Odd Lots

This Is What Needs To Happen for Oil Prices to Finally Come Down

21 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The price of oil has surged over the last year, and U.S. oil companies are making money hand over first. In theory, the high prices should stabilize a...

Howard Lindzon on What’s Really Going on in the Tech Plunge

17 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It's been a terrible few months for growth stocks. Small, unprofitable tech companies have crashed. SPACs have gotten crushed. Recent IPOs got crushed...

Tim Duy on the Huge Challenge the Fed Now Has in 2022

14 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

As inflation data continues to come in hotter than expected, pressure on the Fed is ramping up big time. Traders are betting on more and more hikes, w...

Michael Lewis on Why the World Is Still Reading “Liar’s Poker”

10 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The book “Liar's Poker” came out in 1989. Its depiction of Wall Street culture — obnoxious, crude, drunk on risk — may seem very different to ...

This Is What Happened to the Price of Nails Over the Last 330 Years

07 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

We're in a period of elevated inflation right now. But at least there's some good news: The price of nails is lower than it was in 1695. But how do we...

Eva Beylin on eGirl Capital, The Graph, and Building Web3

03 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Obviously, there's been a tremendous amount of volatility in crypto lately. But what has been the effect on people who are deeply involved in the spac...

China Is Changing Its Coal Use, and It Affects the Whole World

31 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several months, Europe has seen its power costs soar. There are many drivers of it, but one factor has been a shift in Chinese energy co...

This Is the Evergrande Endgame as China’s Property Problems Spread

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Late last year, the big Chinese property developer Evergrande started running into severe financial distress, as its bonds tumbled and frustrated cust...

The Electric Vehicle Revolution Is On, and It’s Going to Change Everything

24 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The EV revolution is official on. Sales are soaring around the world as the internal combustion engine era starts to fade. But if you're just thinking...

Inventory Vanishing and Bidding Wars Exploding in Crazy U.S. Housing Market

20 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

If you wanted to buy a home in 2021, you probably found it a frustrating experience, rife with a shortage of options, and intense bidding wars. Well? ...

Paul Mcnamara on the Problem With Turkey, and the Attempt To Save the Lira

17 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Near the end of 2021, Turkey's government undertook a bold measure to stabilize the lira after the currency got clobbered throughout much of the year....

Afghanistan’s Former Central Bank Chief on the Dire State of the Country’s Economy

13 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Afghanistan economy was already in bad shape, with heavy reliance on foreign dollars, prior to the collapse of the government and the takeover by ...

A Top Antitrust Lawyer on How Increased Competition Could Fight Inflation

10 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

When people think about tools to fight inflation, usually things like taxes or monetary policy come to mind. But lately there’s been more discussion...

Why the Price of Coffee Beans Soared in the Last Year

06 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Agricultural commodities have generally surged in price over the last year. One commodity that's gone particularly wild is the coffee bean. Arabica be...

Understanding Turkey’s Bold Plan To Stabilize the Lira

03 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Turkish lira was incredibly volatile in 2021. After getting crushed and falling to record levels, it bounced back in the middle of December after ...

Mike Demarais on Design in Crypto and What Web 3.0 Will Look Like

27 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Everyone's talking about Web 3.0 (or Web3), but there's a lot of ambiguity about what exactly it's going to look like or even what it is. Nonetheless,...

Jon Turek on the Macro Outlook for 2022

23 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

2021 was a historic year for markets and the broader economy. For the first time, seemingly in ages, there was a serious shift in realized inflation a...

Gene Seroka on What’s Happening Now at the Port of LA

20 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's no single measure we can look at to tell us whether supply chains are improving or not. There are some signs of easing (such as the number of ...

This Is the Booming Movement To Abolish Work as We Know It

16 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over a million people are members of a subreddit called r/AntiWork, whose slogan is "Unemployment for all, not just the rich." While the page and move...

Why the Price of Wooden Shipping Pallets Has Soared

13 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The humble wooden shipping pallet is probably not something that most people think about too much. But it's a huge deal. At Virginia Tech, there's a w...

This Is Why the Nation Is Facing a School Bus Driver Shortage

09 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There have been a lot of stories about the challenges of keeping schools open over the last two years, much to the consternation of many parents. But,...

Richard Bookstaber on the Big Structural Risk in the Market Right Now

06 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The stock market has basically been a one-way ship for 20 months now. So of course, some people get nervous about that, and start wondering if we're i...

Paradigm’s Matt Huang on the Biggest Crypto Fund Ever Raised

02 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Money continues to pour into the crypto space at a rapid clip. Institutions, VCs, private investors all seem to have gotten the bug over the last year...

Why Job Openings Are Surging, Even With So Many People Out of Work

29 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Normally, economists expect a somewhat stable relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate. More job openings = more people are employe...

The White House’s Envoy on What They’re Doing To Fix the Ports

25 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Most of the big retailers have assured their customers that shelves will be stocked for the holidays this year. Nonetheless, there has been a lot of a...

Jason Furman on Red-Hot Inflation and What To Do About It

22 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is hot. You can debate why that is, or how long it will last, or who is to blame, or whether elevated inflation is a worthwhile price to pay...

Here's Why It's So Hard to Fix the Corporate Bond Market

18 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The corporate bond market is huge and important, allowing U.S. companies to tap investors for much needed borrowing. But even as sales of bonds have b...

ASML, the Obscure Powerhouse at the Cutting Edge of Chip Technology

15 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

This year has brought fresh awareness to the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor, the big manufacturer, has become a ho...

This Is the Perfect Storm That Caused Grain Prices To Soar

11 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is running at its fastest pace in over 30 years. And one upward contributor to it is higher food prices. There are all kinds of things going...

Stinson Dean on the Lumber Crash That Followed the Boom

08 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

These days, commodities around the world are on a tear. But earlier this year, there was a lot of fixation on one in particular: lumber. Lumber went a...

Citi’s Matt King on Why Inflation Isn’t Transitory and the Fed May Induce a Recession

04 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is elevated these days, and markets around the world are pricing in rate hikes. However, risk assets like stocks are doing just fine. There ...

This Is How They Could Literally Mint a Trillion Dollar Coin

01 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Craig Fuller on the Huge Challenge of Getting the Ports To Operate 24/7

28 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In recent weeks, the White House has attempted to make a greater effort to improve the functioning of supply chains. One effort includes getting the P...

Dan Alpert on the Big Difference Between Now and the 1970s

25 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Official inflation measures in the U.S. remain elevated and so, of course, this has a lot of people thinking about the 1970s. Not only was this the la...

Axie Infinity, the Crypto Game That’s Grown Over 200x This Year Alone

21 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Bitcoin just hit an all-time high and crypto mania is in full swing. One of this year's big winners has to be Axie Infinity, a blockchain-based game, ...

Goldman’s Jeff Currie: It’s a Commodities Supercycle, and We Still Haven’t Hit Max Pain

18 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Back in January, we spoke with Jeff Currie, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs. At the time, he was bullish on the commodities c...

Ryan Petersen on How Global Supply Chains Have Gotten Even Worse

14 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

We've been covering global supply chain pressures almost since the beginning of the year on Odd Lots. And with each episode the question is "ok, so wh...

Michael Pettis on What Evergrande Means for China’s Macro Economy

11 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The implosion of Evergrande continues. And nobody knows exactly how the losses will be distributed. What will be the impact on creditors or people who...

Introducing: Breakthrough

08 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We sta...

Here Are the Biggest Problems Facing the Fed Right Now

07 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve has a lot on its plate at the moment. Not only are "transitory" inflation pressures proving to be more stubborn than expected, but...

This Is How the Trillion Dollar Coin Could End Debt Ceiling Fights for Good

04 Oct 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Every few years, people are reminded of the weird law the United States has: the debt ceiling. Congress has to vote affirmatively to raise the total o...

Isabella Weber on China’s Vision for Making Markets Work

30 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

For years, people have talked about China's ongoing process of opening up, or liberalizing its economy. And yet lately it's taken strong moves that se...

This Is What the Pandemic Did to the U.S. Rail System

27 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The pandemic has obviously sent shockwaves throughout the supply chain. And, despite hopes of normalization, things might even be getting worse. The n...

How To Understand the Inflation We’re Seeing Right Now

23 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several months, inflation has risen at a pace significantly faster than what economists have expected. Markets, and perhaps the Fed, tak...

Understanding Evergrande, the Chinese Real Estate Conglomerate That’s Nearing Collapse

20 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

If you've been following the wild ride that is Chinese real estate, then you've definitely heard of Evergrande. The price of its shares and bonds has ...

Stacy Rasgon on How the Global Chip Crisis May Be Getting Even Worse

16 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

We've been talking about chips on Odd Lots for almost a year now. Thanks to a unique combination of events and constraints, capacity to make more semi...

Dan Wang Explains What China's Tech Crackdown Is Really All About

13 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several months, Chinese authorities have undertaken a sweeping campaign of change. We've seen crackdowns on big tech and fintech compani...

Zoltan Pozsar on What’s Going on in Rates Markets Right Now

09 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's a lot happening in the plumbing of the financial system. The Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility has seen huge takeup from financial marke...

Patrick O'Shaughnessy on the Next Big Thing in Passive Investing

06 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Passive investing is kind of boring. You dump your money in an index fund and that's it. The industry hasn't really seen big innovation since ETFs wer...

Omair Sharif Explains How Inflation Measures Really Work

02 Sep 2021

Contributed by Lukas

When people think about what inflation is, they might first think about some broad index like the CPI. What does the the CPI really tell us? And how i...

How Solana and Pyth Aim To Take DeFi to the Next Level

30 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's obviously a lot of interest in crypto and DeFi these days. And while it's growing rapidly, it's still not cutting much into traditional financ...

Mitu Gulati and Ugo Panizza on Haiti’s Odious Post-Colonial Debt

26 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Nearly 200 years ago, the colonialist French power granted independence to Haiti. But it did so under the brutal condition that it pay 150 million fra...

A Conversation With Ajmal Ahmady, Afghanistan’s Former Central Bank Chief

23 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last week and a half, the world has watched in shock at the dizzying speed of the collapse in Afghanistan. Events are still unfolding, so the...

David Woo on What the Economists Got Wrong About the Stimulus

19 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

David Woo has always been one of the most outspoken voices on the street. A former top strategist at Bank of America, he is now publishing independent...

Neel Kashkari on the Fed’s Quest To Get To Full Employment

16 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The last two jobs reports have been strong, but the unemployment rate remains over 5%. And by some estimates, the economy is still 8 million jobs shy ...

Brent Donnelly on What It Takes To Be a Winning Trader

12 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The last 18 months has seen an incredible influx of people getting into trading. Thanks to a combination of Robinhood, a bull market, and perhaps more...

Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan on the Economy and Monetary Policy Right Now

09 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The economy is in uncharted territory in more ways that one right now. Coming out of the worst of the pandemic, we're seeing a rapid pace of GDP growt...

Sam Bankman-Fried and Matt Levine on How the Crypto Market Really Works

05 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Sam Bankman-Fried is arguably the most important and powerful person in crypto. His crypto exchange FTX just raised $900 million and is growing like c...

Gene Seroka on the Logistical Logjam at the Port of LA

02 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

America's ports are a key source of congestion contributing to supply chain disruptions rippling through the economy. Things have gotten a little bett...

The Bathtub Episode: How the Pandemic Disrupted Plumbing

29 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

When you think about building a new home, obviously you think of various constraints regarding land, labor, and raw materials. But, of course, you can...

GXO's CIO on the Past, Present, and Future of Warehouses

26 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

You can't talk about supply chains without talking about warehouses. Basically everything we buy at some point eventually sits in a warehouse. But war...

What Complexity Economics Can Add to Our View of the World

22 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the past year it's become clear that traditional economics doesn't necessarily do a great job of accounting for real world problems like transpor...

Why Everyone's Experience Of Inflation Is So Different

19 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is running hot these days. But, even when the official measures were considerably cooler, there were many people who were skeptical and insi...

Vlad Zamfir on the Dangers of Unstoppable Software and What People Get Wrong About Blockchains

15 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Vlad Zamfir is something of a crypto legend. The researcher was early into Bitcoin, and he was part of the Ethereum Foundation before it launched. He'...

The Labor Episode: How the Omni Hotel Chain Is Dealing With Hiring Right Now

12 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

One of the big stories in the economy right now is the high number of unfilled job openings in the leisure and hospitality sectors. There are numerous...

Steve Keen Says Economists Get Everything Wrong (Especially About Climate Change)

08 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Mainstream economics has come under attack lately. People have begun questioning its understanding of things like inflation, monetary policy, deficits...

Ryan Holiday on Opening a Bookstore During a Pandemic

05 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Bookstores typically aren't seen as the most attractive businesses in the year 2021. Add in the pandemic, and that makes it even tougher. And if you'r...

This Is the Vision for DeFi Built on Bitcoin

01 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's a lot of hype about so-called DeFi (decentralized finance) these days, and much of it is based on enthusiasm over what can be built on Ethereu...

Tom Schmidt Explains What You Need to Know about DeFi

28 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

By now you've no doubt heard about DeFi: the hot vision of crypto that aims to disrupt traditional lending and fundraising. But the space remains real...

Hyun Song Shin on CBDCs and the Future of Central Banking

24 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The world's central bankers are facing challenges the likes of which they've never seen before. We're in a unique moment for the macroeconomy, coming ...

The Trucking Episode: Why the Industry Is Such a Mess

21 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

You can't talk about the problems in logistics and supply chains right now without talking about trucking. Once goods are unloaded from ships, trucks ...

Why Ram Parameswaran Says the World's Biggest Tech Stocks Are Ridiculously Cheap Right Now

17 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Everyone knows that tech stocks performed amazingly well amid the coronavirus crisis. In the last few months, there's been a little bit of a cooling o...

Why Tracy Can't Ship a Teddy Bear from Hong Kong to the U.S. Right Now

14 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

By this point, you're aware that shipping anything internationally is pretty tough right now. It turns out, it's getting worse. Earlier in the year, T...

Why Brooklyn Nets Star Spencer Dinwiddie Co-Founded a Crypto Startup

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last year, numerous celebrities and athletes have gotten into crypto in some way. For example, some have announced plans to put part of their...

This Is How the U.S. Ran Out of Homes for Sale

07 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Home demand is booming. By some measures, the market is even hotter than it was during the peak prior to the financial crisis. But there's one big pro...

Dan Ariely on How To Win Big by Betting on Human Capital

03 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Dan Ariely is one of the most famous behavioral economists in the world. And in his latest act, he's attempted to apply his research to investing. His...

Roshun Patel on What Really Happened During the Crypto Market Crash

31 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The crypto market recently experienced one of its worst crashes ever, with numerous coins cut in half in a manner of days, seemingly without an obviou...

Data Centers, Crypto Miners, and Gamers Are All Battling for Semiconductors

27 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

These days, there's a shortage of chips everywhere you look. Some of it is related to idiosyncratic events specifically related to logistics. Some of ...

Daniela Gabor on the Critical Case Against Private Sector ESG

24 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last few years, ESG has become a gigantic industry. Due to concerns over climate, the treatment of workers, and other public matters, there's...

Aaron Lammer on Yield Farming and Trading in the World of DeFi

20 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

"Decentralized Finance," "Yield farming"... you've probably heard these terms before, but have very little idea about how they all work. On a recent e...

How the World's Companies Wound Up in a Deepening Supply Chain Nightmare

17 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

By now, everybody knows that global supply chains are a mess. Not a day goes by where there isn't news of some shortage or bottleneck. Chips, shipping...

Jared Bernstein on Taxes, Spending, and Why President Biden Wants to 'Pay for It'

13 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Jared Bernstein has been a longtime advisor to President Joe Biden. He was his advisor while Biden was Vice President, and today he serves on the Coun...

A Special Announcement From Joe and Tracy

11 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Please check out this special announcement from Joe and Tracy, who have an update on a new Odd Lots initiative, involving a new blog, show transcripts...

Viktor Shvets on Inflation and How Crypto Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis

10 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What will the economy really look like when things normalize? Lots of people are, of course, anticipating a sustained rise in inflation, even beyond t...

Hayden Adams Explains Uniswap and the Rise of DeFi

06 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's an irony with crypto. While so much of it is ostensibly about circumventing legacy finance, many of the most important pieces of crypto infras...

How to Make the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Boom Again

03 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

This year, everyone's become aware of the hollowing out of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Whether it's the rise of TSMC, the stumbles at I...

What Adam Tooze Learned About the World Last Year

29 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's probably nobody better at synthesizing massive events like Columbia professor Adam Tooze. His book Crashed, which came out in 2018, was probab...

Why the Price of Lumber Has Soared Day After Day After Day

26 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It's not often that lumber becomes a national obsession. But this year it has. Thanks to a combination of factors, including diminished sawmill capaci...

How to Build a Portfolio That Outperforms For a Century

22 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

There's a huge question mark at the moment about whether markets are at some sort of important turning point. For instance, we've seen big amounts of ...

John Hempton on Greensill, Archegos and What It's Like To Short Right Now

19 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

It's a weird moment for the markets. The big stock indices are near all time highs. And yet there have been some high profile meltdowns and blowups. T...

Zach Carter on the Real Story of Weimar Hyperinflation

15 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Whenever the government is engaging in fiscal or monetary expansion, people like to invoke the history of Weimar Germany and how soon we might all go ...

Slavoj Žižek on GameStop, WallStreetBets, and the Future of Capitalism

12 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

When GameStop shares skyrocketed earlier this year, numerous pundits were quick to ascribe political significance to the whole thing. Was it a rebelli...

Why Treasury Market Spasms That Shouldn't Happen Keep Happening

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. Treasury market is the biggest, most liquid market in the world. Its smooth functioning is also crucial to the economy and the financial syst...

Why the True Price of a Bond Can Still Be Hard To Know

05 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In the modern age, we expect to be able to turn on our computers, enter in a ticker, and know the actual price of a financial instrument, such as a st...

The Ex-Jane Street Trader Who's Building a Multi-Billion Crypto Empire

01 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The crypto market has come a long way in recent years. But it's still far less efficient than your typical established market. To understand more abou...

How Gigantic Ships Are Creating Global Supply Chain Havoc

31 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

The Ever Given has been freed from the Suez Canal. But the whole situation was indicative of a broader issue in global supply chains: increasingly lar...

Virtu CEO Doug Cifu Explains Payment for Order Flow and the Future of HFT

29 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

When the GameStop and Robinhood story exploded at the end of January, suddenly everyone took an interest in market structure and things like payment f...

Josh Younger on the Soaring Cost of Climate Change and Understanding the SLR

25 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

What is the connection between the big trend in interest rates over the last several years and the cost of climate change mitigation? This is a questi...

Luke Kawa on the Macro Situation Right Now

22 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last several weeks, we've seen major developments in the macro situation. The vaccine rollout has accelerated. We've gotten a stimulus. The e...

Stephanie Kelton on How MMT Won the Fiscal Policy Debate

18 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

In a sense, Modern Monetary Theory has won. This is not because policy measures are necessarily in line with what MMT adherents would prescribe. Rathe...