NAB Morning Call
Episodes
A speedy taper and European tantrums
21 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 22nd November 2021The divide between the US and Europe became more pronounced at the end of last week, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains 0n to...
US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues
18 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 19th November 2021US equities have bounced back a little today, but, as NAB’s Gavi Friend describes, it’s been a session without significan...
Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
17 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 18th November 2021Australian wage growth is in line with expectations, but where to from here? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ivan Colhoun if there...
Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK
16 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 17th November 2021It’s been a positive session overnight, with US retail sales rising and US jobs bouncing back. NAB’s Tapas Strickland ...
Europe’s caution, China’s hope
15 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 16th November 2021The Euro has lost ground this morning, with concerns over COVID, following lockdowns in Holland and Austria, and rising case...
US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
14 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 15th November 2021Hot on the heels of the surprising increase in inflation in the US earlier last week, Friday saw an unexpected fall in consum...
Have a little faith
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 12th November 2021Markets have been a little more positive over the last 24 hours, with the NASDAQ back on the rise, although a rising US dolla...
Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
10 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 11th November 2021The inflation numbers from the US have been eye popping. That’s the description by the Fed’s Mary Daly as US CPI hits 6...
Markets out of steam on inflation day
09 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 10th November 2021There’s been a move away from risk assets. It could just be equity markets running out of steam after a particularly str...
Taking a breather
08 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 9th November 2021You’d think markets would be bathed in positivity, particularly in the US, with a string of good news, including infrastruc...
Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion
07 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 8th November 2021You might expect a little more optimism in the markets given Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls data in the US, Pfizer’s ne...
Bank of England Backs Down
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 5th November 2021There has been a sharp response in bond yields and currency markets to the Bank of England’s decision not to lift interest r...
Tighter but taking time
03 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 4th November 2021There weren’t any surprises in from the FOMC this morning. The Fed will cut asset purchases by $15 billion this month, wit...
Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation
02 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 3rd November 2021Central banks are still grappling with what to do about inflation. The RBA is reluctant to talk about interest rate hikes a...
RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
01 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 2nd November 2021For once we are going into an RBA meeting unsure of what the outcome will be. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we have as much chance...
The winds of change in central bank policy
31 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 1st November 2021There were more big moves in Australian bond yields on Friday as the RBA failed to buy up the April 2024 bonds that were the f...
Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again.
28 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 29th October 2021Three year bond yields rose well above the RBA’s target of 0.1 percent yesterday, but the central bank didn’t buy any up a...
Going bond crazy
27 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 28th October 2021There have been sharp movements in bond yields, with front end yields rising and falls at the back end. NAB’s Gavin Friend...
Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
26 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 27th October 2021Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers took to Twitter yesterday to challenge Janet Yellen over inflation policy, sugge...
Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
25 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 26th October 2021The markets continue to be dominated by rising inflation concerns, including the price of oil. WTI got over $85 today, but ha...
Powell wants time to heal
24 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 25th October 2021Comments from Jerome Powell added to the volatility in bond markets on Friday. The chair of the Fed reinforced that it was tim...
Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
21 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A sharp fall in commodity prices hasn’t dampening inflation expectations, and with it the assumption that central banks will bring interest rates fo...
The inflation debate heats up
20 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 21st October 2021Equities are rising to new highs as risk sentiment improves on the back of strong earnings results in the US, even though in...
Earnings anything but a damp squid
19 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 20th October 2021US equities have had a strong session, although Procter and Gamble weas one of the first major household companies to highl...
Inflation and slowing economies. Isn’t there a word for that?
18 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 19th October 2021Bond yields are higher globally as inflation concerns mount. New Zealand’s CPI read (2.2% QoQ) sent 10 year yields up 16 ba...
Shares rising, despite everything. Please explain.
17 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 18th October 2021Equity markets were buoyed by strong US earnings results and stronger than expected retail sales numbers, but there are many r...
Have inflation concerns peaked?
14 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 15th October 2021Markets have taken a more positive outlook overnight, with sharp rises in equities in the US and Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend ...
Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number
13 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 14th October 2021US CPI numbers were a little higher than anticipated. NAB’s David de Garis says we did see some support for bond yields, b...
IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
12 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 13th October 2021The IMF released revised forecasts overnight, together with a warning that central banks need to tighten their monetary pol...
Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish
11 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 12th October 2021Fuel prices are rising, with the gas crisis now pushing up oil and coal prices. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland...
Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen the Fed’s tapering intention
10 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 11th October 2021Non-farm payrolls numbers from the US on Friday were less than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the numbers weren’t...
Everyone seems happy to kick the can
07 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 8th October 2021Two cans are being kicked. The US debt ceiling can is being kicked into December, but the issues remain. The gas can has been k...
Where is the safe haven?
06 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 7th October 2021The fuel crisis in Europe and the UK is impacting global markets, with shares taking a hit. There’s been no rush to bonds g...
Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
05 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 6th October 2021The currency markets suggest there’s a risk on mood this morning, with the US dollar gaining on the Japanese Yen and Swiss...
Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan
04 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 5th October 2021Oil prices rose quickly this morning after OPEC+ announced they would stick with their earlier plans of rising production in N...
China to secure fuel at all costs
30 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 1st October 2021There’s a fair bit to chew on today, with commodity currencies helped by word from China that they must secure enough energy ...
Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms
29 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 30th September 2021Markets are much calmer this morning. Equities have managed to climb a little, with the biggest moves in currencies and co...
Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover
28 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 29th September 2021It seems like it was a fairly heated Senate Banking Committee meeting in the US overnight. Flags were raised about whethe...
Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
27 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 28th September 2021It seems markets are still trading on the hawkishness of central banks, particularly the Fed, where we’re seeing bond yie...
Add the debt ceiling to the list of concerns
26 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 27th September 2021Last week was a very volatile week, driven by the uncertainty over Evergrande, the unexpected hawkishness of central banks, ...
Optimism. But why?
23 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 24th September 2021There’s been a big shift to risk-on overnight, with equities rising and bonds falling, pushing yields much higher in the U...
Not yet, but soon says the Fed
22 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 23rd September 2021As expected, the Fed didn’t give a specific date for the start of tapering, but suggested it should all be done by the m...
Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed and oil inventories
21 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 22nd September 2021Markets are still concerned over the Evergrande debacle, although equities and currencies and bonds have all calmed down ...
Evergrande Contagion Fears
20 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 21st September 2021Markets have been running for cover overnight over fears that a default by Evergrande could spread beyond the Chinese prope...
Just another cautious Monday
19 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 20th September 2021There’s more caution in the markets as we kick off a week doinated by central banks – the US Fed, BoE, BoJ, Swiss Nation...
Lots of movement, not much direction
16 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 17th September 2021There was a lot of movement overnight, with US equities falling, then regaining some of the losses in late trade. Most curre...
High hopes or buying the dip?
15 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 16th September 2021There’s a little more optimism in the markets this morning, particularly in US equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says t...
Has US inflation peaked?
14 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 15th September 2021Inflation in the US has slowed. Is this a win for those arguing it is all transitory? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Ca...
Oil Higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
13 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 14th September 2021Markets are a little mixed ahead of today’s US CPI numbers. But, just how important are these numbers when the Fed is far...
Three reasons to be cautious
12 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 13th September 2021Talks between Biden and Xi on Friday added to market concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was the realisation of how lon...
ECB, calibrating not tapering
09 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 10th September 2021As NAB’s Gavin Friend vehemently predicted on yesterday’s Morning Call, the ECB has announced that they will cut back pu...
Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
08 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 9th September 2021As expected, there were no moves from the Bank of Canada overnight, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says the same will not be true...
RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
07 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 8th September 2021The RBA is pushing ahead with its tapering of bond purchases, just as predicted on The Morning Call, but the bank is doing...
COVID versus the central banks
06 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 7th September 2021The RBA meets today and the big question is, will they push on with their tapering schedule, reducing weekly purchases from ...
Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback?
05 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 6th September 2021Non-farm payrolls grew well below market expectations I the US on Friday, and are certainly not the substantial progress the ...
Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
02 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 3rd September 2021There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend w...
Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
01 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 2nd September 2021The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, ...
Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
31 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 1st September 2021Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to gr...
Hold on for the payrolls
30 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 31st August 2021It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-far...
Powell maintains taper silence
29 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 30th August 2021The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning C...
Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk
26 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 27th August 2021Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fa...
High hopes keep getting higher
25 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 26th August 2021Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's he...
More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
24 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 25th August 2021The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Ri...
Markets turn giddy on COVID news
23 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 24th August 2021There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rod...
Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped
22 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 23rd August 2021Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dall...
Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise
19 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 20th August 2021There are more concerns over the global growth story, with commodity prices falling and the Aussie dollar one of the hardest hi...
Central banks holding back
18 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 19th August 2021The RBNZ didn’t push interest rates up yesterday, in light of the national lockdown. NAB’s David de Garis says the decisi...
Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?
17 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 18th August 2021With New Zealand in lockdown will the RBNZ still push ahead with its expected rate rise today? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says c...
China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow
16 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 17th August 2021Markets remain unsure as to the speed of the global recovery, but there’s mounting evidence that the full extent of the rebo...
Back to uncertainty
15 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 16th August 2021The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected con...
On the road to nowhere
12 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 13th August 2021There was very little movement in the markets overnight, with thing trading during the northern summer, compounded by any signi...
Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
11 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 12th August 2021US CPI eased in July. NAB’s David de Garis says it was helped by less pressure on used car prices and airline fares, whilst...
Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?
10 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 11th August 2021Markets are a little more optimistic today, but there seems little rhyme nor reason. NAB’s Ray Attrill says oil has bounce...
Code red, but focus is on the Fed
09 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 10th August 2021The UN chief has called the latest IPCC report on climate change “a code red for humanity”. The shorter timeframes for ris...
US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’?
08 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 9th August 2021There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top e...
Watch Germany go
05 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 6th August 2021I amongst the mixed data from the US – including signs that the job recovery is slowing - and the varied opinions of central b...
Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up
04 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 5th August 2021The New Zealand unemployment rate has fallen sharply, adding more to the expectation that the RBNZ will lift interest rates ne...
A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery
03 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 4th August 2021Central banks seem to be taking a very optimistic view of the rate of recovery right now. The RBA has decided it will push ah...
More caution on manufacturing undershoot
02 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 3rd August 2021There was a sharp drop in Treasury yields soon after the release of the ISM Manufacturing numbers from the US. The expectation ...
Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?
01 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 2nd August 2021Iron ore prices fell below U$200 on Friday as China indicated that they would be cutting demand. It hit the Aussie dollar on Fri...
US GDP was better than it looks
29 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 30th July 2021Markets have had a chance to absorb the dovish sentiment from the Fed yesterday and take stock of mixed data overnight. On the su...
Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
28 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 29th July 2021There was a tame response to the FOMC statement this morning, but a more marked reaction during the press conference that follo...
Rocky road for China investors
27 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 28th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks ab...
Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows
26 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 27th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks abou...
High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies
25 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 26th July 2021Last week markets were pulled between concerns over the rise of the Delta variant and the encouragement of strong corporate earni...
Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE
22 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 23rd July 2021Equities have been helped by earnings results and a little less COVID concern. On the macro front US jobless claims rose unexpect...
Risk back on with rebound expectations
21 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 22nd July 2021The rebound from the COVID concerns at the start of the week is now complete, with bond yields rebounding further overnight, eq...
Markets recover, but why?
20 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 21st July 2021Curiously, much of the negative market reaction at the start of the week has seen a reversal in the last 24 hours, even though...
Markets Hit by the Delta Blues
19 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 20th July 2021There’s not been a lot of economic data around, but markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases. NABs Tapas ...
OPEC drip feeds more oil
18 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 19th July 2021OPEC reached a deal of sorts over the weekend which will see supplies increase incrementally over the next few months. NAB’s Ro...
Cautious for no clear reason
15 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 16th July 2021Markets returned to a more cautious outlook overnight, with US equities losing ground and bond yields falling. As NAB’s David d...
More inflation, RBNZ moves first
14 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 15th July 2021There’s a world of difference in the approaches being taken by central banks in response to the COVID recovery. NAB’s Gavin...
Another US inflation surprise. Still transitory?
13 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 14th July 2021US inflation has surprised again. It was expected to ease back after the 5% jump last month, but this time its higher still. P...
Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB
12 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 13th July 2021US stocks hit new highs as Q2 earnings season kicks off. NAB’s said it also reflects a recovery from Asia emanating from China...
Delta’s day off
11 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 12th July 2021For most of last week markets grew increasingly cautious about the spread of the Delta variant and fears of further lockdowns in ...
2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question
08 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 9th July 2021Is it below 2 percent or at 2 percent? The ECB has made subtle changes to its inflation target, but has flatly rejected the Fed ap...
Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review
07 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 8th July 2021The FOMC minutes were released this morning, but a more significant central bank release could be out later in the day. Christin...
Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates
06 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 7th July 2021Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a num...
Freedom Day for the UK, D-Day for the RBA
05 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 6th July 2021Boris Johnson has told the UK public that they are just two weeks away from removing their masks, getting back to work and forget...
Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
04 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 5th July 2021Not too strong not too light, that seems to be the view of the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday. It wasn’t strong enough to...