OTB Football
FINAL ONE STANDING: ‘I can’t see how Manchester City don’t win this game!’ | The Manchester Derby
16 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is the significance of the Manchester Derby this weekend?
Football on Off the Ball.
Some were bought for a system, but Manchester United are trying to bring players in that can play multiple systems so that when a manager leaves, the whole club isn't rocked. And I actually agree with that idea.
Join in the obsession. Subscribe now at offtheball.com forward slash join. The Final One Standing by William Hill on Off The Ball. Download the app and play today. 18plusgamblingcare.ie Alright, you're very welcome along to this week's episode of Final One Standing. It's a pretty interesting weekend of football. Man United and Man City is the half-twelve kick-off.
Our two live games on Sunday are Wolves and Newcastle at two o'clock and then Villa against Everton from half-past four. And you can hear live, exclusive, uninterrupted commentary of both those games on Off the Ball on Sunday afternoon on Newstalk with John Duggan in the hot seat. Mick McCarthy and Ben Symes are with us in studio and Lee Feltz is with us on the line. Lee, good afternoon to you.
How are you? I'm really good. How are you guys doing? In the end, your cup weekend last weekend was pretty good, I think, was it?
Yeah, really good. I thought it was great when you had the upset on the Friday night, obviously, which has kind of been forgotten about because of what Macclesfield did. I mean, we had a fair few punters back Macclesfield. Someone had £100 on, as it were, 11 to 1. I mean, it's not a huge price, is it, given how big the difference is between them and Palace.
But yeah, I thought it was a really good weekend.
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Chapter 2: How are Manchester United and Manchester City preparing for the match?
Ben, I thought we were going to get another joint killing when Western Supermare kept equalising against your beloved Grimsby. I was a little bit worried.
I was thinking about the mean one to four at home. If you were sat on a one, no one's back to the Grimsby at one to four anyway, so it's pointless people saying it, let's be honest.
I'm sure there was somebody who was like, oh, that's a handy win. Was it 87th minute winner? Was it something like that? Look, we're a cup team this year. What can I say? The cup is back, right? I think we can, like it has over the last couple of years rescued itself from whatever it was, whatever period in the doldrums, it's now back.
It feels like it. It's interesting. I was looking at the... Obviously, a lot is made, and rightly so, of the amazing results for the likes of Macclesfield and Wrexham. But when you looked at a lot of the other Premier League versus non-Premier League games, the aggregate score... was 32-7. And No Man's City accounted for 10 of those goals.
But, you know, I think so, because you look at like Wolves had a good day. Burnley won well. I think it was 5-1 and 6-1. So there's a lot of teams, Premier League teams, who really put them to. So there's only one team, I think, who kept a clean sheet in those games. And that was Brentford. So the rest, both teams to score and the Premier League team winning all landed.
So some big hackers out there for someone.
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Chapter 3: What are the recent performances of Manchester United under Carrick?
I think there was four all Premier League games and I didn't see Newcastle Bournemouth or Everton Sunderland but they seemed like they were dramatic but the Villa Spurs game and the United Brighton game felt like big games that were important to both teams and I think when you get that in the cup
That's when it loses its luster if you're getting a Chelsea-Arsenal game that doesn't feel like a Chelsea-Arsenal game. You can't take it too seriously then. But it didn't give us any of those last weekend, which I think makes everybody feel quite positive.
And in a weird way, Wolves and essentially Burnley being already down means they're going to put their strongest team out in the cup on the off chance that they might be able to go on some kind of reputation-restoring run. This weekend, obviously, Man Utd against Man City is the big one. What are you seeing here, Lee?
What do you think is going to happen? I can't see how Manchester City don't win this game because Michael Carrick goes into this job and he's seen Darren Fletcher get two poor results in his interim two games. They had 48 shots on goal in those two games, Man United. 18 on target.
Carrick can't go in there and instil his Middlesbrough virtues, which was heavily possession-based, bring teams onto you and then hit them. They cannot do that against... He's not going to have instilled that in them in that many days. And they can't do that against Manchester City anyway because they'll get battered.
Now, if they go out and play Man City in the way that Fletcher has been setting them up, go and attack... which everyone talks about this more attacking style, they'll still get battered, but it might be a bit more. They might score a goal or two themselves. Obviously, we're expecting to have Brian and Bumo back. Ahmad's back as well from AFCON.
We don't know if they'll start the games, but you'd hope they would. So I can see goals. I think Man City, they need a win. Maybe it's a bit much to call it must win, but for their title credentials, if Man City had drawn the last three, if they'd won those three, they would be top of the Premier League right now. So they can't draw or lose this game. I think Man City have to go and win.
They're odds on, touch of odds on to do it. Good record, of course. Recently, I think United have scored two goals at home to City in the last six matches. That's over 550 minutes of football.
City are susceptible at the back aren't they I think City win this but again City to win and both teams to score I'd be looking at Haaland's got a brilliant record against them eight goals and three assists in his games against United and obviously they've got Antoine Semenya who just made a he continued his great form didn't he no matter who he plays for he just carries on scoring goals so yeah I don't how do Man United win this I don't understand really how they could possibly get a result
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Chapter 4: How does Manchester City's attacking power influence the game?
That's very Roy Keane. It's not my philosophy on football. I just think that it can work at times, and this might be suited, I think... this week for it. We don't know if Carrick's even going to do that. For all we know, he could be like, tactical master plan, 15-page dossier, go out and do this, whatever.
But there is also a world in which it's like, just go out, beat your man, and go and win the game. Like, it's a Manchester derby, do it for the fans. I don't know. Again, I don't see it working long-term, but I just don't think City are this unbeatable force that we seem to be treating them as.
No, I agree with that. I just... I just wonder if he'll get caught between a few different stalls. And the players must be a little bit like, what are we doing? Because they seem to change tack under Fletcher. Now, are they going to change again under Carrick? It's a strange one. But look, I expect Manchester City to win the game and there to be goals in it. That's where I see this ending up.
I don't know if Man United have got the discipline to do what you guys have just said. It does seem like probably the most sensible tactic. I just don't know if they're good enough to pull that off. They're probably not good enough to pull that off, actually. I do know.
Pep picked his full team, or is close to a full team. Maybe...
certainly picked a really strong team Tuesday yeah yeah um Haaland's first start in that competition in a long time um and that would suggest he's still looking for them to get now maybe he's taking it seriously maybe that's what it suggests and nothing else but they are still trying to find that bit of form where like Haaland's form at the start of the season was so incredible you thought that the race for golden boot was over um
Maybe it still is. But he is missing chances right in front of the goals. He's kicking it straight at the keeper. I heard someone refer to it as the yips recently.
I think that market probably is over. But interestingly, we've been talking about this in the office this week. There's a market now. So the Golden Boot top scorer in the Premier League without Erling Haaland. No surprise. Igor Thiago is a very short price favourite to get that. 16 goals. Antoine Semenya.
Now, he's a few back, don't get me wrong here, but he's 12-1 to be the top scorer without Erling Haaland. So if he's going to play the majority of Premier League games, we don't know what's going to happen, obviously. I'm speculating here a little bit, but if he's going to carry on his form and he's hit the ground running...
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Chapter 5: What strategies might Manchester United employ against City?
You're a bit too creative, too free-spirited for my liking.
I thought it was a rescue, right?
That's it, the main side of that. The Carrick thing, very briefly, everybody's thoughts.
I think we've come so accustomed to this in Manchester United the manager comes in in January he's sacked the next January and bring a man who knows the club is back Real Madrid have also seemed to do it this window yeah look I'll be honest with you as someone who's not a Manchester United fan I could care less about Michael Carrick going back to Manchester United.
I know it's only for the next six months. He'll have a couple of wins somewhere down the line and the United fans will be clamouring for him to get the job for next season. They shouldn't do that. Have a plan. Get your manager in after the World Cup which I presume they're waiting to see who leaves a national team job after the World Cup and stick to it.
Don't fall for the Carrick clamour when he wins against Burnley, West Ham and Wolves.
I think they won't I think they won't so it is what it is almost and it's like what needs to happen is that they need to get some results and stay in you know people keep talking about how many points are off the Champions League and this that and the other you also have to take the context of the league they have been
They've had a run of games that have been unbelievably favourable going back two and a half months now. And that ends this weekend. And it's tougher for the rest of the season. Obviously, there will be bursts, but they could be out of it. They could be out of it, but they also might not be. And the difference between this season being a total waste and this will be a European race...
If they aren't in any kind of European race, if they're slipping the other way, it's going to be like Ralph Ragnick territory all over again. It's just a waste of a half a season. And then you think about how that leads in terms of recruiting next year and so on. And United's ever-slipping force off as a dominant team in world football.
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Chapter 6: What are the implications of Manchester City's recent form?
And then he just said, he just said, they'll eat him alive. And I was thinking to myself, like, that's funny and all. But actually, if you think about it, it's like, we should actually take... the people from the dressing rooms more seriously in those regards.
They do know that no matter what Lima Senior comes in with, he will be taken a certain way by people, by footballers, by top-level footballers. And there's nothing you can do about that. There's no...
and all the social memes already, like, you know, the kind of, um, you know, the thing with AI is like, and we know, we know footballers are on social media and they will react to it and they'll be laughing about it. And there's all the memes about him looking like the guy from the, um, from the in-betweeners and looking like a bit of a geek.
And he's like, he's a FIFA player and all that sort of stuff. So yeah, that, That has to permeate through to players these days, I think. It's a worry because you just wish him the best because it's a great opportunity. I thought the same about Thomas Frank, weirdly. At the start of the season, I know I'm going to sound like an after-timer here, but I swear I said it.
When I saw him in the dugout and when I saw him doing the press conferences, he looked small for Tottenham. I don't know what I mean by that, but I just thought at the time, something about this isn't quite right. And now this is coming into the way we look at managers now. It's mad, isn't it? Think what's happened with Nuno. What's happened with Ange.
What could happen with Nuno again, by the way. What could happen with Thomas Frank and Spurs. Nancy, it's no longer crazy that a manager goes into a club and doesn't last not only a season, but half a season. It's mad.
The whole thing about Brian Clough lasting 33 days or whatever it was at Leeds United was that it was so rare and so random and the player power and then he goes on and has a great career afterwards.
He made that situation absolutely terrible, didn't he, at Leeds United? He went in there and just did it. So it's a bit like... it was a battle from the start, wasn't it? So it was a bit of a different situation, but now it said that, yeah, Nuno getting himself the sack effectively. Um, you could say the same about, you know, Maresca doing the same, you know, so this is happening.
You can say the same about Amarim that's speaking out. Um, it's interesting. I was listening to someone talking about, um, for senior, um, He's talking too much in the media, they were saying. He's too vocal already. Like Hammerin was, just don't say as much as you're saying.
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Chapter 7: How do injuries affect Manchester City's defensive setup?
I remember talking on the show because obviously they were hammered by Forrest in the first game of the season and everyone thought the worst. And I remember watching it. It was a Saturday night game. Me and you have talked about it Ben, haven't we? And I just remember thinking there was a sense that... That Nuno's Forrest. It was. Yeah.
this was a terrible one but their performance against Chelsea that night was just very tenacious and they just seemed like a better coach team than Chelsea and obviously it's going to be different at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea have a different coach but I just wouldn't write off Brentford getting something from this game I think that and look the Chelsea Brentford rivalry such as it is matters more to Brentford than it does to Chelsea they're aware of it Chelsea are like who are you lads
Yeah, there's one person who will absolutely love the new Chelsea boss. A punter had a bet builder, a tenner on a bet builder in the Arsenal-Chelsea match the other night. And thanks to Impact Sub... took away £15,000. It was a £10 bet. £15,000. He had Neto and Trossard to be carded. Neto, Zubamendi and Odegaard, at least one shot on target. Ngoi, over one shot on target.
He went off and Garnaccio replaced him. So that substitution earned one of our punters a massive, massive bet builder win. But yeah, so the one person who will be saying to us, leave him alone. He's fine. Let him crack on. I'd be worried about this if I was a Chelsea fan. Brentford have got a good record against them at Stamford Bridge.
One loss and three wins since they've returned to the Premier League. I think they score at the very least. Igor Thiago. If it wasn't for Erling Haaland, this guy's record this season is sensational. 17 goals in all competitions in 22 games. He's 8-5 to score here. Kevin Sharder scored in the game at Brentford. He's always dangerous. Both teams to score is 4-6.
So if you're looking for something to put in Anaka and you're looking at Chelsea at 4-6, I'd rather put both teams to score in at the same price, if I'm being honest. I'm just not sure about Chelsea at that price.
I think that makes sense, especially with their goalkeeper. Everybody feels like they have a chance of scoring against them at the moment. Anything else coming up this weekend? We expect Liverpool to get back to some kind of straightforward winning ways. They're 4-1 on and off to Burnley.
Yeah, short price, aren't they? Yeah, I think they should win that, shouldn't they? They've got, obviously, a really good record against Burnley. Burnley struggle. There's a couple of prices that stood out to me. That was Sunderland at home to Crystal Palace. It's more or less a pick-em between them two in terms of who wins. Shouldn't be.
I think Sunderland have battled away during the AFCON period. They've, you know,
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Chapter 8: What predictions are made for the outcome of the Manchester Derby?
was it drawn four, lost one since late November, beat Everton in the FA Cup, they get their players back, at least four of them, and if they're fit to go back in, they should go back in, at home, obviously Palace had a nightmare in the FA Cup, not playing very well, no one's beaten Sunderland at home in the Premier League, held Arsenal, held City, so I think that price is really nice.
Obviously, you think Arsenal should win as well. And Aston Villa at home to Everton, they were a touch of odds on Aston Villa. I watched them against Spurs in the FA Cup. I thought they were really good again. I thought 2-1 flat at Tottenham, to be honest. I just like the way they control the game and they hit you. And with the quality that Rodgers has got, obviously Watkins...
I'm surprised to see them sell Marlon. Maybe it's the player wanting to get regular football, but I like Buendia as well. So I think Aston Villa at home to Everton is well worth a look. Just a quick word on final one standing as well. We've got a €200,000 pot, a €50,000 pot and two €20,000 pots. And they've got four, four, six and ten players left in them respectively. Wow.
The 200,000 euro pot, two have gone for Spurs, one's gone for Leeds, and one's gone for Brighton. They play Bournemouth at home on Monday night. I mean, if that player who's got Brighton has seen Spurs and Leeds not win, and you're going into Monday night with 200,000 pounds on the line, look, even if Brighton weren't to win, the four of them would share 200k, so they'd still get 50,000 euros.
Exactly. that 50k pot though four players left I mean they can't see this so if they hear this or watch this then they'll know but all four have gone spurs oh no
At home. If you knew, you would have been West Ham. But like Spurs at home is like the poisonous chalice there is.
I know. So it's going to be a really interesting weekend for all that. Yeah, we've got our usual ACA boost available. Four picks gets your boost activated. You've got all your bet builder winnings boost and epic boosts. So some cracking epic boosts over the weekend. Really looking forward to it. Should be a cracking return to the Premier League.
Yeah. Good stuff, Lee. Thanks for joining us. Cheers. Thank you.
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