also escalate out of control, but I do not see any circumstance under which American troops would try to invade Iran. They have a vast army, well-trained and so on. The RGC is massive. That's just not going to happen likely. And it's not likely we will win as with the many wars we'd fought in the past.
How is the US‑Iran ceasefire breaking down and what does a “gut check” mean?
So I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think the Iranians will do anything so desperate, such as launching weapons against the United States. I do have a possibility of what they have. I don't know if they can attack the United States, but it's not clear to me that they may not have positioned covert forces inside the United States. designed to carry out terrorist operations. That hasn't happened yet. They may have done this, they may not have. This is pure speculation on my part. But I'm not seeing that happen either. So the fundamental relationship has not shifted. Each side was hitting the other, and no one's quite escalated beyond that.
What would make you think that the situation has changed?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the focus of this week's NATO summit and the US‑Iran tensions?
0:06–4:22
2
How is the US‑Iran ceasefire breaking down and what does a “gut check” mean?
4:22–8:44
3
What indicators would show the United States escalating the Iran conflict?
8:44–13:16
4
Why is the United States reducing troops in Europe and what are the implications for NATO?
13:16–17:57
5
How are European countries responding to defense‑spending targets and US expectations?
17:57–22:27
6
What is the UK's new defence‑spending plan and is it enough for NATO’s future?
22:27–25:45
7
Why is Turkey becoming a pivotal NATO member and how does its geography affect regional security?
25:45–30:22
8
Will NATO’s Article 5 collective‑defence survive the next 50 years?
30:22–34:46