Odd Lots

Michael Froman on the New 'Polyamorous' Global Trading System

20 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

When President Trump announced the tariffs on Liberation Day, it seemed to truly mark the end of the old world trading system. But of course it had be...

Henry Wang on China's Role in the New Emerging World Order

19 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There is a widespread view that China is a superpower of rising status, and that a new global order is emerging with the country as an important pole ...

Elon Musk's Pay Package and the Threat to the Delaware Corporation

18 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

If you look at prospectuses and earnings documents for almost any company, you're going to see a Delaware address. For more than a century, the state ...

The Cardboard Boxpocalypse and the State of the US Economy

15 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Almost everything we buy nowadays has been in a box at some point. Goods are shipped in boxes. Products ordered online arrive at our doorstep in boxes...

Vaneer Bhansali on Losing Fed Independence as the Biggest Tail Risk Right Now

13 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Everyone wants to buy the hedge that will save their portfolio in a time of collapse. But this is easier said than done. You need to understand the sp...

Rob Kaplan on the Fed, AI, and How Globalization Is Happening Without the US

12 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In this live episode, recorded at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dal...

What China's Military Parade and Newest Jets Tell Us About the Battle For Air Supremacy

11 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The recent parade in Beijing once again raised questions about the relative strengths of the US and Chinese militaries. Meanwhile, because of recent g...

Josh Wolfe on AI and the Breaking of Silicon Valley's Social Contract

08 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

One day it's so over. The next day we're so back. This is what it feels like gauging the AI boom right now. Everyone's looking for signs of some kind ...

Everybody's Business: The Business of KPop Demon Hunters

07 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business, Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact ch...

Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report

04 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowi...

What's Behind the Boom in Buy Now Pay Later

04 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big ...

Dan Wang on China's Breakneck Economic Growth

01 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are t...

Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade

31 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Gamblers on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are already trying to cash in on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement — bett...

Emi Nakamura on Central Bank Credibility and the Taylor Rule

29 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central ba...

Liz Truss on the 'Doom Loop' Engulfing the UK Economy

28 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

These days, everyone is talking about high interest rates across the rich, developed world, while warning of eventual fiscal disaster. But we may have...

Lev Menand on Trump's Attempt to Fire the Fed's Lisa Cook

26 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on Aug...

Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World

26 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, ...

Tom Barkin on Why Central Banking Is on Hard Mode Now

25 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate c...

Why Austan Goolsbee Is Still Concerned About Inflation

23 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This...

Lots More on What Just Happened With the Fed at Jackson Hole

22 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We're still at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where we just heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell's big spe...

Kansas City's Fed President on What Everyone Will Be Talking About at Jackson Hole

21 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It's Jackson Hole time again, when the most prominent minds in monetary policy meet in an idyllic Wyoming setting for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kans...

This Is What Happens When a Startup Dies

20 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

You always hear about startup exits. Big acquisitions. Big IPOs. But of course this isn’t the fate for most new ventures. Many of them die outri...

Lessons From the One Sovereign Wealth Fund in the United States

18 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

President Trump and others have talked about the idea of the US having a Sovereign Wealth Fund, a la the UAE or Singapore. It feels like a longshot, b...

Housing Is a Problem Even in a State With Declining Population

16 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

You can kind of understand why it's so hard to build housing in New York City. There isn't much available land. It's already pretty built up. And then...

Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro

15 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, ...

The Investors Who Think Hazelnuts Will Be the Next Pistachios

14 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We're in an age where shocks can occur on both the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, the causes are well known. Pandemics, trade wa...

How to Move Freight Across the Icy Roads of Alaska

13 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We're interested in trucking here at Odd Lots. It's one of those industries that can tell us a lot about the economy, both in terms of the short-term ...

What an Alaskan Furniture Company Tells Us About Tariffs

11 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Alaska is no stranger to supply chain issues and a higher cost of living. Almost everything has to be imported into the state, incurring longer lead t...

Mary Daly on Why Alaska Is a Leading Indicator for the US Economy

08 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Alaska is one of the states in the Federal Reserve's 12th District, which is headquartered in San Francisco. For Mary Daly, the head of the SF Fed, th...

Joseph Torigian on Xi Zhongxun and Elite Chinese Communist Party Politics

07 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Chinese Communist Party is probably one of the most difficult entities in the world to grasp due to its opacity of its inner workings. A new book ...

Bill Beach on How Trump Just Politicized US Economic Data

04 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Late last week, Donald Trump shocked Wall Street by firing Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency responsible for pu...

The AI Industry Is Becoming Like Professional Sports

04 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to tech startups, you often hear about VCs making a ton of money, or founders experiencing life-changing exits. But something is changin...

How to Make Money Selling Pizza in New York City

02 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Everybody knows that New York City has a ton of pizzerias. And yet, new ones are opening up all the time. Why do we need more? And how is there still ...

What an LA Bakery Says About the Economy Right Now

01 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bakeries are great microcosms of the economy. There's lots of labor involved. You need commodities like flours and eggs, plus energy for your ovens. Y...

Circle's CEO on the Booming Business of Stablecoins

31 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Stablecoins are emerging as one of the most active areas of cryptocurrencies. The idea of using blockchain rails to transmit money has captured the at...

This Is How Chinese Manufacturers Are Countering Trump's Trade War

28 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

President Trump has announced tariffs on basically every trading partner. However there is a real sense that the ultimate goal is to hamper the growin...

How a Trade War With China Could Become a Hot War

26 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Tension between the US and China has been building for some time. But so far this has been limited to issues of trade. The US has imposed tariffs on C...

What 300 Years of Firewood Prices Say About the Economy

25 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Today, the cost of energy — things like electricity, or gas, or heating oil — is considered an essential piece of economic data. But it tu...

How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins

24 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

People talk all the time about the potential for huge turning points in history. And they've been talking about the possibility of the US losing its d...

The NYC Landlords Most Worried About Zohran Mamdani

21 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Probably the most controversial proposal from New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani is his promise to freeze the rent on a substanti...

Why the Damage to Fed Independence May Have Already Been Done

19 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There’s a long history of US presidents putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the techniques have often been subt...

Mayor Eric Adams on the Future of New York City

18 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Incumbent NYC Mayor Eric Adams didn't run in the Democratic primary. But he'll be on the ballot in November, running as an independent against Zohran ...

What AI Is Already Doing to the Legal Industry

17 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

If there's one thing that lawyers do a lot of, it's spending a prodigious number of hours going through documents. And they're often very well compens...

Why US Banks Are Trying to Turn Themselves Into Super Apps

14 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Rohit Chopra is a former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In thi...

What NYC's Most Powerful CEOs Think About Zohran Mamdani

11 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

When socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic party's nomination for NYC mayor, top business leaders experienced a bout of hysteria. That...

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War

10 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to hav...

How You Get and Actually Keep a Job at a Multi-Strat Hedge Fund

07 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Multi-strategy hedge funds, composed of lots of individual portfolio managers, have seen assets under management boom in recent years, thanks to aston...

Emily Sundberg on How Nobody Is Coming to Save Gen Z

05 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What do young professionals in New York City actually think about money and capitalism? According to our guest Emily Sundberg, creator of the Feed Me ...

Nassim Taleb on Living a Good Life in an Age of Volatility

04 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Every day we're inundated with headlines that are seemingly unbelievable. Multiple major wars are ongoing. Politics is erratic. Markets are scrambling...

Charlie McElligott on How Long the Stock Market Rally Can Go

03 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks plunged after the April 2 "Liberation Day," in one of the worst drawdowns in the market's history. Since then, however, we're basically back to...

The Greatest Ever Panel on the World's Most Important Market

02 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Okay, that's quite a title but we think it's justified! In this special episode — recorded live onstage at our June 26 event in New York City &m...

Robinhood's CEO on the Plan to Tokenize Everything

01 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Robinhood, the company known for first introducing commission-free trading, has now become a behemoth with all kinds of different business lines inclu...

Jim Chanos on the Nuttiness of 'Bitcoin Treasury Companies'

30 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

For awhile there was just MicroStrategy (which has since been renamed as Strategy.) It started buying Bitcoin, and then raised money to buy more Bitco...

The Biotech Start-Up Making Vaccines for Bees and Shrimp

28 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Think of a biotech company and most people will think of a business trying to come up with cures and treatments for human illnesses. There's not a lot...

Lots More on What's Going On in Iran's Markets

27 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Iran is a huge country with a sizable stock market. And yet, years of sanctions and other restrictions mean it’s tough to even look up its stock...

The Company That Wants To Bring Back Supersonic Jet Travel

26 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We talk all the time about the US attempting to become a powerhouse in advanced manufacturing, but a lot of it just sounds like talk that's not going ...

Zohran Mamdani, the Socialist Who Could Be NYC's New Mayor (Rerelease)

25 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Today's episode is a re-run of our interview from last month with Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. On June 24, Mamdani won the first round of the De...

The Chinese Chip Giant That Could Be Nvidia's Biggest Threat

23 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Right now, Nvidia stock is back near its all-time highs, thanks to seemingly unquenchable demand for its AI chips. When it comes to profiting off of t...

Targeting Type 1 Diabetes (Sponsored Content)

22 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Madison Carter is a fearless investigative reporter. She takes no day for granted because she lives with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Dr. Doug Melton is a w...

Giuseppe Paleologo on Quant Investing at Multi-Strat Hedge Funds

21 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Quantitative investing is one of those terms that you hear all the time, but there's various explanations of what it actually means, or how quants act...

Zichen Wang's Exit Interview From America

20 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Zichen Wang is the writer of the Pekingnology newsletter, which translates important speeches and articles from China into English, and contextualize...

Gillian Tett on Complex Derivatives and the Fifth Stage of Capitalism

19 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After the GFC, there was a lot of angst over the fact that so much effort and brainpower went into designing complex derivatives, and other financial ...

Jim Egan on the Mortgage Gap That's Dividing America

16 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Somehow, the American consumer remains quite strong. Despite higher interest rates, tariffs, general economic uncertainty and so forth, people are con...

The Big Gulf AI Deal That's Divided the White House

14 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Back in May, President Trump announced this big plan whereby American tech giants would participate in major AI projects in both Saudi Arabia and the ...

Trump Economic Advisor, Stephen Miran, on Tariffs and Tax Cuts

13 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Trump administration seems to have a lot of big ideas about reshaping America, including its economy. We've seen the unveiling (and delaying) of s...

Ricardo Hausmann on What it Takes to Win a Trade War

12 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The focus of Trump's trade policies is clearly China. There are tariffs on everyone, of course, but it's the growing Chinese manufacturing might, and ...

Vladislav Zubok on What the Cold War Actually Was

09 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

These days, it's common to talk about the emergence of a New Cold War that exists between the US and China. It's debatable whether or not this is a us...

Introducing: Everybody's Business

08 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Bloomberg Businessweek brings you a smart and fun chat show about all things...business. Hosted by award-winning business and economics journalists Ma...

A Major American Egg Farm Just Lost 90% of its Chickens

07 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Egg prices have come down a lot since their recent record and bird flu has largely faded from the headlines. But the epidemic is still raging and, per...

Lots More on What America's Busiest Port is Seeing from the Trade Tariffs

06 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We're about two months on from Liberation Day, and there's still a lot of confusion about what's going on with global trade. Some countries, like Chin...

Jersey City's Mayor on How the City Built So Much Housing

05 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

To some extent, at least in big cities, it feels as though the cost of housing is enveloping almost everything else in terms of politics right now. Bo...

Why It's So Hard for Apple to Move Production from China to India

02 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

President Trump wants Apple to make iPhones in America. The company itself has talked about — and to some extent already has been — moving...

How Do We Define a Currency?

31 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What is a currency? This turns out to be one of those questions we just kind of skip over because we don't have clear answers to it (and because econo...

Krishna Memani on Wall Street's Very Expensive "Free Lunch"

30 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We're told over and over again that the one "free lunch" in investing is diversification, and that you can improve your returns over time simply by in...

Michael Cembalest on Why AI Is the Stock Market Bet of the Century

29 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Michael Cembalest has been an investment analyst for almost 40 years and his research notes have drawn a cult following on Wall Street. He's known for...

Why Asset Allocators Love Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds

26 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Multi-strategy hedge funds have been having a moment with big asset allocators pouring billions of dollars into names like Millennium and Citadel. And...

Zohran Mamdani, the Socialist Who Could Be NYC's New Mayor

23 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We're just a month away from the hotly-contested Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. And one of the candidates -- Queens assemblyman Zohran Ma...

Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World

22 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week the big story in markets is the selloff in bonds. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries jumped 20 basis points from last Friday’s ...

Scott Bok on How Bankers Spread the Gospel of Capitalism

19 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

When we think about the prospect of deglobalization (whatever that means) we often think about it in terms of the goods economy. Supply chains get rer...

Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic on Monetary Policy During Extreme Uncertainty

16 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This is obviously an extraordinarily difficult time to make economic forecasts. Nobody really knows how tariffs will affect the US economy. And beyond...

The Oil Industry's Double Whammy of Higher Costs and Lower Prices

15 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that...

Perry Mehrling on Trump's Echoes of the Nixon Shock

14 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's been a lot of talk recently about parallels between Donald Trump's economic policies and the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s. That was when the...

Philip Diehl on the Booming Business of Gold Coins

12 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Gold prices have been booming and are near record highs. And seeing the line go up — especially during a period of so much uncertainty —&n...

Why the World Keeps Getting Shocked by China's Technological Progress

10 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several years, the world has watched as China edges close to or past the technological frontier in more and more areas. Earlier this yea...

Sarah LaFleur On the Existential Threat From the Tariffs

09 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

America's textile industry has famously declined over the years, with a bunch of production moving to lower-cost places like China, Vietnam, and Bangl...

How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War

08 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as...

The Tariff Buzzsaw Is Coming For Hardcore Gamers

07 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Every industry is going to be affected by the trade war in different ways. In many cases, we don't know how it's going to play out. Other industries a...

Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar

06 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularl...

Henry Blodget on AI, Dot-Coms, and What's Changed In 25 Years

05 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What does history say about how big the AI boom can get, and who will ultimately win out? When does a boom turn into a bubble that turns into a bust? ...

Chris Hughes on How to Craft a Thriving Market

03 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several years, both parties in the US have been drifting away from laissez-faire thinking about the economy, and more towards the view t...

What The 'Lentil King of Saskatchewan' Knows About World Trade

02 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We don't know what the end state for the tariffs are going to be, but inevitably there will be some shifts in the way that goods and dollars flow arou...

Blackstone's King of Hedge Funds on Alt Investing Right Now

01 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Everyone knows by now that college endowment funds have gone big on alternative investing, pouring billions of dollars into private equity and hedge f...

Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying

30 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even h...

What We Learned About Treasuries on the Night of April 8

28 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

When stocks are plunging in a typical market environment, people reach for safe haven assets like US Treasuries. But we've seen that phenomenon break ...

Lots More on How TikTok Options Traders Got Quiet

26 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last few years, retail traders have gotten into options in a major way. Selling puts, buying calls, trading volatility — what used to b...

Anna Wong: Empty Shelves Are Coming Soon

25 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

If you look at most of the official hard data right now, there still isn't much evidence of a sharp downturn. Sure, all the surveys are abysmal, but t...

David Woo: What Trump Started is Worse Than a Trade War

24 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The...

Big Take: What a Bacon, Egg and Cheese Teaches Us About the Economy

23 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to measuring economic pain, the cost of a humble breakfast sandwich might not be top of mind. But Bloomberg has an index that tracks the...

This Is What President Biden's CHIPS Office Actually Did

23 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of i...

Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order

21 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Martin Wolf has been called one of the world's most important economics commentators, and has for decades written in columns and his own books about t...