Iran's Nuclear Gamble and Trump's Midterm Countdown
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Why does George Friedman describe the US‑Iran conflict as an “elective” rather than an existential war?
We're five months on from the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran. I don't know about you, but it feels like it's been going on much longer than that. With the seemingly never-ending scenario of tit-for-tat strikes, ceasefire, then not ceasefire, if you blockade me, I'll blockade you. On this podcast, we try to look at what Iran's strategy is now and how successful that might be. Hello and welcome to this podcast from Geopolitical Futures. My name is Christian Smith and I'm joined on the pod by GPF's chairman and founder, George Friedman. And we're looking ahead to the US midterms and how the war with Iran might impact then. George, hello, welcome. Good to be here. So to start off with, let's take a step back and look at this war and perhaps the pantheon of American wars.
We've just had the 250th anniversary of American independence going, stretching from all the way back then to now. How does this war pan out in terms of existentialism for the US?
Well, first of all, we have to remember that we've had, tragically, 14 casualties, 14 deaths. This is not a very intense war by the United States. Vietnam, we had massive losses, 50,000 died. So put this war in those contexts, we're not really at war yet, even though we're trading punches. So we haven't moved that heavily into it. But when we take a look at what this war means in the United States, It's of some importance, but there are existential wars which would threaten the future of the United States, and elective wars, which we choose to do. So World War II was essentially an existential war. If we had lost it, beaten by Japan or by Germany, the future of the United States would be very much in question.
The wars in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, they were choices that were made, okay? They were selections. This war in Iran should be looked at that way. This is not a threat to the United States except with one dimension, which is the fundamental reason that President Trump is saying we're going to war, which is their nuclear capability. As I've said before on this podcast, one of the reasons of the war was the fear that if the Iranians developed a nuclear weapon, the possibility of a nuclear 9-11, the ability to send a false flag ship, a nuclear weapon into New York Harbor was possible. Al-Qaeda's remnants, it's a shattered regime, but the remnants are given, they were the ones who did 9-11, they're given sanctuary in Iran.
So we look at the Iranian relationships with these people, and we look at their ideology, the fear is not completely irrational. So in that sense, if they gained a nuclear weapon, they would pose an existential threat possibly to the United States. Thus, if you hear everything that Trump is saying, he's constantly talking about the nuclear capability. So at this point, it's not an existential war. In other words, we are not going to collapse because of this war. The economies may be troubled and so on, but we will not collapse.
How does the nuclear capability of Iran shape the United States’ strategic calculus?
On the other hand, if we simply leave them to develop nuclear weapons, I think is the president's view of it, at some point it may become existential. So this is an attempt to head that off.
It's an interesting question. Obviously, we can have a debate about what existential means, whether it's, as you say, World War II, America, as it was known, probably wouldn't have been able to exist, continue to exist if it had lost that. Now, I suppose you could ask the question, you could say it's not existential, but a nuclear attack in some variety on the U.S., by Iran, however likely or unlikely, wouldn't cause America to collapse. But you could argue that that's such a red line, it's almost existential. I mean, sorry, you go, George.
Well, no, when you talk about existential, you mean survival. But you also mean catastrophic events, okay? So let's say that the United States survived in a world where Japan and Germany were the fundamental powers. and we had lost the war, that would be existential in the sense that the way we existed would be dramatically shifted. It might be death, but it would be catastrophic.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why does George Friedman describe the US‑Iran conflict as an “elective” rather than an existential war?
0:06–4:17
2
How does the nuclear capability of Iran shape the United States’ strategic calculus?
4:17–9:24
3
What are the political pressures in the United States that limit Trump’s military options?
9:24–12:54
4
How is Iran using the Strait of Hormuz and economic pressure as part of its long‑term strategy?
12:54–16:18
5
Why does Iran aim to force a pre‑midterm settlement rather than a decisive military victory?
16:18–20:39
6
What are the possible outcomes for Trump’s presidency if the war drags into the November elections?
20:39–24:17
7
How do negotiation tactics and “gambles” on both sides affect the likelihood of a nuclear deal?
24:17–27:47
8
What does Friedman predict for the future of the Iran conflict and US‑Middle East policy?
27:47–31:44