NAB Morning Call

Stocks dive over fears of the perfect storm

09 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 10th May 2022Markets are clearly concerned that there will be no soft-landing. There’s the big fear that rate rises won’t cut demand enoug...

Are markets running scared?

08 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 9th May 2022Equity markets continued their falls on Friday, driven by concerns that the FOMC will let the economy slip into recession if it’s...

Market whiplash as sentiment takes a hit

05 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 6th May 2022Yesterday, as Jerome Powell gave the post-FOMC press conference, the US dollar strengthened, equities shot up and front-end bond yi...

Powell knocks mega-rise prospects on the head

04 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 5th May 2022The FOMC announced a 50 basis point rate rise for the US. As NAB’s Skye Masters notes in today’s podcast, the market response...

RBA loses a little patience

03 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 4th May 2022On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through the RBA’s higher-than-expected rate hike yesterday. Taylor Nugent adds...

Breaking the Three Percent Barrier

02 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 3rd May 2022US 10-year Treasury yields snuck over three percent overnight, albeit briefly. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says this could be the psyc...

The week central banks get serious

01 May 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 2nd May 2022Last week finished with stocks well down in the US, particularly amongst high-growth tech-stocks. The reason, growing inflation con...

A fall in US GDP doesn’t signify recession, yet

28 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 29th April 2022The US delivered a sharp fall in GDP in the first quarter. It wasn’t expected and could naturally spark fears that recession c...

RBA will hike next week

27 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 28th April 2022Australian inflation rose more than expected yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun said it didn’t come as a complete surprise. NA...

Russia turns off gas for Poland and Bulgaria

26 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 27th April 2022Big market moves today, with US shares plummeting, bond yields also falling, and commodity prices rising sharply. European ga...

Front end Fed and China’s quest for the impossible

25 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 26th April 2022There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says equity investors belatedly “g...

European bonds rise sharply as some ECB members talk up rate schedule

21 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 22nd April 2022Markets are a little easier to understand today. Bond yields are back on the rise, given inflation expectations and more hawkish...

A Temporary Change in Direction

20 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 21st April 2022Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it? NAB’s ...

Bond yields and equities both rise sharply. Please explain.

19 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 20th April 2022It’s not something that will continue for long, but US bind yields have risen sharply today, and so have equities. Which on...

A whiff of moderation as Fed hurtles to 50 point hike

18 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 19th April 2022There’s a fundamental difference in the approach of the ECB and the Fed, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains on today’s po...

Big hikes, more inflation, but bonds settle down

13 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 14th April 2022Despite 50 basis point hikes by the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ over the last 24 hours, bond yields haven’t moved a great de...

A very slight glimmer of hope on inflation

12 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 13th April 2022US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says investors ...

Stocks hit as yields rise higher still

11 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 12th April 2022US bond yields continue to career higher. ‘IT was another blistering night’ says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, with 10-year Tr...

Rates push ever higher as food prices soar

10 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 11th April 2022Although there’s clearly volatility in markets, NAB’s Ray Attrill says the common thread is that yields are still rising. Ev...

Consumers still spending despite all the hike talk

07 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 8th April 2022As bond yields continue to rise, particularly in the US, it seems there’s not much impact from all the hike talk on consumer sp...

Fed to slash balance sheet sooner rather than later

06 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 7th April 2022Bond markets have reacted sharply and briefly to the FOMC minutes this morning, which suggested the Fed might start slashing it...

No patience left at RBA

05 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 6th April 2022The RBA has lost its patience and wants to move fast, but how fast and how far? On today’s podcast NAB’s Ivan Colhoun says...

Crimes, curves and patience

04 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 5th April 2022The hope of peace in Ukraine is slipping away as more evidence of war crimes emerges, suggesting diplomacy could take some time....

Fed ready for a big move, ECB staring inflation in the face

03 Apr 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 4th April 2022Non-farm payrolls gave the hawks at the Fed the ammunition they wanted, and bond yields have responded. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril sa...

Biden dips into reserves, Putin demands Roubles from today

31 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 1st April 2022There’s a hefty emphasis on oil and gas this morning. Putin is demanding payment in Roubles from today, but there seems to be s...

Peace hopes fade, European inflation soars

30 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 31st March 2022There was hope in market pricing earlier in the week that some sort of resolution over Ukraine could be sought soon. But those...

Europe boosted by peace hopes

29 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 30th March 2022Markets have responded perhaps a little too favourably to peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey overnight. ...

The divided story of rate expectations

28 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 29th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s continued vo...

Ditching bonds like they are going out of fashion

27 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 28th March 2022The sell-off of bonds continues, with a further spike in yields at the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s be...

American markets doing well because they are not Europe

24 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 25th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It's a very mixed and c...

Getting ready to Ruble

23 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 24th March 2022Bond yields have come back a fair bit today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s just a recalibration after the massive hikes we’...

Markets support the Fed’s balancing act

22 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 23rd March 2022Just three weeks into March and US two-year bond yields are up 74 basis points, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on today’s M...

Powell talking faster than fast

21 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd March 2022Bond yields have moved sharply higher as markets expect the Fed to move faster on rate rises and, potentially, drawdowns on the...

Peace hopes and understanding

20 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st March 2022Nobody really knows how the war in Ukraine will play out, but we kick off the week with reports from Turkey that an understandin...

BoE far more cautious than the Fed

17 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th March 2022After a very hawkish Fed yesterday, the Bank of England has presented a much more guarded approach for the rest of the year, whi...

A far from transitory Fed

16 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th March 2022The Fed has met, they’ve lifted rates in the US, and given a hawkish outlook for rate increases this year and next, with a t...

China hit by COVID and Russian relationship

15 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Chinese equities hav...

Will China pick a side?

14 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th March 2022China and the US have been meeting, with the hope that talks can resolve the war in Ukraine. But China is showing little sign o...

Getting close to the edge

13 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 14th March 2022Fighting got very close to the Polish border over the weekend, with Russian attacks on a training base. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril s...

ECB taper talk, while Lavrov tells-tales

10 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The war isn’t going t...

Risk on, but war still on too

09 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 10th March 2021Looking at the markets this morning you might be mistaken for thinking Vladmir Putin had resigned, but sadly not. The war is s...

A glimmer of hope

08 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 9th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets have been enc...

Day 12 brought more volatility, the search for safety

07 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 8th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Day 12 of the war in th...

Oil keeps increasing, Aussie rises above the confusion

06 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 7th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9For a while over the wee...

Powell, Putin and Prices

03 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday4th March 2022The Aussie dollar was one of the winners today, even as the US dollar lurches to highs not seen since the early days of pandemic. ...

Hiking away from the fighting

02 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 3rd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It almost seemed like ...

Ukraine war ratchets up risk sentiment

01 Mar 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 2nd March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9'What a night for mar...

Moderate contagion, so far

28 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 1st March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The sanctions against R...

A swift response to the Ukrainian crisis

27 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 28th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There will be a shif...

Putting the Squeeze on Putin’s Squalid Venture

24 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 25th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Russian Presiden...

Don’t Panic!

23 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 24th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The Hitchhikers Gu...

Biden's sanctions first step against Putin’s ‘invasion’

22 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 23rd February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The news over Ukr...

Putin supports Donbass powder keg

21 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd February 2022Will Putin’s declared support for separatists in the Donbass region be the false flag event the West has been concerned ab...

More war talk adds to a storm of uncertainty

20 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s more uncer...

Ball of confusion as Biden and Putin fight war of words

17 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There are mixed sign...

Oil rising whilst Putin sits tight

16 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There are no signs...

Risk-on as Putin backs-off (a bit)

15 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s a bit m...

Putin on the brink, Fed ‘out of sync’

14 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The rhetoric is sti...

War talk rocks markets, all eyes on the East

13 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 14th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There was a swift re...

High stakes, higher prices, bigger hikes?

10 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Markets reacted swif...

Bond sell-off on hold ahead of US inflation numbers

09 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 10th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Bond yields have f...

China pushes back green agenda, UK heading for recession?

08 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 9th February 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9In the absence of ...

Markets still guessing the path of inflation

07 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9In the absence of any big statistical release...

US kept working through Omicron peak

06 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 7th February 2021Friday’s non-farm payrolls data showed how more people returned to work in the US whilst Omicron saw the highest wave of COV...

Tight squeeze or a gentle touch?

03 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 4th February 2022The Bank of England is certainly all out to stop any risk of wages pushing inflation out of control. The decision was one vote...

A tale of two central banks

02 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 2rd February 2022You could say its the best of times and the worst of times, with a rampant jobs recovery tempered by high inflation. Certain...

Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?

01 Feb 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 2nd February 2022The RBA is still reticent to signal a rate rise this year, even as they lift their inflation forecasts. NAB’s Ivan Colhou...

RBA to join the rate-rise race?

31 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 1st February 2022It seems more likely than not that the RBA will announce an end to QEW today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says core timed mean i...

Aussie dollar loses break point

30 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 31st January 2021Whilst it was quite a night for Rafael Nadal, Friday had a less positive ending for the Aussie dollar, falling below 70 US cen...

The aftermath of the Fed

27 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 28th January 2022There has been quite a turnaround after the sharp falls in share prices and the rise in bond yields that we saw kicking off du...

Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy

26 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 27th January 2022The FOMC has met and reaffirmed that rates will rise from March. NAB’s David de Garis says it was exactly what the markets...

Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off

24 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 25th January 2022Markets have been gearing up for the FOMC meeting this week, but for a while at least tensions over Ukraine seem to have driv...

Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week

23 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 24th January 2022On today's podcast:Curiously bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed wil...

Aussie jobs flourish and US equities bounce

20 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 21st January 2022Australia’s job numbers were well above expectations yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks about what this means for the RBA...

Inflation (almost) everywhere

19 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 20th January 2021The sell-off of US bonds has halted, temporarily, but it continues in Europe, particularly in the UK where high inflation nu...

Markets swallow the post-Omicron outlook pill

18 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 19th January 2021US bond yields are now at their highest levels for two years, with equities now joining the sell-off, particularly for tech...

China bucks the tightening trend

17 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 18th January 2022Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten for faster central bank tightening. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discuss...

Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts

16 Jan 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 17th January 2022The Fed kicks of its schedule of FOMC meetings next week. We know tackling inflation will be front and centre, but as NAB’s ...

Looking ahead to a better 2022

21 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 22nd December 2021There was a lot more positive sentiment in the markets overnight. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s all down to Omicron n...

Europe’s cold cold Christmas

20 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 21st December 2021Energy markets are dominating market moves in the run up to Christmas. Oil prices have fallen significantly on fears that tr...

A very cautious Christmas

19 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 20th December 2021Markets are very cautious ahead of the Christmas break, with concerns about the impact of the Omicron strain. The Netherlands...

BoE lifts rates despite everything

16 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 17th December 2021A rate rise by the Bank of England has surprised many, particularly in an environment of record COVID infections, and a hospi...

Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise

15 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 16th December 2021The Fed, not surprisingly, are tapering faster as the race is on to lift rates next year. NAB’s David de Garis says the Q...

It’s all about dots and jabs

14 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 15th December 2021Markets are still pulled in two directions. First there’s the continued uncertainty of the new COVID variant, which migh...

A little more caution on a lot less news

13 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 14th December 2021There’s a little more caution this morning, with equities down, driven by banks, travel and energy, with stay at home stoc...

UK empties the glass, but markets still half full

12 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 13th December 2021Markets were trading last week on the basis that the Omicron variant was not as lethal as the Delta strain, even though infec...

Transmission and inflation - the two concerns

09 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 10th December 2021Things were definitely a bit quieter overnight, with markets stepping back a little as they wait to figure out just what impa...

Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces

08 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 9th December 2021Even though equity markets have slowed, bond markets are still reflecting positive sentiment around coping with the Omicron ...

Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope

07 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 8th December 2021There’s a lot of positive sentiment around this morning. Equities are rising sharply in the US and Europe, oil is up and ...

China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back

06 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 7th December 2021US equites are roaring back, so is oil, with bond yields rising again. This newfound optimism has been driven by policy easin...

Too tight too quickly?

05 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 6th December 2021Markets were far more cautious on Friday. In part there are still concerns about the new Omicron strain, although circumstanti...

There’s a certain uncertainty

02 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 3rd December 2021Markets have displayed much mor epositive sentiment in the last 24 hours, but its not lasting. Gains in US equities have falle...

WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets

01 Dec 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 2nd December 2021Markets were choppy again overnight, but there is renewed hope with circumstantial evidence that the Omicron variant might b...

Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell?

30 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 1st December 2021You might have expected that Jerome Powell would use the uncertainty of the new COVID strain to downplay the need to adjust...

The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty

29 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 30th November 2021On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Ray Attrill reminds us that the CSIRO’s Dr Rob Grenfell predicted, back in the middle of...

Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?

28 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 29th November 2021There was a very strong market response to the news of the Omicron virus strain on Friday. Equities were hit hard, currencies...

Talking turkey on central bank thinking

25 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 26th November 2021As America gobbles up Turkeys NAB’s Gavi Friend talks through the latest positioning on tightening by central banks. The FO...

Is the US getting too hot to handle?

24 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 25th November 2021There were many more positive signs for the US economy overnight, with initial jobless claims at an all-time low. The US do...

Happy tales from Euroland

23 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 24th November 2021There was a surprise for those expecting the PMI numbers on Tuesday to confirm the widening gap between US and European ec...

US dollar rises as Powell stays put.

22 Nov 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 23rd November 2021The US dollar and bond yields rose on the news that Jerome Powell is to keep the top job at the Fed for another term, with L...