Odd Lots

The Hidden History of Eurodollars, Part 1: Cold War Origins

14 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

At more than $10 trillion outstanding, the eurodollar market is one of the biggest forms of shadow banking activity out there. It's also one of the mo...

Why Government Hiring Is So Inefficient

13 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Regardless of your political ideology, it's easy to agree that government should work well; that it should be able to hire talented officials, and bui...

Evolving Money: A Faster, Cheaper Way to Pay (Sponsored Content)

12 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the 1950s, a businessman, looking for a new way to settle his lunch tab, sparked a payments revolution and paved the way for today’s cashless...

Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds

10 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

One of the biggest stories in markets right now is the huge selloff in government bonds. And we're not just talking about the US here. The UK is seein...

This Is How Electricity Rates Are Actually Set

09 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Utilities in the US have a couple big jobs to do. On the one hand, they need to deliver affordable and reliable power to their customers. On the other...

What It Felt Like When Everyone Was Hopeful, Happy, and Rich

06 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

If you look at various surveys, Americans feel grim about the state of the economy. But even outside of the economy itself, you see negative readings ...

This Is How China Builds So Much Nuclear Power

03 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the US right now, there is a lot of talk about a so-called "nuclear revival." But it remains to be seen whether we'll see a meaningful uptick in ac...

The Odd Lots AMA Episode: Tracy and Joe Answer Listener Questions

02 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As is becoming something of an annual tradition here, we recently asked Odd Lots listeners to send in any questions they have about the show to Tracy ...

The 10 Most Interesting Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2024

30 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As 2024 comes to an end, Tracy and Joe once again look back at the year that was in Odd Lots. On this final episode of the year, we revisit 10 of the ...

Odd Lots Talks Beak Capitalism on Money Stuff Talking Chicken

27 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Back in November, we released our series called Beak Capitalism, which took a look at the entire US economy through the lens of chicken. Then we went ...

Jennifer Granholm on What Will Survive of Biden's Energy Legacy

26 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Biden administration made energy and climate a centerpiece of its administration, most notably through the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same ti...

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Explains the 'Hawkish Cut'

23 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points, but simultaneously signaled a slower pace of cuts for next year. The guidance s...

Jim Caron on the Market Selloff and the Fed's Historic Adjustment

20 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But it also raised its inflation outlook for 2025, and sees just ...

Nina Achadjian on What It Takes to Win in VC Right Now

19 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The world of startup investing has undergone massive transformations amid the AI boom, changing capital markets, and an intense degree of competition ...

This Stove Company Wants to Change How the World Uses Energy

16 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the minor culture wars in America has to do with electric stoves. To some, they're more energy efficient and better for air quality. To others,...

Tim Latimer on Solving the Financing Problem for Geothermal

13 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Geothermal is a promising technology to provide clean, low-cost, baseload power to the electricity grid. It works by getting heat from deep in the gro...

Why You Can't Get a One-Click Mortgage Refi

12 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

You can do a lot of things with the click of a button nowadays. You can get insurance, open a bank account, or trade 347 different stocks all at once ...

How the Hedge Fund Magnetar Is Financing the AI Boom

09 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

AI software and the hardware that enables it have been hugely popular investments this year. But there have still been limiting factors on the sector,...

Ethan Kurzweil on Venture Investing in the Post-ZIRP, AI Era

06 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today,...

Nouriel Roubini's Vision for a New Safe Haven Asset

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For years, investors have relied on the classic 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. The idea behind this was simple: bonds tend to go up when stocks ...

Goldman's Hatzius and Kostin on Markets and Macro in 2025

02 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's trite to say that there is a high degree of uncertainty right now, for macro forecasters and investors. It also happens to be true. The new admin...

Lots More on the Coming 20-Year Storm with Viktor Shvets

29 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The election of Donald Trump, with his promise of more tariffs and a much tighter stance on immigration is a source of major macro uncertainty. To som...

How Oaktree's Head of Sourcing Finds the Next Great Deal

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to credit investing (or really any investing), there's an analytic art in deciding the right price to pay for a security. But often that...

Inside the Blood Sport of Creditor-on-Creditor Violence

25 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the Zirp era of the mid-2010s, credit markets were booming and investors were clamoring for anything that would produce yield. So they were willing...

The Harvard Endowment Is on the Verge of Losing Its Crown

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For years, the Harvard Endowment has easily been the largest endowment of any university. But as of right now, it's at risk of losing its crown to the...

Odd Arne Westad on how China First Joined the Global Capitalist Economy

21 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

How did China become the economic behemoth that it is today? One pivotal moment was, obviously, it's ascension into the WTO. Prior to that, the era of...

How Fraudsters Are Bilking the Government Out of Billions of Dollars

18 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After his victory, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would be leading up a new Department of Government Efficiency in order to...

Beak Capitalism, Part 3: Un-Clucking the System

17 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we’re taking a look at market competiti...

Beak Capitalism, Part 2: The Chickenization of Everything

16 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the bir...

Beak Capitalism, Part 1: Chickflation

15 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, th...

Richard Clarida on This Tricky Moment for the Federal Reserve

14 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncerta...

Introducing: Beak Capitalism, presented by Odd Lots

13 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In this limited series, Odd Lots explains some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of … chicken. Chicken occupies a uni...

Can You Ever Actually De-Risk The Banking System?

11 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Over the last roughly 15 years, we've seen a migration of certain types of risks outside of regulated deposit-taking banks. Private credit has boomed,...

Max Read on how the Internet Got Infested With Garbage

08 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There was a a point in time when Twitter used to be good for breaking news. Social media outlets like Instagram and Facebook were great for keeping up...

Harley Bassman on Trump, the Fed, and the Bond Market

07 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US election is over and Donald Trump has won a second term as president. Stocks have rallied on Trump's win, of course, but some of the more inter...

Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond

05 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd...

Listen Now: US Election Coverage on Bloomberg Podcasts

04 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Be in the know this election with Bloomberg Podcasts. Follow Bloomberg News Now for up-to-the minute election results, all night long. And go deeper w...

Ezra Klein On the Legacy of Bidenomics

04 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Biden administration has overseen a revival of so-called industrial policy in a way that we haven't seen in years. Major efforts are underway to r...

What the Nuclear Power Revival Means for the Price of Uranium

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's something of a uranium cult out there: the investors and traders who believe that nuclear is the future of energy, and therefore this crucial ...

Big Take Asia: The US Pledged to Contain China’s Tech Ambitions. It’s Not Working.

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China is making steady progress in its quest to dominate key industries of the future, despite years of US tariffs, export controls and sanctions.  C...

Years of Restrictions Didn't Slow China's Quest for Tech Dominance

31 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2015, China identified several key industries of the future for which it aimed to compete at the technological frontier. The 'Made in China 2025' p...

Why Home Insurance in Florida Is a Mess

28 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Florida has been struck by two big hurricanes this year, setting off a wave of damage and, of course, new insurance claims. As we all know by now, ins...

Listen Now: The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly

27 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When sports, business and culture collide, there’s often a deal to be made. Join Alex Rodriguez and Bloomberg correspondent Jason Kelly as they get ...

Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Boeing

25 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Shares of Boeing, America's biggest aerospace manufacturer, have plummeted 40% so far this year. The company is facing a string of challenges, includi...

How Banks and Private Credit Became the Best of Frenemies

24 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

By now, everyone knows that private credit is a hot market. What's less known is that banks want in on it too. It's an odd state of affairs given that...

Why Mortgage Rates Went Up After the Fed's Big Cut

21 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On September 18, the Federal Reserve kicked off the cutting cycle by reducing overnight rates by 50 basis points. Since then, mortgage rates have gone...

Meb Faber on the Big Bear Market in Diversification and Tactical Allocation

18 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For decades, investors have been told that diversifying is a good thing. You should hold a basket of stocks across different sectors and geographies, ...

Richard Koo and Zichen Wang on What Just Happened in China

17 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In September, Chinese policymakers shocked the markets by unveiling a set of stimulus measures designed to boost the economy and bolster the real esta...

Apollo Explains How Big Tech Is Disrupting Credit Markets

14 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Big tech stocks have had an enormous impact on the stock market, with Magnificent 7 companies like Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia now dominating equity i...

The ROI Rules of AI: Sirion's Legal AI (Sponsored Content)

13 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What if your contracts could be a roadmap to running your business – the first step in managing your relationships with your suppliers and clients? ...

Austan Goolsbee on How This Cycle Turned Out To Be So Different

11 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve basically had one focus: defeating inflation. That's now changed. Keeping inflation at bay is still important, b...

The Ultra-Rich Are Building a Separate World Here on Earth

10 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In recent years, we've seen the emergence of cities whose main industry is that they're a great place to live if you're rich. Dubai would be the ultim...

The Math That Explains How Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds Make Money

07 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Multi-strategy hedge funds are still all the rage on Wall Street, but what does it actually mean to be a pod shop and how are they being set up? On th...

Lots More on the Ongoing Mess That Is Intel

04 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US is in the midst of a big effort to bring more semiconductor manufacturing onshore. Intel is the biggest US semiconductor manufacturer. There's ...

The Big Tax Hike Coming in Just Over a Year

03 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2017, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which may be better known as the Trump tax cuts. Due to the way fiscal policy works in the United ...

Jigar Shah on the Three Big Things Driving the Nuclear Energy Revival

30 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Earlier this month, we got the surprising headline that the shuttered nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island will be restarted. Of course, Three Mile Is...

Lots More on Potentially Massive East Coast Port Strikes

27 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Look out. Supply chains are back in the news. As soon as next week, workers at all of the ports on the US East Coast could go on strike, crippling tra...

This Is How Industrial Policy Can Go Bad

26 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Right now, industrial policy is back in vogue in the US. The administration is making an effort at reviving specific sectors, notably in areas of clea...

Ariel Investments' John Rogers on How You Can Still Win With Value Investing

23 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

These days if you talk to people about the stock market, they might talk to you about the effect of the Fed. Or they'll talk about the Mag 7 and AI ca...

Lots More With Sam Ro on the Booming World of RIAs

20 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Future Proof Festival takes place right on the beach in Huntington Beach, California. Thousands of registered investment advisors from all over th...

The Next Stage of the Credit Cycle with Oaktree’s Poli

19 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, the Fed cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. Lower financing costs should be a relief for companies that need to borrow in the form of b...

Pimco CIO Dan Ivascyn on the Biggest Fed Decision in Years

18 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It’s Fed Day, and while everyone expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates, the key question is by how much? Will it be 25 basis poin...

How Josh Brown Created A Financial Media Empire

16 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

15 years ago was a pivotal moment for financial media. On the one hand, we were in the midst of a huge financial crisis, which shook everything up and...

Security, Bookmarked: Finance (Sponsored Content)

15 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate,...

Lots More With Isabella Weber on Draghi's EU Competitiveness Report

13 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi published a long-awaited report examining ways to make the E...

Adam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese Economy

12 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the big buzzwords over the last year or so has been "overcapacity." There's a constant line of argument that China is unfairly flooding the wor...

US Trade Rep Katherine Tai Describes the New Era of Globalization

09 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now, is on the need to change our trading relationship with China. Former President Dona...

The Booming Crypto Use Case That's Happening Right Now

06 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Pretty much since the moment that cryptocurrencies came into existence, there's been a chorus of skeptics who argue that they solve no real world use ...

How Hedge Funds Discover the Next Superstar Trader

05 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the problems in investing or trading is that — to use a common disclaimer — past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can ha...

The Black Hole of Private Credit That's Swallowing the Economy

02 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that...

Adam Posen on the Dangers of Jerome Powell's 'Rifle Shot' Jackson Hole Speech

30 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The...

Hyun Song Shin on How Big the Yen Carry Trade Really Is

29 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Remember August 5th? That was the day that markets around the world plunged in historic fashion and everyone became an overnight expert on the yen car...

A New Way for the Fed to Fight a Market Crisis

28 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When the Treasury market broke in March 2020, the Federal Reserve intervened in extraordinary fashion. It purchased more than $1 trillion worth of Tre...

This Is What The Rate Cut Cycle Could Look Like

27 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

At Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the rate cut cycle is likely to start in September. But of course that just opens...

What It’s Like to Be a Fed President at Jackson Hole

26 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This year’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming marked a big change for US monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tele...

Lots More on What We Just Learned at Jackson Hole

23 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Every year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It’s a chance for central bankers and othe...

The Hottest Way for Banks to Get Risk Off Their Balance Sheets

22 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Synthetic risk transfers, in which banks purchase insurance-like protection on some of their loans, is a growing market on Wall Street, with billions ...

Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting

19 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we'...

Lots More With Claudia Sahm on What the Sahm Rule Is Saying Now

16 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been tre...

How the White House Thinks About Economic Security

15 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The past few years have thrown up a number of potential weaknesses in the American economy. There've been disruptions to supply chains stemming from t...

How the US Treasury Will Fund the Next $20 Trillion in Debt

12 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to financing the US government's borrowing needs, the Treasury Department has some discretion in how it's done. It can sell 30-year Trea...

How a Traditional Toymaker Is Going Big on Digital Games

09 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Hasbro has been making toys for decades, including many classic favorites like G.I. Joe and My Little Pony. But in recent years, it's also been going ...

Goldman Sachs CIO on How the Bank Is Actually Using AI

08 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There's a lot of hype around generative AI and many people have interfaced with ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini at this point. It's fun to ask these large ...

Lots More on Solving the Mystery of the Big Market Selloff

06 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The S&P 500 has plunged more than 5% over the past couple of trading days. The Nasdaq 100 is down 7%. The Nikkei fell an astonishing 13% on Monday...

Matt King on the Hidden Forces Driving the Market Selloff

05 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Nasdaq is now in correction territory and the S&P 500 is down more than 2% so far this month. Analysts are blaming any number of things for th...

Lots More: Did the Fed Just Make a Policy Mistake?

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged while suggesting that it could cut as soon as September. But there's an ongoing ...

Two Veteran Chip Builders Have a Plan to Take On Nvidia

01 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When it comes to chips for artificial intelligence, obviously the name that automatically comes to mind is Nvidia. The company is making a fortune sel...

Zyns, Vapes and the Very Weird Market for New Nicotine Products

29 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Vapes like Elf bars seem to be everywhere now. Meanwhile, Zyn nicotine pouches have become a huge seller for Philip Morris and are in such demand that...

A Top Miami Broker on the Booming Market for Ultra-Luxury Homes

26 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We've all seen headlines about the multi-million dollar properties being sold in Miami. Right now, there's a $135 million mansion in Coconut Grove lis...

How the Hottest Hedge Funds on Wall Street Really Manage Risk

25 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops," have become the hottest ticket on Wall Street. The business model is supposed to allow hedge fu...

The US and China Are in an All Out Race For AI Domination

22 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There are several sources of tension right now between the US and China. Pure trade anxiety is a big one, with the US having imposed tariffs on Chines...

Lots More on JD Vance and the Future of the US Dollar

19 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

When people talk about the special role that the US dollar plays in the global economy, that's often characterized as a privilege for the United State...

A Guggenheim Executive's Radical Plan to Build Millions of New Homes

18 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

According to numerous estimates, the US is massively short of housing. Zillow, for instance, says America needs to build 4.5 million new homes to clim...

Stephen Roach Warns of Disaster From Our 'Sinophobic' China Policy

15 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now is taking a tough line on China. We saw President Trump put tariffs on Chinese goods...

James van Geelen on Thematic Investing Right Now

12 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, scored big when he made his weight loss drug-related investments last year. He was also early into arti...

Joseph Stiglitz on How to Build Shock-Proof Supply Chains

11 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Joseph Stiglitz is a Nobel Prize-winning economist known for his groundbreaking work on information gaps and risk-taking in markets. But he's recently...

MMT's Godfather Says the US Government Is Spending Like a Drunken Sailor

08 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Modern Monetary Theory has gained prominence over the last several years by offering an alternative view on the constraints to fiscal policy. The basi...

Lots More With Stinson Dean on Crashing Lumber Prices

05 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lumber prices have tumbled dramatically in recent weeks, with benchmark futures falling about 20% in the past four months alone. What's more, this is ...

How Brazil Gave Birth to One of the World's Greatest Jet Makers

04 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There aren't many advanced manufacturing success stories in Latin America. And globally, there aren't many companies that can build commercial planes ...

How Brad Jacobs Will Invest $4.5 Billion to Reshape Building Supplies

02 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Brad Jacobs has made a career of starting, consolidating, and growing whole industries. He did a trucking company. He did a warehouse company. He has ...