NAB Morning Call

Independence Day: Recession Resurgence

03 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 4th July 2022Recessions fears continue to rise, pushing bond yields lower. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains, the ISM manufacturing report in ...

And back to recession fears

30 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 1st July 2022Yields are lower in the US and Europe as recession fears grow, prompted by weaker than expected personal spending in the US, with ...

Understanding how little we understand

29 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 30th June 2022Markets are confused as to where the global economy is heading. If investors were looking to the ECB Forum in Sintra for clarif...

Less US confidence, tough talking ECB

28 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 29th June 2022US equities switched direction overnight. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was a swift response to a weaker than expected consume...

Heading for a choppy end to Q2

27 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 28th June 2022The volatility of the past few months means there is likely to be a greater need for rebalancing at the end of the quarter this ...

Is bad news good news these days?

26 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 27th June 2022These are strange times. Market sentiment improved at the end of last week because of weaker consumer sentiment and a downward re...

Unconditional commitment, come what may

23 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 24th June 2022There have been big movements in bond yields overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s been a reaction to weak PMI data from...

Markets split as Powell admits recession is possible

22 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 23rd June 2022You take whatever you want from a senate hearing, so there have been mixed reviews of Jerome Powell’s performance in front of...

Brighter days ahead

21 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 22nd June 2022We’ve just had the longest night of the year in Australia but the markets are focused on the light at the end of the tunnel!...

Is the RBA preparing to go harder?

20 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 21st June 2022RBA Governor Philip Lowe is talking at an American Chamber of Commerce event this morning in Sydney. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attri...

Turning up the rhetoric

19 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 20th June 2022It’s almost like there’s a race to turn up the rhetoric between central bank speakers, signalling to markets that rates will ...

Markets go cuckoo as the Swiss clock a half percent hike

16 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 17th June 2022The positive reaction to yesterday’s FOMC market was short lived, with a much softer US dollar this morning and big falls in eq...

A big step to the soft landing few believe will happen

15 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 16th June 2022The FOMC announced a 75-basis point rise in interest rates in the US, with rates rising to 3.4 percent by the end of the year. ...

The day before the dots

14 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 15th June 2022The FOMC meeting tomorrow morning (Australian time) has been the focus of intense speculation this week, with the surprise inf...

Markets Panic after US inflation surprise

13 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 14th June 2022There have been massive moves in financial markets since the release of the US inflation data on Friday. The US dollar is around...

ECB set to turn up the dial

09 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 10th June 2022The ECB indicated overnight that they will lift rates at their July meeting, and if there’s no sign of a fall in inflation then...

Oil jumps, shares fall, inflation forecasts worsen

08 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 9th June 2022There’s not much optimism in the air this morning. The OECD almost doubled their inflation expectations and slashed their grow...

RBA, far from business as usual

07 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 8th June 2022It was only a month ago that RBA governor Lowe was suggesting a 25 basis point hike was business as usual, with the bank wantin...

Rates jump, Boris’ near miss, RBA today

06 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 7th June 2022There’s been lots of action on the markets overnight, with rates pushing higher and, for most of the session, equities on the r...

Get ready for RBA, ECB and US CPI

05 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 6th June 2022It might be a quiet start to a busy week, with the RBA and ECB meeting, and the US releases its CPI numbers at the end of the week...

More oil, weaker jobs growth. Equities live on hope.

02 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 3rdJune 2022Today saw another session demonstrating the violent swings across all asset classes. Equities, that were well down yesterday, are w...

Rates boosted as strong data support aggressive Fed hikes

01 Jun 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 2nd June 2022If investors were looking for signs of weakness in the US economy, in the hope that it might moderate the expectations for a rap...

EU sanctions, more in the pipeline?

31 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 1st June 2022The EU has agreed to an immediate ban on oil exported by sea from Russia, with a further ban on EU and UK insurance of Russian ...

German inflation concerns, but equity markets refuse to freak out

30 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 31st May 2022There isn’t much in the way of good news today, but that doesn’t seem to matter as far as equity markets are concerned. Germa...

A piggy bank backed recovery

29 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 30th May 2022Markets seem to be optimistic that the inflation wave can be ridden without us all crashing down on a rocky outcrop somewhere. So,...

Equities and bonds markets divided

26 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 27th May 2022US equities rose sharply again today as more retailers gave positive outlooks, despite the earlier surprise form Walmart and Targe...

Markets accept rate hikes if they tame inflation

25 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 26th May 2022The increasing belief amongst central bankers – particularly in New Zealand and the US – is that faster rate hikes will have...

Markets Snap Out of It

24 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 25th May 2022Yesterday’s upbeat sentiment was very short-lived, with a sharp fall in equities and bond yields today. A statement from Snap...

Hope springs eternal, well, for today anyway

23 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 24th May 2022A bounce back in equities and a better-than-expected IFO read from Germany. For today at least we’re seeing the return of some ...

New Australian government, same global concerns

22 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 23rd May 2022Will a new government have any market impact? NAB’s Skye Masters has been looking at how markets behaved, relatively speaking, i...

Who can slow down the slowdown?

19 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 20th May 2022There was no bounce in equities today after the big falls we saw yesterday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its growing concerns about ...

Equities bomb as investors are reminded of inflation

18 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 19th May 2022We’ve seen big falls in US shares as major retailers issue profit warnings, based on inflation and supply chain worries. Inves...

China reopening, Americans shopping, Brits working

17 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 18th May 2022Equity markets have rallied today, buoyed by positive retail numbers for the US. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the sentiment ...

Markets tossed back and forth in a sea of uncertainty

16 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 17th May 2022There’s been a fair bit of volatility in equity and bond markets overnight. Stocks are generally down after swings back and for...

One day when fears eased, for a bit

15 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 16th May 2022There was a slight reversal in sentiment on Friday, with the US dollar losing ground, equities climbing and bond yields rising. NA...

A world of worry

12 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 13th May 2022US equities continue to take a hit as inflation concerns continue and two of the biggest contributors – the war and China lockdo...

US inflation numbers hit shares, bond markets more restrained

11 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 12th May 2022US inflation numbers didn’t fall as much as hoped, in fact the core number is up, making the job for the Fed that little but h...

A momentary lapse of reason

10 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 11th May 2022For a while today US shares were pushing higher, with tech stocks leading the way. Then as market close neared, prices started ...

Stocks dive over fears of the perfect storm

09 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 10th May 2022Markets are clearly concerned that there will be no soft-landing. There’s the big fear that rate rises won’t cut demand enoug...

Are markets running scared?

08 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 9th May 2022Equity markets continued their falls on Friday, driven by concerns that the FOMC will let the economy slip into recession if it’s...

Market whiplash as sentiment takes a hit

05 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 6th May 2022Yesterday, as Jerome Powell gave the post-FOMC press conference, the US dollar strengthened, equities shot up and front-end bond yi...

Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head

04 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 5th May 2022The FOMC announced a 50 basis point rate rise for the US. As NAB’s Skye Masters notes in today’s podcast, the market response...

RBA loses a little patience

03 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 4th May 2022On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through the RBA’s higher-than-expected rate hike yesterday. Taylor Nugent adds...

Breaking the Three Percent Barrier

02 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 3rd May 2022US 10-year Treasury yields snuck over three percent overnight, albeit briefly. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says this could be the psyc...

The week central banks get serious

01 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 2nd May 2022Last week finished with stocks well down in the US, particularly amongst high-growth tech-stocks. The reason, growing inflation con...

A fall in US GDP doesn’t signify recession, yet

28 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 29th April 2022The US delivered a sharp fall in GDP in the first quarter. It wasn’t expected and could naturally spark fears that recession c...

RBA will hike next week

27 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 28th April 2022Australian inflation rose more than expected yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun said it didn’t come as a complete surprise. NA...

Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria

26 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 27th April 2022Big market moves today, with US shares plummeting, bond yields also falling, and commodity prices rising sharply. European ga...

Front end Fed and China’s quest for the impossible

25 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 26th April 2022There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says equity investors belatedly “g...

European bonds rise sharply as some ECB members talk up rate schedule

21 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 22nd April 2022Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish...

A Temporary Change in Direction

20 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 21st April 2022Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it? NAB’s ...

Bond yields and equities both rise sharply. Please explain.

19 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 20th April 2022It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bind yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which on...

A whiff of moderation as Fed hurtles to 50 point hike

18 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 19th April 2022There’s a fundamental difference in the approach of the ECB and the Fed, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains on today’s po...

Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down

13 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 14th April 2022Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great de...

A very slight glimmer of hope on inflation

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 13th April 2022US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says investors ...

Stocks hit as yields rise higher still

11 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 12th April 2022US bond yields continue to career higher. ‘IT was another blistering night’ says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, with 10-year Tr...

Rates push ever higher as food prices soar

10 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 11th April 2022Although there’s clearly volatility in markets, NAB’s Ray Attrill says the common thread is that yields are still rising. Ev...

Consumers still spending despite all the hike talk

07 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 8th April 2022As bond yields continue to rise, particularly in the US, it seems there’s not much impact from all the hike talk on consumer sp...

Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later

06 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 7th April 2022Bond markets have reacted sharply and briefly to the FOMC minutes this morning, which suggested the Fed might start slashing it...

No patience left at RBA

05 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 6th April 2022The RBA has lost its patience and wants to move fast, but how fast and how far? On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says...

Crimes, curves and patience

04 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 5th April 2022The hope of peace in Ukraine is slipping away as more evidence of war crimes emerges, suggesting diplomacy could take some time....

Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face

03 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 4th April 2022Non-farm payrolls gave the hawks at the Fed the ammunition they wanted, and bond yields have responded. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril sa...

Biden dips into reserves, Putin demands Roubles from today

31 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 1st April 2022There’s a hefty emphasis on oil and gas this morning. Putin is demanding payment in Roubles from today, but there seems to be s...

Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars

30 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 31st March 2022There was hope in market pricing earlier in the week that some sort of resolution over Ukraine could be sought soon. But those...

Europe boosted by peace hopes

29 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 30th March 2022Markets have responded perhaps a little too favourably to peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey overnight. ...

The divided story of rate expectations

28 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 29th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s continued vo...

Ditching bonds like they are going out of fashion

27 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 28th March 2022The sell-off of bonds continues, with a further spike in yields at the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s be...

American markets doing well because they are not Europe

24 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 25th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It's a very mixed and c...

Getting ready to Ruble

23 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 24th March 2022Bond yields have come back a fair bit today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s just a recalibration after the massive hikes we’...

Markets support the Fed’s balancing act

22 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 23rd March 2022Just three weeks into March and US two-year bond yields are up 74 basis points, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s M...

Powell talking faster than fast

21 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd March 2022Bond yields have moved sharply higher as markets expect the Fed to move faster on rate rises and, potentially, drawdowns on the...

Peace hopes and understanding

20 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st March 2022Nobody really knows how the war in Ukraine will play out, but we kick off the week with reports from Turkey that an understandin...

BoE far more cautious than the Fed

17 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th March 2022After a very hawkish Fed yesterday, the Bank of England has presented a much more guarded approach for the rest of the year, whi...

A far from transitory Fed

16 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th March 2022The Fed has met, they’ve lifted rates in the US, and given a hawkish outlook for rate increases this year and next, with a t...

China hit by COVID and Russian relationship

15 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Chinese equities hav...

Will China pick a side?

14 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th March 2022China and the US have been meeting, with the hope that talks can resolve the war in Ukraine. But China is showing little sign o...

Getting close to the edge

13 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 14th March 2022Fighting got very close to the Polish border over the weekend, with Russian attacks on a training base. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril s...

ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales

10 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The war isn’t going t...

Risk on, but war still on too

09 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 10th March 2021Looking at the markets this morning you might be mistaken for thinking Vladmir Putin had resigned, but sadly not. The war is s...

A glimmer of hope

08 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 9th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets have been enc...

Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety

07 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 8th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Day 12 of the war in th...

Oil keeps increasing, Aussie rises above the confusion

06 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 7th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9For a while over the wee...

Powell, Putin and Prices

03 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday4th March 2022The Aussie dollar was one of the winners today, even as the US dollar lurches to highs not seen since the early days of pandemic. ...

Hiking away from the fighting

02 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 3rd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It almost seemed like ...

Ukraine war ratchets up risk sentiment

01 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 2nd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9'What a night for mar...

Moderate contagion, so far

28 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 1st March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The sanctions against R...

A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis

27 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 28th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There will be a shif...

Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s Squalid Venture

24 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 25th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Russian Presiden...

Don’t Panic!

23 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 24th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Hitchhikers Gu...

Biden's sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’

22 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 23rd February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The news over Ukr...

Putin supports Donbass powder keg

21 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd February 2022Will Putin’s declared support for separatists in the Donbass region be the false flag event the West has been concerned ab...

More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty

20 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s more uncer...

Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words

17 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There are mixed sign...

Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight

16 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There are no signs...

Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)

15 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s a bit m...

Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’

14 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The rhetoric is sti...

War talk rocks markets, all eyes on the East

13 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 14th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There was a swift re...

High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?

10 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets reacted swif...

Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers

09 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 10th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Bond yields have f...

China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession?

08 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 9th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9In the absence of ...