Odd Lots

Nassim Taleb on What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers and Deadlift Maxis All Get Wrong

06 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Nassim Taleb has never been shy about expressing his viewpoints on a wide range of topics. But lately he's been getting into verbal tussles with peopl...

The NYC Landlord Who Says the "Golden Age" of Being a Landlord Is Over

03 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

For the most part, being a landlord, particularly in a major city, has been a good business to be in. Rents historically just go up — as do property...

Matt King Sees a $1 Trillion Liquidity Drain Heading for Markets

30 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

One of the big mysteries in markets right now is why risk assets rallied so strongly into the new year even as policymakers were adamant that they wou...

Betsy Cohen On Tech Investing and How SVB Failed Banking 101

27 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The tech world is in a precarious moment. Valuations are down. The IPO window seems shut. SPACs are a thing of the past. And the industry's pre-eminen...

Is It Time For Public Checking Accounts at the Fed?

23 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

When Silicon Valley Bank failed, the government stepped in and guaranteed that all accounts — even those well above the FDIC threshold for deposit i...

Where Stress Is Showing in the $20 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market

20 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Markets are suddenly on edge due to strains in the financial system. But banks aren't the only source of stress. Pockets of the commercial real estate...

What the Dramatic Boom in Zero-Day Options Means for Stocks

17 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Zero- and one-day options give investors the ability to bet on the daily moves of the S&P 500. In recent months, both big institutional investors ...

The Regulatory Blunder That Gave Us the Silicon Valley Bank Disaster

16 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Whenever a major financial institution collapses and needs a bailout, it's easy to say, "Where were the regulators?" But that's only a useful question...

Dan Davies On What Brought Down Silicon Valley Bank

14 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Silicon Valley bank collapsed at record speed. And the world is still trying to figure out what went wrong? How did a bank with a strong history, a st...

How the Federal Reserve Grew More Powerful Than Anyone Ever Imagined

13 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In the short term, the Federal Reserve's job is straightforward. Raise or lower interest rates in order to meet its employment and inflation targets. ...

Companies Are Telling Us the Real Reason They're Still Raising Prices

09 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The persistence of inflation is a bit of a mystery to economists. Many of the shocks of the last few years have faded. And the Fed has raised rates ag...

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on the Two Big Challenges Facing Crypto

06 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Crypto is facing two distinct, yet related problems. First, a bunch of people have lost money due to the decline in coin prices and the collapse of ma...

How Empty Land in the Arizona Desert Gets Turned Into Homes

02 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Homebuilders have experienced major whiplash over the last few years. The pandemic originally caused them to slam the brakes on new development. Then ...

Why We Don't Build More Apartments for Families

27 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The vast majority of urban apartments in the US are geared towards single occupants, couples without kids or maybe young professionals with roommates....

Why Interest Rates on Savings Accounts Are Still So Low

23 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve has been raising benchmark borrowing rates at the fastest pace in decades, but the interest rate paid out to millions of people wi...

A Former CIA Official on One Year of Russia's War in Ukraine

20 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

It's been one year since Russia invaded Ukraine in an event that set off a chain reaction of both geopolitical and economic consequences. So what have...

Brian Deese on the Legislative Legacy of President Biden's First Two Years

17 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

President Biden came into office with an incredibly slim legislative majority. And yet despite just 50 Democratic seats in the Senate, the first two y...

This Is What Happens if the US Actually Hits the Debt Ceiling

16 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The US is in the middle of another debt ceiling fight. The expectation is that it will get lifted before we hit the so called "drop dead" date — but...

What Happens Now to All the Laid Off Tech Workers?

13 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The US labor market looks rock solid. The unemployment rate is at its lowest level in 50 years, while layoffs continue to trend downward. But there's ...

Jan Toporowski Explains Why Capitalists Dislike Full Employment

10 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, the work of John Maynard Keynes experienced a revival, as people sought answers to the problem of sluggish ...

Introducing: Foundering - The John McAfee Story

09 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The new season of Bloomberg's Foundering podcast retraces the life and gruesome death of John McAfee. In the 1980s and ’90s, the McAfee name was syn...

Fabio Natalucci on How to Think About Financial Risk Right Now

09 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades in 2022. But despite the rapid shift in borrowing costs, not much in the fina...

Steve Eisman on the 'Paradigm Shift' Happening in Markets Right Now

06 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

After a decade of dominance, 2022 saw tech stocks badly underperform the rest of the market. However, so far in 2023, tech stocks and other speculatio...

Viktor Shvets Declares Victory for Team Transitory and the Soft Landing

01 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

It was looking bad there for awhile for Team Transitory. Anyone who had previously even uttered the word "transitory" in regards to inflation was regr...

The "Big Shift" That's Finally Causing Rents to Fall

30 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Rent inflation went wild in 2021 and 2022, turning it into one of the most substantial drivers of overall inflation. But good news: it seems pretty cl...

Why Corporate America Still Runs on Ancient Software That Breaks

26 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Southwest Airlines had a disastrous holiday season, thanks in part to a software bug that left crews out of place and grounded thousands of flights. B...

What The Heck Is Happening With the Price of Eggs?

23 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The price of eggs rose 60% in 2022, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, wholesale egg prices are up 300% in the last year, creating a ...

The 'Widowmaker' Crypto Trade That Helped Blow Up an Industry

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last year, numerous things have gone wrong for the crypto industry. (Too many to list.) But one thing we've learned is that there's an incred...

Isabella Weber On a New Way to Think About Inflation

19 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In economics, there tends to be two dominant ways of thinking about inflation. Either you agree with Milton Friedman, who described inflation as alway...

Ex-Logger Aims to Beat Elon Musk in Electric Trucks

16 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While electric vehicle use is growing rapidly, the internal combustion engine remains completely dominant in the world of heavy trucks. At some point ...

Why Banks Are Suddenly Borrowing From the Fed's Discount Window

13 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The discount window at the Federal Reserve allows banks to borrow money at an above-market rate in exchange for high-quality collateral. The facility ...

Neil Dutta and Conor Sen on the Chances of a US Soft Landing

12 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The most recent jobs report has revived talk that the US economy might pull off the fabled "soft landing." Jobs are still growing nicely and the unemp...

What Truckers Already Know About the Future of Electronic Worker Surveillance

09 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to work from home, and other trends, workers are being electronically monitored by their bosses like never before. But some industries have had...

Flexport CEO Says a ‘Great Recession’ Is Here for Global Shipping

05 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Back in early 2021, Ryan Petersen was one of the first people we spoke to on the Odd Lots podcast about supply chain snarls and high shipping costs. T...

The AMA Episode: Tracy and Joe Answer All Your Questions

30 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In this special episode, Tracy and Joe reach into the mailbag and take some questions about Odd Lots, and the things regularly covered on the show. We...

Odd Lots Revisited: Our First Episode with Tom Keene

29 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Odd Lots is seven years old now, having started in late 2015. When it began, we really didn't know what the show was going to be or be about. To end 2...

Why the Price of Plastic Is Crashing After a Record Surge

26 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Plastic is in almost everything and prices of polypropylene, polyethylene and a host of other polymers went nuts in 2021, surging to record highs. Now...

What a Bakery Can Tell Us About the Economy Right Now

22 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We talk a lot about macroeconomic trends on the podcast. What's happening with inflation? Is the labor market too hot? Will there be a recession next ...

Where Things Stand Now With Inflation and the Fed

19 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Last week was a big one. On Tuesday, we got a CPI report that came in substantially cooler than expected. Then on Wednesday, the Fed hiked 50 basis po...

Younger and Menand Explain How We Got the Modern Banking System

15 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The US financial system today is pretty much taken as a given. We have the Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates and provides various liquidity b...

This Is What We Know About How Tether Works

12 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 has seen numerous crypto disasters, most notably FTX. Also the price of most coins has tumbled massively. One coin that's done fine is the stable...

What Extreme Weather Events Are Doing to Global Insurance Markets

08 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes, floods... in a year of commodity shortages and supply chain disruptions, a host of extreme weather events have added ...

Brad DeLong on the FTX Collapse and the South Sea Bubble

05 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We're in the aftermath of an extraordinary bubble in cryptocurrencies and the collapse of FTX is a defining chapter of the industry's turmoil. But wha...

The Covid Protests in China and Why They Happened Now

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

China has seen a surge in protests in cities all around the country, targeted at the country's Covid Zero policies. But nearly three years into this p...

This Is What Happens to Silicon Valley in a Downturn

28 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The US economy may not be in a recession, but Silicon Valley, which had a mega-boom throughout the 2010s, is in a downturn. Tech stocks have tanked an...

Jim Chanos on Crypto, Tech and the Golden Age of Fraud

23 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this year we talked to the legendary short seller Jim Chanos, during which he warned of more pain ahead for speculative areas of tech. That ca...

Truckers Are Working Countless Hours That They're Not Getting Paid For

21 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years we've been hearing about a persistent shortage of truck drivers. But what if we're thinking about it wrong? What if the issue is that the sh...

Matt Levine on the Collapse of FTX and Alameda

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It was on an episode of the Odd Lots podcast in April 2022 that Sam Bankman-Fried infamously characterized yield farming as a "box," in a metaphor tha...

Understanding the Collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The collapse of the Sam Bankman-Fried empire is gigantic, sprawling and fast moving. While details are still coming out, it already ranks among the mo...

Guyana Is the Most Exciting Story in the World Oil Market

14 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We talk a lot about the US shale boom. And we talk a lot about OPEC. But one of the most exciting stories in the global oil industry is the incredible...

Isabella Weber On Germany's Plan to Cap the Price of Gas

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The surge in gas costs in Europe threatens to impose massive pain on households and cripple energy-intensive heavy industry. So there has been a lot o...

Josh Younger on the Origin Story of the Shadow Banking System

07 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There are a bunch of historical analogies that people like to reach for in order to describe some of the economic trends we're seeing today. There's o...

Mark Bergen on Apple's Threat to the Online Ad Industry

03 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After years of basically printing money, the big online Internet behemoths are starting to stumble for various reasons. There's the macro slowdowns. N...

Hyun Song Shin Explains Why This Dollar Shock Is So Unique

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It's no secret that a strong US dollar causes the rest of the world pain, but the impact of this year's rally is shaping up to be a bit different than...

A Midwest Drought Is Creating a Supply Chain Crisis on the Mississippi River

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Midwest has been gripped by drought this year and water levels on the Mississippi River have fallen to their lowest marks in decades. That's bad n...

This Is The Legal Mess Now Facing the Trucking Industry

28 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When people think about the so-called 'gig economy' they probably first think about Uber. But truck drivers are arguably the original gig workers. And...

A Broken Market Is Causing Mortgage Rates to Surge

27 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

US mortgage rates have jumped to a two-decade high, with the average 30-year home loan now running above 7%. Of course, this makes sense. The Federal ...

This Is What the US Just Did to China on Semiconductors

24 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this month, the Biden administration unveiled a new set of restrictions on exporting semiconductors and related technology to China. The actio...

How the Alberta NDP Competes In One of Canada's Most Conservative Provinces

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Alberta is one of Canada's most conservative provinces, with an economy and culture that might be compared to Texas. However despite this lean, the Al...

Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Worse' Than the 1970s

19 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Nouriel Roubini is known for his bearish prognostications. And unfortunately, he still doesn't see any good news on the horizon. In fact, things are g...

Jigar Shah Just Became One of the Most Important Players in the Energy Transition

17 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Jigar Shah is the director of the loan office at the Department of Energy. For years, this division has had a modest amount of money, which it used to...

Dan Wang On the Extraordinary Moment for China's Party Congress

13 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Chinese government's biggest political gathering comes at a time of numerous challenges.Next week will see a major gathering of China's top offici...

This Is What 7% Mortgages Will Do To the Housing Market

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to the surge in mortgage rates, we've seen a historic collapse in mortgage affordability. New homebuyers are facing a massive sticker shock rel...

Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness

06 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

UK financial assets just experienced once-in-a-generation type moves in the wake of the government's mini-budget announcement. Not only did both gilts...

What Is Really Going On With Rent and Healthcare Inflation?

03 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

One of the biggest drivers of inflation is rent. Arguably, it's the whole ballgame right now. If rent growth stays firm, it's hard to see inflation ge...

Marko Papic on What Markets Got Wrong About Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

29 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a widespread expectation of a surge in prices for numerous commodities. That happened initially, but by and lar...

Pierre Andurand on What Europe Needs to Do This Winter

26 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Europe is facing an energy crisis and there are some dire predictions about how it will deal with the upcoming winter, when demand for electricity and...

Former CFTC Chair on How to Regulate Stablecoins Without Passing Any New Laws

22 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stablecoin regulation has become a hot topic, and for very good reason. For one thing, it's an extremely fast growing space. Stablecoins are also a pr...

The Ethereum Network Just Experienced a Monumental Development

19 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years, it's been on the Ethereum roadmap to transition its blockchain from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Well, it's finally happened. This mean...

Senator Pat Toomey on the Bad State of Crypto Regulation

15 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Cryptocurrencies often don't fit neatly into traditional asset buckets. They're not exactly currencies. They're not exactly commodities. And while man...

Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling Debate Bretton Woods 3.0

11 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has found a new level of fame over the last year, arguing that we're witnessing the birth of a new currency reg...

Ezra Klein on the Future of Supply-Side Liberalism

08 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

To the surprise of many people, the Biden administration has notched some significant economic policy wins this year. The CHIPS Act represents a major...

Just How Bad Is the Economy Getting in China?

05 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, China arguably led the world out of the downturn. Its gigantic fiscal stimulus not only boosted domestic gr...

Neel Kashkari on the Fed's Commitment to Defeating Inflation

31 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech intended to leave no ambiguity about the Fed's commitment to defeating infl...

Joelle Gamble Explains the Confusing State of the US Labor Market

29 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The unemployment rate is down to 3.5%, which is far lower than just about anyone thought it would be a year ago. So that's great. On the other hand, m...

Helene Meisler On What's Going On With the Stock Market Now

25 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode. And there's that old adage "don't fight the Fed" which means in theory it's a bad time for stocks. And yet ...

How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto

22 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In theory, what gets people most excited about crypto is lines going straight up. But one of the biggest successes in crypto is the rise of stablecoin...

This Is What Actually Determines the Price of A Gallon of Gas

19 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Gas prices are central to everything these days. Biden's approval rating seems to move inverse with the price of gasoline. The entire market started r...

This Is the Case for Building a More Robust Power Grid

18 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to surging energy costs and extreme weather events, there's a greater urgency to decarbonize the electricity grid. However, it's not enough jus...

Just How Bad Will the Energy Crisis Be in Europe This Winter?

15 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As everyone knows, electricity prices in Europe have soared, due to a combination of factors, most prominently Russia's war in Ukraine and the curtail...

Pimco's Dan Ivascyn on the State of Markets Right Now

11 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Markets have staged an impressive bounce since the middle of June. Stocks are way up. Credit spreads have come in. Mortgage rates have tightened again...

Jan Hatzius on the Narrow Path to Avoid a Hard Landing

08 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The multi-trillion dollar question for the US economy is “Can inflation drop to the Federal Reserve’s target without a substantial jump in the une...

Anna Stansbury on How to Boost Worker Bargaining Power

04 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Labor markets are considered to be "tight" right now, but wage growth continues to lag inflation. For decades, in fact, we've seen a steady decline in...

Benn Eifert On The Mania That Was Even Bigger Than Meme Stocks

01 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When people think about the market mania we recently experienced, the most glaring thing that comes to mind is the meme stocks. In early 2021, the hug...

What So Many People Get Wrong About The Energy Transition

28 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With energy prices booming, heatwaves ravaging Europe, and Russia going to war against Ukraine, there's an increased focus on the so-called energy tra...

A New Chilean Constitution Could Mean Big Changes to Copper and Lithium Mining

27 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In theory, a big shift towards renewable sources of energy (like wind and solar and electric vehicles) mean less money and power for Russia, and the O...

What the Fed's Big Balance Sheet Unwind Means for Markets

25 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve recently began shrinking its massive balance sheet, unwinding trillions of dollars worth of bond purchases that it started making ...

Jason Calacanis On the Expensive Lesson Coming to Silicon Valley

21 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years, venture capital firms have been pouring money into start-ups, trying to get a piece of the next Amazon or Apple. Valuations for new tech co...

Why the US Dollar Is Booming And Creating A Possible Doom Loop

18 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Every time a crisis hits, you get a new round of people warning about the end of US dollar dominance. The Covid crisis and its aftermath is no excepti...

Matt Levine On What to Watch In Twitter vs. Elon Musk

15 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This week, Twitter sued Elon Musk, attempting to force him to make good on his 44 billion buyout offer for the company. This story has already been su...

The Bitcoin VC Who Just Infuriated The Bitcoin World

14 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

If you've ever interacted with hardcore Bitcoin maximalists you might find some of them, at least, to be... abrasive. And it's not just no-coiners who...

Josh Younger Explains Why the Bond Market Has Been So Volatile

11 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The market for US Treasuries is arguably one of the most important and liquid markets in the world. But it's been experiencing a number of hiccups in ...

The Moment a Most Famous Dotcom Millionaire Knew the Party Was Over

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The first real explosive Internet IPO was a company called TheGlobe.com. It was kind of a proto-social networking/message board site, and on the day i...

Admiral Stavridis on a Plan to Get Ukrainian Wheat Out of a Warzone

04 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation was running hot even before Russia invaded Ukraine, but disruption in Europe's bread basket certainly hasn't helped matters and there are no...

How to Spot a Fraud When Everyone's Against You

01 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

'Markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent' is a classic maxim for investors, but it holds true for journalists too. In this ep...

Jigar Shah on the DOE's Role In Accelerating The Energy Transition

30 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The situation in energy right now seems bleak. But while everyone is focused on the high price of gasoline, or the frailty of the electrical grid, adv...

Jay Newman on the Coming Crisis for Emerging Markets

27 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There are a lot of challenges facing emerging markets right now. For a start, the dollar has been pretty strong, heaping pressure on governments that ...

The Behind-the-Scenes Mess Now Facing the VC Industry

23 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There's a fairly linear relationship between what's going on in the stock market and what's going on in the world of venture capital and private tech ...

A Concrete Plan to Bring the Price of Oil Down Right Now

22 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The price of oil is the central threat to the economy right now. Surging gasoline costs crimp consumer budgets. Surging diesel costs make everything m...

Why It's So Hard to Get the Oil Taps Turned Back On

20 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Oil prices are sky high. And there's plenty of oil in the ground in North America. And so far the supply response has been disappointing. Frustration ...