The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Aggro Lions, the Sleeper-ish Hawks, Million-Dollar Picks, and Jesse Ventura on His Surprise WWE Return
Fri, 06 Dec 2024
The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss the Lions surviving the Packers on 'TNF,' talk through the NFL weekend slate, and make the Million-Dollar Picks for Week 14 (2:35), before looking at the updated NBA win totals, "make the playoffs" bets, likely trade teams, and more (44:44). Then, Bill talks with Jesse "The Body" Ventura about his return to WWE broadcasting, his rocky exit from pro wrestling, filming 'Predator' and 'Running Man,' his political career as a mayor and later governor of Minnesota, and much more (1:11:36). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House and Jesse Ventura Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What happened in the Lions vs. Packers game?
They had the ball first down after that long completion over the middle. And they were inside the 20. And then all of a sudden, they're settling for a field goal. And I really feel like they had it.
Well, it was first and goal. And there was, to me, a very suspicious pass interference, offensive pass interference call that pushed them way back. Yeah, it didn't. I mean... the number of times that occurs in a football game and it goes uncalled and they were inside of, it happened like virtually at the line of scrimmage. So are you, wait a second.
Are you giving me, you think that we are headed toward a lion's bills, conspiracy Superbowl, the two losers, somebody has to win. This is good. Al has now ordered that in.
Not only, I love that. And you know, who especially loves it is cousin Sal. Cause I think that was his prediction for, I think it was the, the Superbowl matchup for this season. Um, I like, look, I'm not going to, you know, say bad things about it. Detroit is an A-side team now. Detroit gets A-side calls.
Well, explain that because that's a Raheem phrase that you guys do on Ring or Gambling Show. For my audience, they might not know what that is, but it's Raheem's best thing. Yeah, it's like his best theory. I love it. But explain the A-side.
I'll try and do it. It's when you've achieved a certain status when you have. And the best example of it in the NFL is the Chiefs, where every week it feels like every call that might go their way does go their way. Every ball that bounces seems to find the hands of the team that is the A-side team. I think it's basically that concept.
Yeah, it's like the, it's a Monday night game. Somebody's getting three and a half in their home and you could just tell in the first quarter the calls are going their way and it's like, oh, they're the A side today. It's a good one. LeBron's been the A side in the NBA for like 15 years. The Warriors had a few A-side runs on their end too, but it's a good theory.
But yeah, I felt like considering that Love had 31 yards at halftime, they seemed completely blindsided by how good the Lions defense looked in that first drive when they were just flying in and hounding them. And then they found something with the run game.
Then they started taking shots deep and it felt like by the time we're in the fourth quarter, it actually felt like the Packers were a slightly better team. And then they just couldn't couldn't hold the Lions off. They got that for that big fourth down stop. And if I'm the Packers, I'm feeling good. I can play with that team.
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Chapter 2: What are the Million-Dollar Picks for Week 14?
Chapter 3: How is the NBA shaping up this season?
And I always feel like that Packers didn't get that thing tie game.
four minutes left and it's like fuck you guys probably lost I don't think you're stopping the Lions I think they're gonna get in a field goal range and win the game like didn't you have that feeling yeah of course yes the only thing that put it into doubt at all was uh crazy Dan Campbell going for it on that fourth down well I wonder I mean I wonder like the pie chart of that decision making where they didn't get it before and I do think there's like a
attitude piece to when he's been doing this for three years, right?
No doubt. No doubt.
And it's like, if I go for it here and we get it, I kind of win our swagger back. If I kick the field goal combined with us not getting it before, our swagger's in like a tiny bit of a question. And I, you know, he's just aggro. That's who he is.
Yeah, it's true. And I do wonder, it can't be part of the affirmative calculation when he's sitting there making the decision. But there is got to be something in terms of the identity. Like, this is who we are. This is what we do. We have to do it. We don't waver from it. We can't waver from our identity. This is who we are. We plow ahead. We plow ahead.
And it did have the desired outcome, which was not giving the Green Bay Packers the football back.
The nerds didn't like it. It was like, I think, 4%. probability was better if they just kicked it for winning the game, which I was surprised by. Okay. But I liked it. I thought they were going to get it. I always judge this stuff by... Do I think they're going to get it?
Like, I was, you know, obviously rooting for the Packers with the plus points and hoping that the Lions would kick the field goal and really worried that not only were they going to get it, but they were going to be the thing where they, like, break through and get the touchdown. I don't know. It's just the whole thing made me nervous. So, are the Lions still the best team to you? Sure. Yes.
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Chapter 4: What are Jesse Ventura's thoughts on his WWE return?
I know.
I'm with you. Let's take a break. We'll talk about the rest of the games. Sometimes in basketball, 30 points could be worth more than 30 points. So now you can get a 30% profit boost for the Ringer with FanDuel's 30 on 30 during Friday's NBA action.
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So, House, on the Ringer Gambling Show today, you were talking about a parlay. And I was listening to it and I already had it written down. And I texted it to the thread, the Sunday pregame thread, before I heard you actually toss out the parlay. And it was basically the torn Achilles parlay. It was take Minnesota against Atlanta and take Miami against the Jets. short cousins, short Rogers.
This is, it's like, I think plus one Oh nine, something like that.
I mean, both of those guys left legs are shorter, so it makes sense. Right.
And I like the symmetry of it. And I, and I was like, I would love to do that. I would love to bet against Kirk cousins again. And, uh, and obviously Miami at home. I actually think Miami is a little undervalued now because the Packers Thursday night game threw everyone off the scent. But it was cold weather Thursday night. What the fuck do you think was going to happen?
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Chapter 5: What bets should I consider for the upcoming NFL games?
No opposing QB has gone 2-0 against the spread against him in the same season. Straight up against him. Straight up against him.
Yeah.
Straight up.
Straight up.
So Jameis beat them in that fluky, stupid Thursday snow game. Right. Which had all the makings of a stay away, and then it turned out it was. And... I continue to think the Steelers team's a little undervalued. I actually think this line should be higher than six and a half, but I'm delighted that the money line is only minus 310.
And I feel like this is a gift from the gods and we have to put it in somewhere.
Yeah, I like that a lot. I like the money line just fine. Over history in these division games, when Pittsburgh has been favored around six in that neighborhood, it doesn't, you know, the underdog division opponent tends to cover. And that's been, you know, sort of the Tomlin thing. You grab Tomlin and the Steelers when they are underdogs and you fade them against the spread when they're faves.
But this is a situation where we're just looking for the Steelers to win. I don't want to mess around with the points. I mean, the ceiling and the floor with Jameis are, it's like, you know, Mount Everest, you know, the variance there. So, yeah. Let's just go ahead and pick the Steelers to win, have that be a leg, and then we can move on with our lives.
So Steelers, you could tease them with the over of 37.5, which I wanted to discuss quickly, even though it's December, a little colder. But the fact that the Browns will not be able to run the ball at all, and Nick Chubb, I love Nick Chubb, but it really feels like maybe he should have sat this year out.
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Chapter 6: Can the Atlanta Hawks make the playoffs?
Chapter 7: What insights did Bill gain from the Denver live show?
But that's my point. Usually, like the NBA is in this situation now. They have just a shitload of Laker games left. They barely have any Cleveland games. They barely have any Oklahoma City games. And a lot of times, like the most televised teams... it turns out to be disappointing. I love watching Detroit.
I really get it.
And I have fantasy guys from them in different leagues, and I'm sure that's part of it. I have the one seed bet with them. I have their over, all kinds of stuff. But I just think they're really entertaining offensively. Like, about as entertaining of an offense as we've seen in a while. And then the big thing that they added that they just didn't have in the first two months was this Tim Patrick.
Yeah.
Who I always thought was good on the Broncos. He got hurt. and he was healthy in preseason. And I, I guess, uh, I guess, uh, Peyton just liked other receivers, let him go. And he's the third receiver that the lions have kind of been dying for. Like he had a couple of really big catches today, but I think I, they just have playmakers everywhere.
And I always feel like that Packers didn't get that thing tie game.
four minutes left and it's like fuck you guys probably lost I don't think you're stopping the Lions I think they're gonna get in a field goal range and win the game like didn't you have that feeling yeah of course yes the only thing that put it into doubt at all was uh crazy Dan Campbell going for it on that fourth down well I wonder I mean I wonder like the pie chart of that decision making where they didn't get it before and I do think there's like a
attitude piece to when he's been doing this for three years, right?
No doubt. No doubt.
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