Odd Lots

We Just Saw Europe's Biggest Week in Decades

07 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week was a busy one and some of the most interesting things that happened came out of Europe, where policymakers announced up to €800 billio...

Eugene Fama and David Booth on the Birth of Modern Finance

06 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The 1970s were a pretty eventful time in markets. There was high inflation, the end of the gold standard, and a stock market crash. There was also a b...

Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt

03 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt l...

Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market

28 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A week from today we will get the February jobs report and there are growing concerns that the US labor market is slowing. Already, the number of sect...

Goldman's Jared Cohen and George Lee on the Unprecedented Shocks in Geopolitics

27 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The first month of the Trump administration has been noisy and novel by basically any measure. But perhaps the biggest shockwaves have been in the rea...

Jim Bianco on What a 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' Could Mean for the Economy

25 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord” has suddenly become a hot topic on Wall Street, with some investors and analysts starting to take the id...

Here's What It Takes to Make a Great Company

24 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

People love listening to stories about making it big, and there are no shortage of success stories in the world of global business. There's TSMC, whic...

How Banks Turned Into Giant Synthetic Hedge Funds

21 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Hedge funds are notorious for making big and sometimes risky trades. Banks, meanwhile, are supposed to be a lot more boring by comparison — for ...

The Plan to Get America Building Big Ships Again

20 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The US is a dominant force in a number of important industries, but it's been lagging behind in one crucial area: shipbuilding. Today, there are about...

This Is How Derivatives Trading Swallowed the Entire Market

17 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

For a long time, the world of derivatives trading was a niche thing, largely occupied by professional investors who used them for hedging purposes. Du...

This Is Why People Are So in Love With Gold

14 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The price of gold is basically at record highs. But what is it about gold that people love so much? Why have people always craved a metal that has no ...

How the Fed Distributes Billions of Dollars in Cash

13 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We all know that the Federal Reserve tries to stabilize the economy by raising or cutting interest rates to balance inflation and unemployment. But th...

This Is Why It's So Hard To Cut Public Spending

10 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Trump administration has come into office with big ambitions to lower the size of the US deficit. So far, a number of small items have been identi...

Philip Lane on the Big Problems Facing the Euro-zone Economy

07 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's a pretty widespread recognition that the EU is facing a bunch of economic challenges right now. Growth has been slowing and, as in many places...

This Is Palantir's Vision for Changing How the US Does Defense Spending

06 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week, we saw shares of software maker Palantir soar after reporting earnings and describing demand for AI as being "untamed." But what does Palan...

The Treasury Payment System Elon Musk Now Has Access To

05 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gained access to a unit within the Treasury Department called the Bureau of Fiscal S...

The Tariff Announcement That Shocked Financial Markets

03 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was following through with his plan for aggressive tariffs. Imports from Canada and Mexico will no...

Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

03 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Marko Kolanovic was one of the biggest names in markets, earning the nickname 'Gandalf' for some eerily prescient calls over the years. But last July ...

Lots More with Matt Levine on MicroStrategy's Infinite Money Machine

31 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Everyone knows by now that MicroStrategy looks a lot like a giant Bitcoin ETF. Its founder, Michael Saylor, is a huge supporter of the cryptocurrency ...

Get Ready For Another Shock to Housing Affordability

30 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying...

The AI Model That Tanked the Stock Market

28 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

On Monday, the stock market tanked, seemingly in reaction to the emergence of DeepSeek, an open source AI model developed in China. Nvidia, the semico...

How Oaktree's Howard Marks Spots a Market Bubble

27 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The run-up in Big Tech stocks and all the hype over AI has put a bunch of investors on "bubble watch." One of those is Howard Marks, the co-founder an...

Why the Stock Market Might Be at Peak Concentration Risk

24 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's a lot of talk right now about concentration risk in US equities. For instance, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 currently account for 38% ...

How Companies Are Actually Spending Money on AI Now

23 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In theory, all of this AI spending has to deliver some kind of return. Companies (or other end users) will have to get tangible value from its outputs...

Introducing: Trumponomics

22 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Tariffs, crypto, deregulation, tax cuts, protectionism, are just some of the things back on the table when Donald Trump returns to the Presidency. To ...

This Is What the Crypto Industry Actually Wants From Trump

20 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We all know that the new Trump administration is likely to be more friendly to the crypto industry than the Biden administration was. And we know that...

Lots More with Lev Menand on the Eurodollar Market Now

17 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Odd Lots has been exploring the history of the eurodollar market in a special three-part series hosted by Columbia Law School's Lev Menand and the New...

The Hidden History of Eurodollars, Part 3: Spinning Out of Control

16 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. By the 1970s, eurodollars are hitting the headlines &md...

The Hidden History of Eurodollars, Part 2: Defending the Dollar System

15 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In this special three-part series, Odd Lots is exploring the history of the eurodollar market. As we enter the turbulent 1960s, the eurodollar market ...

The Hidden History of Eurodollars, Part 1: Cold War Origins

14 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

At more than $10 trillion outstanding, the eurodollar market is one of the biggest forms of shadow banking activity out there. It's also one of the mo...

Why Government Hiring Is So Inefficient

13 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Regardless of your political ideology, it's easy to agree that government should work well; that it should be able to hire talented officials, and bui...

Evolving Money: A Faster, Cheaper Way to Pay (Sponsored Content)

12 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the 1950s, a businessman, looking for a new way to settle his lunch tab, sparked a payments revolution and paved the way for today’s cashless...

Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds

10 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

One of the biggest stories in markets right now is the huge selloff in government bonds. And we're not just talking about the US here. The UK is seein...

This Is How Electricity Rates Are Actually Set

09 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Utilities in the US have a couple big jobs to do. On the one hand, they need to deliver affordable and reliable power to their customers. On the other...

What It Felt Like When Everyone Was Hopeful, Happy, and Rich

06 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

If you look at various surveys, Americans feel grim about the state of the economy. But even outside of the economy itself, you see negative readings ...

This Is How China Builds So Much Nuclear Power

03 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the US right now, there is a lot of talk about a so-called "nuclear revival." But it remains to be seen whether we'll see a meaningful uptick in ac...

The Odd Lots AMA Episode: Tracy and Joe Answer Listener Questions

02 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As is becoming something of an annual tradition here, we recently asked Odd Lots listeners to send in any questions they have about the show to Tracy ...

The 10 Most Interesting Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2024

30 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As 2024 comes to an end, Tracy and Joe once again look back at the year that was in Odd Lots. On this final episode of the year, we revisit 10 of the ...

Odd Lots Talks Beak Capitalism on Money Stuff Talking Chicken

27 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Back in November, we released our series called Beak Capitalism, which took a look at the entire US economy through the lens of chicken. Then we went ...

Jennifer Granholm on What Will Survive of Biden's Energy Legacy

26 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Biden administration made energy and climate a centerpiece of its administration, most notably through the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same ti...

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Explains the 'Hawkish Cut'

23 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points, but simultaneously signaled a slower pace of cuts for next year. The guidance s...

Jim Caron on the Market Selloff and the Fed's Historic Adjustment

20 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But it also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, and sees just ...

Nina Achadjian on What It Takes to Win in VC Right Now

19 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The world of startup investing has undergone massive transformations amid the AI boom, changing capital markets, and an intense degree of competition ...

This Stove Company Wants to Change How the World Uses Energy

16 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the minor culture wars in America has to do with electric stoves. To some, they're more energy efficient and better for air quality. To others,...

Tim Latimer on Solving the Financing Problem for Geothermal

13 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Geothermal is a promising technology to provide clean, low-cost, baseload power to the electricity grid. It works by getting heat from deep in the gro...

Why You Can't Get a One-Click Mortgage Refi

12 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

You can do a lot of things with the click of a button nowadays. You can get insurance, open a bank account, or trade 347 different stocks all at once ...

How the Hedge Fund Magnetar Is Financing the AI Boom

09 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

AI software and the hardware that enables it have been hugely popular investments this year. But there have still been limiting factors on the sector,...

Ethan Kurzweil on Venture Investing in the Post-ZIRP, AI Era

06 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today,...

Nouriel Roubini's Vision for a New Safe Haven Asset

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For years, investors have relied on the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. The idea behind this was simple: bonds tend to go up when stocks ...

Goldman's Hatzius and Kostin on Markets and Macro in 2025

02 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new admin...

Lots More on the Coming 20-Year Storm with Viktor Shvets

29 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The election of Donald Trump, with his promise of more tariffs and a much tighter stance on immigration is a source of major macro uncertainty. To som...

How Oaktree's Head of Sourcing Finds the Next Great Deal

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to credit investing (or really any investing), there's an analytic art in deciding the right price to pay for a security. But often that...

Inside the Blood Sport of Creditor-on-Creditor Violence

25 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the Zirp era of the mid-2010s, credit markets were booming and investors were clamoring for anything that would produce yield. So they were willing...

The Harvard Endowment Is on the Verge of Losing Its Crown

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For years, the Harvard Endowment has easily been the largest endowment of any university. But as of right now, it's at risk of losing its crown to the...

Odd Arne Westad on how China First Joined the Global Capitalist Economy

21 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

How did China become the economic behemoth that it is today? One pivotal moment was, obviously, it's ascension into the WTO. Prior to that, the era of...

How Fraudsters Are Bilking the Government Out of Billions of Dollars

18 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After his victory, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would be leading up a new Department of Government Efficiency in order to...

Beak Capitalism, Part 3: Un-Clucking the System

17 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competiti...

Beak Capitalism, Part 2: The Chickenization of Everything

16 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the bir...

Beak Capitalism, Part 1: Chickflation

15 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, th...

Richard Clarida on This Tricky Moment for the Federal Reserve

14 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncerta...

Introducing: Beak Capitalism, presented by Odd Lots

13 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In this limited series, Odd Lots explains some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of … chicken. Chicken occupies a uni...

Can You Ever Actually De-Risk The Banking System?

11 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last roughly 15 years, we've seen a migration of certain types of risks outside of regulated deposit-taking banks. Private credit has boomed,...

Max Read on how the Internet Got Infested With Garbage

08 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There was a a point in time when Twitter used to be good for breaking news. Social media outlets like Instagram and Facebook were great for keeping up...

Harley Bassman on Trump, the Fed, and the Bond Market

07 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US election is over and Donald Trump has won a second term as president. Stocks have rallied on Trump's win, of course, but some of the more inter...

Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond

05 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd...

Listen Now: US Election Coverage on Bloomberg Podcasts

04 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Be in the know this election with Bloomberg Podcasts. Follow Bloomberg News Now for up-to-the minute election results, all night long. And go deeper w...

Ezra Klein On the Legacy of Bidenomics

04 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Biden administration has overseen a revival of so-called industrial policy in a way that we haven't seen in years. Major efforts are underway to r...

What the Nuclear Power Revival Means for the Price of Uranium

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's something of a uranium cult out there: the investors and traders who believe that nuclear is the future of energy, and therefore this crucial ...

Big Take Asia: The US Pledged to Contain China’s Tech Ambitions. It’s Not Working.

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China is making steady progress in its quest to dominate key industries of the future, despite years of US tariffs, export controls and sanctions.  C...

Years of Restrictions Didn't Slow China's Quest for Tech Dominance

31 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2015, China identified several key industries of the future for which it aimed to compete at the technological frontier. The 'Made in China 2025' p...

Why Home Insurance in Florida Is a Mess

28 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Florida has been struck by two big hurricanes this year, setting off a wave of damage and, of course, new insurance claims. As we all know by now, ins...

Listen Now: The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly

27 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When sports, business and culture collide, there’s often a deal to be made. Join Alex Rodriguez and Bloomberg correspondent Jason Kelly as they get ...

Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Boeing

25 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Shares of Boeing, America's biggest aerospace manufacturer, have plummeted 40% so far this year. The company is facing a string of challenges, includi...

How Banks and Private Credit Became the Best of Frenemies

24 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

By now, everyone knows that private credit is a hot market. What's less known is that banks want in on it too. It's an odd state of affairs given that...

Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed's Big Cut

21 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On September 18, the Federal Reserve kicked off the cutting cycle by reducing overnight rates by 50 basis points. Since then, mortgage rates have gone...

Meb Faber on the Big Bear Market in Diversification and Tactical Allocation

18 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For decades, investors have been told that diversifying is a good thing. You should hold a basket of stocks across different sectors and geographies, ...

Richard Koo and Zichen Wang on What Just Happened in China

17 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In September, Chinese policymakers shocked the markets by unveiling a set of stimulus measures designed to boost the economy and bolster the real esta...

Apollo Explains How Big Tech Is Disrupting Credit Markets

14 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Big tech stocks have had an enormous impact on the stock market, with Magnificent 7 companies like Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia now dominating equity i...

The ROI Rules of AI: Sirion's Legal AI (Sponsored Content)

13 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What if your contracts could be a roadmap to running your business – the first step in managing your relationships with your suppliers and clients? ...

Austan Goolsbee on How This Cycle Turned Out To Be So Different

11 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve basically had one focus: defeating inflation. That's now changed. Keeping inflation at bay is still important, b...

The Ultra-Rich Are Building a Separate World Here on Earth

10 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In recent years, we've seen the emergence of cities whose main industry is that they're a great place to live if you're rich. Dubai would be the ultim...

The Math That Explains How Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds Make Money

07 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Multi-strategy hedge funds are still all the rage on Wall Street, but what does it actually mean to be a pod shop and how are they being set up? On th...

Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel

04 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US is in the midst of a big effort to bring more semiconductor manufacturing onshore. Intel is the biggest US semiconductor manufacturer. There's ...

The Big Tax Hike Coming in Just Over a Year

03 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2017, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which may be better known as the Trump tax cuts. Due to the way fiscal policy works in the United ...

Jigar Shah on the Three Big Things Driving the Nuclear Energy Revival

30 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this month, we got the surprising headline that the shuttered nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island will be restarted. Of course, Three Mile Is...

Lots More on Potentially Massive East Coast Port Strikes

27 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Look out. Supply chains are back in the news. As soon as next week, workers at all of the ports on the US East Coast could go on strike, crippling tra...

This Is How Industrial Policy Can Go Bad

26 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Right now, industrial policy is back in vogue in the US. The administration is making an effort at reviving specific sectors, notably in areas of clea...

Ariel Investments' John Rogers on How You Can Still Win With Value Investing

23 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

These days if you talk to people about the stock market, they might talk to you about the effect of the Fed. Or they'll talk about the Mag 7 and AI ca...

Lots More With Sam Ro on the Booming World of RIAs

20 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Future Proof Festival takes place right on the beach in Huntington Beach, California. Thousands of registered investment advisors from all over th...

The Next Stage of the Credit Cycle with Oaktree’s Poli

19 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, the Fed cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. Lower financing costs should be a relief for companies that need to borrow in the form of b...

Pimco CIO Dan Ivascyn on the Biggest Fed Decision in Years

18 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It’s Fed Day, and while everyone expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates, the key question is by how much? Will it be 25 basis poin...

How Josh Brown Created A Financial Media Empire

16 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

15 years ago was a pivotal moment for financial media. On the one hand, we were in the midst of a huge financial crisis, which shook everything up and...

Security, Bookmarked: Finance (Sponsored Content)

15 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate,...

Lots More With Isabella Weber on Draghi's EU Competitiveness Report

13 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi published a long-awaited report examining ways to make the E...

Adam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese Economy

12 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the big buzzwords over the last year or so has been "overcapacity." There's a constant line of argument that China is unfairly flooding the wor...

US Trade Rep Katherine Tai Describes the New Era of Globalization

09 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now, is on the need to change our trading relationship with China. Former President Dona...

The Booming Crypto Use Case That's Happening Right Now

06 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Pretty much since the moment that cryptocurrencies came into existence, there's been a chorus of skeptics who argue that they solve no real world use ...

How Hedge Funds Discover the Next Superstar Trader

05 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the problems in investing or trading is that — to use a common disclaimer — past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can ha...

The Black Hole of Private Credit That's Swallowing the Economy

02 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that...

Adam Posen on the Dangers of Jerome Powell's 'Rifle Shot' Jackson Hole Speech

30 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The...