Why the US-Iran Deal Could End in Crisis
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What is the initial US‑Iran memorandum and what does it actually include?
Hello and welcome to this podcast from Geopolitical Futures. I'm Christian Smith. Well, after three and a half months of on and off war, we finally seem to have an initial deal to end the conflict between the US and Iran. For now, at least. What we know about this memorandum of understanding so far, what we think we know, of course, because it hasn't been officially released, is that it includes the following: the fact that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen over the next thirty days. Iran will be able to export its own oil. Iran has reiterated that it will never create a nuclear weapon. Iran. May also be able to use a $300 billion development fund if it meets commitments linked to its nuclear program.
The US will ease sanctions and uh probably in many respects, uh very importantly, uh the final terms of the deal, including in relation to that nuclear program, will be negotiated over 60 days. 60 days from when it decide whether that is this week or whenever that ends up happening. It's currently scheduled for Friday. So where does that leave us? Well, today on the podcast we look at what the deal means for the players involved and the geopolitics of the Middle East. And George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and Chairman as well, is here with me to give it a go. George, uh first question, obvious question. Uh what did you make of the deal and what we know of it so far? There was no deal made.
There was a sixty day. Cease fire. And opening the s na uh sea routes and so on and so forth. But the fundamental questions that the war began on were not answered. One question was We went to war based on the threat of nuclear weapons. There is no agreement on that from At this point. So what we really have is not an understanding, an agreement. We have a sixty day pause in the war, pause in the Interruptions of Logistics and so on. And in those sixty days we have to reach an agreement. And the question is, will we be able to do that? And uh I honestly can't tell you. But what I can say is that the fundamental demand of the United States was not met The fundamental demand of the Iranians Of being First, not attacked by the Americans.
Getting the Israelis out of uh Lebanon. And so these things have not been settled.
So this is simply uh Good looking. Negotiating period
In the middle of a war that's suspended for the time being, but no agreement has been reached.
Is it not a step in the right direction though? It's a it's a help from where we were before, particularly with the Strait of Hormoes.
Well, where we were before was negotiating. Do the Pakistanis and various things. And now we're going to be sitting at tables and possibly having sips of coffee and so on and so forth. In that sense it's an improvement. But negotiations have been going on. between the United States and Iran Through the Pakistanis. And others. So in fact this is Overstated what it's called a settlement. Because the fundamental issue is not settled. If this is the terms of the settlement, which is they keep their nuclear weapons And the Iranians have conceded to some extent that they may not close the Straits of Hormuz and so on. Well, that's at best a temporary ceasefire.
Let me ask then, I mean I mean do you think and we might come into this a bit later with a bit more detail, but initially, do you think that a deal can be done then?
All wars end. They either end in defeat of the enemy or Or a negotiation. I do not think the United States is able without massive cost, massive cost in lives and to defeat the Iranians, who are quite capable of defending themselves, nor do I think the Iranians can defeat the United States. Therefore, since all wars end, this one will end negotiations. Whether they do it in these sixty days, well, they may. But at the same time, we've just got an agreement to negotiate. And temporarily hold hostilities. But The Iranians have made it clear that unless that agreement included А the end of Ізраїлі презент і Лебан. There's no deal. And the Israelis have not agreed to that at this point.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the initial US‑Iran memorandum and what does it actually include?
0:06–8:31
2
How realistic is the 60‑day cease‑fire and what must be achieved in that period?
8:31–17:21
3
Why does the cease‑fire not resolve the core nuclear dispute between the US and Iran?
17:21–25:21
4
What role did Pakistan play as a go‑between in the US‑Iran talks?
25:21–33:02
5
How do the military strengths of Iran, the US and Israel shape the negotiation dynamics?
33:02–40:21
6
What are the implications of Iran’s nuclear bargaining chip for a future settlement?
40:21–41:24