Odd Lots

This Is What We Know About How Tether Works

12 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

2022 has seen numerous crypto disasters, most notably FTX. Also the price of most coins has tumbled massively. One coin that's done fine is the stable...

What Extreme Weather Events Are Doing to Global Insurance Markets

08 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes, floods... in a year of commodity shortages and supply chain disruptions, a host of extreme weather events have added ...

Brad DeLong on the FTX Collapse and the South Sea Bubble

05 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We're in the aftermath of an extraordinary bubble in cryptocurrencies and the collapse of FTX is a defining chapter of the industry's turmoil. But wha...

The Covid Protests in China and Why They Happened Now

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

China has seen a surge in protests in cities all around the country, targeted at the country's Covid Zero policies. But nearly three years into this p...

This Is What Happens to Silicon Valley in a Downturn

28 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The US economy may not be in a recession, but Silicon Valley, which had a mega-boom throughout the 2010s, is in a downturn. Tech stocks have tanked an...

Jim Chanos on Crypto, Tech and the Golden Age of Fraud

23 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this year we talked to the legendary short seller Jim Chanos, during which he warned of more pain ahead for speculative areas of tech. That ca...

Truckers Are Working Countless Hours That They're Not Getting Paid For

21 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years we've been hearing about a persistent shortage of truck drivers. But what if we're thinking about it wrong? What if the issue is that the sh...

Matt Levine on the Collapse of FTX and Alameda

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It was on an episode of the Odd Lots podcast in April 2022 that Sam Bankman-Fried infamously characterized yield farming as a "box," in a metaphor tha...

Understanding the Collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's Crypto Empire

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The collapse of the Sam Bankman-Fried empire is gigantic, sprawling and fast moving. While details are still coming out, it already ranks among the mo...

Guyana Is the Most Exciting Story in the World Oil Market

14 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We talk a lot about the US shale boom. And we talk a lot about OPEC. But one of the most exciting stories in the global oil industry is the incredible...

Isabella Weber On Germany's Plan to Cap the Price of Gas

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The surge in gas costs in Europe threatens to impose massive pain on households and cripple energy-intensive heavy industry. So there has been a lot o...

Josh Younger on the Origin Story of the Shadow Banking System

07 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There are a bunch of historical analogies that people like to reach for in order to describe some of the economic trends we're seeing today. There's o...

Mark Bergen on Apple's Threat to the Online Ad Industry

03 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

After years of basically printing money, the big online Internet behemoths are starting to stumble for various reasons. There's the macro slowdowns. N...

Hyun Song Shin Explains Why This Dollar Shock Is So Unique

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It's no secret that a strong US dollar causes the rest of the world pain, but the impact of this year's rally is shaping up to be a bit different than...

A Midwest Drought Is Creating a Supply Chain Crisis on the Mississippi River

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Midwest has been gripped by drought this year and water levels on the Mississippi River have fallen to their lowest marks in decades. That's bad n...

This Is The Legal Mess Now Facing the Trucking Industry

28 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When people think about the so-called 'gig economy' they probably first think about Uber. But truck drivers are arguably the original gig workers. And...

A Broken Market Is Causing Mortgage Rates to Surge

27 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

US mortgage rates have jumped to a two-decade high, with the average 30-year home loan now running above 7%. Of course, this makes sense. The Federal ...

This Is What the US Just Did to China on Semiconductors

24 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this month, the Biden administration unveiled a new set of restrictions on exporting semiconductors and related technology to China. The actio...

How the Alberta NDP Competes In One of Canada's Most Conservative Provinces

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Alberta is one of Canada's most conservative provinces, with an economy and culture that might be compared to Texas. However despite this lean, the Al...

Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Worse' Than the 1970s

19 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Nouriel Roubini is known for his bearish prognostications. And unfortunately, he still doesn't see any good news on the horizon. In fact, things are g...

Jigar Shah Just Became One of the Most Important Players in the Energy Transition

17 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Jigar Shah is the director of the loan office at the Department of Energy. For years, this division has had a modest amount of money, which it used to...

Dan Wang On the Extraordinary Moment for China's Party Congress

13 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Chinese government's biggest political gathering comes at a time of numerous challenges.Next week will see a major gathering of China's top offici...

This Is What 7% Mortgages Will Do To the Housing Market

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to the surge in mortgage rates, we've seen a historic collapse in mortgage affordability. New homebuyers are facing a massive sticker shock rel...

Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness

06 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

UK financial assets just experienced once-in-a-generation type moves in the wake of the government's mini-budget announcement. Not only did both gilts...

What Is Really Going On With Rent and Healthcare Inflation?

03 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

One of the biggest drivers of inflation is rent. Arguably, it's the whole ballgame right now. If rent growth stays firm, it's hard to see inflation ge...

Marko Papic on What Markets Got Wrong About Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

29 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a widespread expectation of a surge in prices for numerous commodities. That happened initially, but by and lar...

Pierre Andurand on What Europe Needs to Do This Winter

26 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Europe is facing an energy crisis and there are some dire predictions about how it will deal with the upcoming winter, when demand for electricity and...

Former CFTC Chair on How to Regulate Stablecoins Without Passing Any New Laws

22 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stablecoin regulation has become a hot topic, and for very good reason. For one thing, it's an extremely fast growing space. Stablecoins are also a pr...

The Ethereum Network Just Experienced a Monumental Development

19 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years, it's been on the Ethereum roadmap to transition its blockchain from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Well, it's finally happened. This mean...

Senator Pat Toomey on the Bad State of Crypto Regulation

15 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Cryptocurrencies often don't fit neatly into traditional asset buckets. They're not exactly currencies. They're not exactly commodities. And while man...

Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling Debate Bretton Woods 3.0

11 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has found a new level of fame over the last year, arguing that we're witnessing the birth of a new currency reg...

Ezra Klein on the Future of Supply-Side Liberalism

08 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

To the surprise of many people, the Biden administration has notched some significant economic policy wins this year. The CHIPS Act represents a major...

Just How Bad Is the Economy Getting in China?

05 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, China arguably led the world out of the downturn. Its gigantic fiscal stimulus not only boosted domestic gr...

Neel Kashkari on the Fed's Commitment to Defeating Inflation

31 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech intended to leave no ambiguity about the Fed's commitment to defeating infl...

Joelle Gamble Explains the Confusing State of the US Labor Market

29 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The unemployment rate is down to 3.5%, which is far lower than just about anyone thought it would be a year ago. So that's great. On the other hand, m...

Helene Meisler On What's Going On With the Stock Market Now

25 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode. And there's that old adage "don't fight the Fed" which means in theory it's a bad time for stocks. And yet ...

How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto

22 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In theory, what gets people most excited about crypto is lines going straight up. But one of the biggest successes in crypto is the rise of stablecoin...

This Is What Actually Determines the Price of A Gallon of Gas

19 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Gas prices are central to everything these days. Biden's approval rating seems to move inverse with the price of gasoline. The entire market started r...

This Is the Case for Building a More Robust Power Grid

18 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thanks to surging energy costs and extreme weather events, there's a greater urgency to decarbonize the electricity grid. However, it's not enough jus...

Just How Bad Will the Energy Crisis Be in Europe This Winter?

15 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As everyone knows, electricity prices in Europe have soared, due to a combination of factors, most prominently Russia's war in Ukraine and the curtail...

Pimco's Dan Ivascyn on the State of Markets Right Now

11 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Markets have staged an impressive bounce since the middle of June. Stocks are way up. Credit spreads have come in. Mortgage rates have tightened again...

Jan Hatzius on the Narrow Path to Avoid a Hard Landing

08 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The multi-trillion dollar question for the US economy is “Can inflation drop to the Federal Reserve’s target without a substantial jump in the une...

Anna Stansbury on How to Boost Worker Bargaining Power

04 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Labor markets are considered to be "tight" right now, but wage growth continues to lag inflation. For decades, in fact, we've seen a steady decline in...

Benn Eifert On The Mania That Was Even Bigger Than Meme Stocks

01 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When people think about the market mania we recently experienced, the most glaring thing that comes to mind is the meme stocks. In early 2021, the hug...

What So Many People Get Wrong About The Energy Transition

28 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With energy prices booming, heatwaves ravaging Europe, and Russia going to war against Ukraine, there's an increased focus on the so-called energy tra...

A New Chilean Constitution Could Mean Big Changes to Copper and Lithium Mining

27 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In theory, a big shift towards renewable sources of energy (like wind and solar and electric vehicles) mean less money and power for Russia, and the O...

What the Fed's Big Balance Sheet Unwind Means for Markets

25 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve recently began shrinking its massive balance sheet, unwinding trillions of dollars worth of bond purchases that it started making ...

Jason Calacanis On the Expensive Lesson Coming to Silicon Valley

21 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years, venture capital firms have been pouring money into start-ups, trying to get a piece of the next Amazon or Apple. Valuations for new tech co...

Why the US Dollar Is Booming And Creating A Possible Doom Loop

18 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Every time a crisis hits, you get a new round of people warning about the end of US dollar dominance. The Covid crisis and its aftermath is no excepti...

Matt Levine On What to Watch In Twitter vs. Elon Musk

15 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

This week, Twitter sued Elon Musk, attempting to force him to make good on his 44 billion buyout offer for the company. This story has already been su...

The Bitcoin VC Who Just Infuriated The Bitcoin World

14 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

If you've ever interacted with hardcore Bitcoin maximalists you might find some of them, at least, to be... abrasive. And it's not just no-coiners who...

Josh Younger Explains Why the Bond Market Has Been So Volatile

11 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The market for US Treasuries is arguably one of the most important and liquid markets in the world. But it's been experiencing a number of hiccups in ...

The Moment a Most Famous Dotcom Millionaire Knew the Party Was Over

07 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The first real explosive Internet IPO was a company called TheGlobe.com. It was kind of a proto-social networking/message board site, and on the day i...

Admiral Stavridis on a Plan to Get Ukrainian Wheat Out of a Warzone

04 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation was running hot even before Russia invaded Ukraine, but disruption in Europe's bread basket certainly hasn't helped matters and there are no...

How to Spot a Fraud When Everyone's Against You

01 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

'Markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent' is a classic maxim for investors, but it holds true for journalists too. In this ep...

Jigar Shah on the DOE's Role In Accelerating The Energy Transition

30 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The situation in energy right now seems bleak. But while everyone is focused on the high price of gasoline, or the frailty of the electrical grid, adv...

Jay Newman on the Coming Crisis for Emerging Markets

27 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There are a lot of challenges facing emerging markets right now. For a start, the dollar has been pretty strong, heaping pressure on governments that ...

The Behind-the-Scenes Mess Now Facing the VC Industry

23 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There's a fairly linear relationship between what's going on in the stock market and what's going on in the world of venture capital and private tech ...

A Concrete Plan to Bring the Price of Oil Down Right Now

22 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The price of oil is the central threat to the economy right now. Surging gasoline costs crimp consumer budgets. Surging diesel costs make everything m...

Why It's So Hard to Get the Oil Taps Turned Back On

20 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Oil prices are sky high. And there's plenty of oil in the ground in North America. And so far the supply response has been disappointing. Frustration ...

Jim Chanos on Why Some of the Worst Hit Parts of the Market Still Have More Pain Ahead

16 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Legendary short seller Jim Chanos says that despite the plunge in stocks, there are numerous swathes of the equity market with plenty of downside risk...

Daryl Fairweather On the Tax That Could Solve the Housing Crisis

13 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Housing in the US is a constant source of frustration. On the way up, prospective homebuyers worry that they're missing out on their chance to jump on...

Foxconn Has a Plan to Upend the Electric Vehicle Industry

09 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Most people think of Foxconn as the company that assembles iPhones. But it's a lot more than that. In fact the company really got started by manufactu...

This Year's American Wheat Harvest Has Been Awful

06 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There are numerous macro factors driving elevated inflation. But in some categories, there also seems to be a lot of bad luck. When it comes to the US...

Silvergate CEO Alan Lane On the Business of Stablecoin

02 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The collapse of the Terra/Luna experiment has brought fresh attention to stablecoins, and the different flavors they come in. Some are fully backed wi...

Why Copper May Be One of the Tightest Markets The World Has Ever Seen

30 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

These days, oil gets all the attention. Consumers feel and see the pinch directly every time they fill up their gas tank. But the big story in the nex...

This Is What It Takes to Win in the World of Freight Brokerage

27 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The world of trucking is extraordinarily complex. There are an untold number of players that need to ship goods around the country. And there are tens...

Ed Harrison Explains What the Fed Is Really Trying to Accomplish

26 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is too high, and the Federal Reserve has started on an aggressive hiking path in order to tame it. But will these hikes really accomplish an...

Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to Fall

23 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to FallInflation is at its highest in four decades and the Federal Reserve is raising rates at t...

Arthur Breitman on the Biggest Problems in Blockchain Design

20 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We continue to see an explosion of interest and money flowing into the crypto/blockchain space. But recent price declines and the Terra disaster have ...

Stephanie Kelton On MMT and the Inflation We're Seeing Today

19 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years, economists of the MMT school have been arguing that the way we think about deficits and government spending is all wrong. Whereas many peop...

This Is How the Terra Stablecoin Actually Imploded

15 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The collapse of the Terra ecosystem, and the tokens Luna and UST, will go down as one of the most painful and devastating chapters in crypto history. ...

This Is What Happened to the GameStop Mania

12 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The first true meme stock was GameStop, which went wild in early 2021, delivering brutal losses to short sellers, and a fortune to a handful of indepe...

Here's What Just Happened to the Stock Market and the Economy

09 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It's really been an extraordinary year for markets and the economy. Stocks are down, particularly, growth stocks which have gotten clobbered. Treasuri...

This Is What's Next for the Future of Air Travel

05 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The aviation industry has never seen a disruption like what it's experienced over the last two years with the pandemic. Air travel ground to a virtual...

Javier Blas Explains How Commodity Trading Shops Really Work

02 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

One of the big themes these days is the return of the 'real' economy. You can't solve problems these days with just money. Not everything can be done ...

This Is How a Locked-Down Shanghai Apartment Gets Food

29 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Shanghai, a city of nearly 30 million people, is currently under a hard lockdown, as the Chinese government sticks to its Covid Zero strategy of limit...

This Is What Happened to the Meme Stock Mania

28 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Spring of 2021 was peak meme mania. GameStop was going nuts. AMC was going nuts. And in general, the big cohort of traders that entered the market in ...

Sam Bankman-Fried and Matt Levine on How to Make Money in Crypto

25 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The price of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been moving sideways for awhile. But it doesn't seem like there's any slowdown in t...

The 1906 Dredging Law That May Be Holding Back The U.S. Economy

20 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The long grounding of the cargo ship The Ever Forward has shone a spotlight on the limited dredging equipment that exists in the U.S. The most powerfu...

This Is The Challenge Of Securing The Battery Supply Chain

18 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

With oil prices surging, there's a sense of greater urgency about moving more towards electric vehicles. But of course the metals that go into EVs are...

Jeff Currie on the 'Volatility Trap' Keeping Commodity Prices So High

14 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Goldman's top commodity strategist Jeff Currie was one of the earliest to call that we're in a new commodities supercycle, starting early last year. W...

This Is What 5% Mortgage Rates Mean Now For The Housing Market

11 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For much of the last two decades, housing has been the consummate macro asset. It was at the heart of a huge boom. Then there was the crash and the Gr...

This Is Zoltan Pozsar's Vision For Bretton Woods III

07 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several years, most economic crises have been solvable by money. Swap lines. Bailouts. Central bank asset purchases, and so on. But now ...

What Wooden Pallets Have to Do With Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

05 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Most people don't think much about wooden pallets -- and that might be true even of people conducting large-scale military invasions. Recent reports c...

How Bill Gross Built a Bond Empire And Then Lost It All

04 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For a long time, bond investing was considered a sleepy backwater. You bought a bond and just clipped coupons as you waited for it mature. Boring! The...

The Real Reason So Many Musicians Are Frustrated By Spotify

01 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this year, there was a growing movement among some musicians (lead by Neil Young) to remove music from Spotify as a protest against Joe Rogan....

Hugh Hendry On Why The World Still Can't Get Enough Dollar Assets

31 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

For years 15 years, Hugh Hendry ran the hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, earning a reputation as a provocative and contrarian thinker on the ent...

Viktor Shvets on Why We Might Be Heading for a Deflationary Bust

28 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In times of uncertainty, people often reach for historical analogies. In recent weeks and months, as inflation has continued to climb and commodity pr...

A Historic Disruption To The World's Wheat Supply

24 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to commodities, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had a notable impact on the price of oil and natural gas. It's also a huge deal for whe...

Why Tracy's Furniture Is Stuck on a Grounded Ship

23 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It's happened again. Another container ship owned by the Evergreen Maritime Corp. has gotten stuck a year after the Ever Given became lodged in the Su...

Here’s How Messy a Russian Bond Default Could Be

21 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There’s a big question over whether Russia will be able (or willing) to make payments on billions of dollars it’s borrowed from investors given it...

Pierre Andurand on How We Might Get $200 a Barrel Oil

17 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has kicked off a giant mess in the world of commodities and sent prices surging. Commodities trader Pierre Andurand has m...

This Is The Case For Investing In Nuclear Power

14 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The soaring price of electricity, particularly in Europe, is once again causing a search for alternative sources of power. Obviously there's a lot of ...

Here's What Cyber War With Russia Would Actually Look Like

10 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. Indeed, there were already reports of some in the run up to th...

Matt Klein on How Germany Wound up So Dependent on Russian Gas

07 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Harsh sanctions have been imposed against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, the country's energy exports have largely been spared. One sig...

This Is What Sanctions Can Do to the Russian Economy

03 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. and E.U. countries have unveiled extraordinarily tough sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. But what effect will they have? Are...

Zoltan Pozsar on Russia, Gold, and a Turning Point for the U.S. Dollar

02 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Even prior to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the global economy was facing an extraordinary moment. Now things have become massively more complex. In add...

This Is the Teamster Effort To Organize the Truckers at the Ports

28 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Some truckers make good money and have a high degree of control of their schedule. Others work for low pay under exceptionally difficult conditions. P...

The White House’s Brian Deese on Supply Chains and Biden’s Economic Agenda

24 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

GDP is booming. The labor market is booming. However inflation is elevated, and consumer sentiment is deeply depressed. So where does the White House ...