NAB Morning Call
Episodes
Markets still guessing the path of inflation
07 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9In the absence of any big statistical release...
US kept working through Omicron peak
06 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 7th February 2021Friday’s non-farm payrolls data showed how more people returned to work in the US whilst Omicron saw the highest wave of COV...
Tight squeeze or a gentle touch?
03 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 4th February 2022The Bank of England is certainly all out to stop any risk of wages pushing inflation out of control. The decision was one vote...
A tale of two central banks
02 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 2rd February 2022You could say its the best of times and the worst of times, with a rampant jobs recovery tempered by high inflation. Certain...
Markets still at odds with RBA and ECB. Who’s right?
01 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 2nd February 2022The RBA is still reticent to signal a rate rise this year, even as they lift their inflation forecasts. NAB’s Ivan Colhou...
RBA to join the rate-rise race?
31 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 1st February 2022It seems more likely than not that the RBA will announce an end to QEW today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says core timed mean i...
Aussie dollar loses break point
30 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 31st January 2021Whilst it was quite a night for Rafael Nadal, Friday had a less positive ending for the Aussie dollar, falling below 70 US cen...
The aftermath of the Fed
27 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 28th January 2022There has been quite a turnaround after the sharp falls in share prices and the rise in bond yields that we saw kicking off du...
Fed confirms move to post-pandemic policy
26 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 27th January 2022The FOMC has met and reaffirmed that rates will rise from March. NAB’s David de Garis says it was exactly what the markets...
Ukraine fears creates a risk off sell off
24 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 25th January 2022Markets have been gearing up for the FOMC meeting this week, but for a while at least tensions over Ukraine seem to have driv...
Turnaround in bonds ahead of FOMC this week
23 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 24th January 2022On today's podcast:Curiously bond yields retreated at the end of last week even though the assumption remains that the Fed wil...
Aussie jobs flourish and US equities bounce
20 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 21st January 2022Australia’s job numbers were well above expectations yesterday. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks about what this means for the RBA...
Inflation (almost) everywhere
19 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 20th January 2021The sell-off of US bonds has halted, temporarily, but it continues in Europe, particularly in the UK where high inflation nu...
Markets swallow the post-Omicron outlook pill
18 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 19th January 2021US bond yields are now at their highest levels for two years, with equities now joining the sell-off, particularly for tech...
China bucks the tightening trend
17 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 18th January 2022Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten for faster central bank tightening. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discuss...
Fed ready to fight inflation on two fronts
16 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 17th January 2022The Fed kicks of its schedule of FOMC meetings next week. We know tackling inflation will be front and centre, but as NAB’s ...
Looking ahead to a better 2022
21 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 22nd December 2021There was a lot more positive sentiment in the markets overnight. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s all down to Omicron n...
Europe’s cold cold Christmas
20 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 21st December 2021Energy markets are dominating market moves in the run up to Christmas. Oil prices have fallen significantly on fears that tr...
A very cautious Christmas
19 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 20th December 2021Markets are very cautious ahead of the Christmas break, with concerns about the impact of the Omicron strain. The Netherlands...
BoE lifts rates despite everything
16 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 17th December 2021A rate rise by the Bank of England has surprised many, particularly in an environment of record COVID infections, and a hospi...
Fed’s turbo taper and dots surprise
15 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 16th December 2021The Fed, not surprisingly, are tapering faster as the race is on to lift rates next year. NAB’s David de Garis says the Q...
It’s all about dots and jabs
14 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 15th December 2021Markets are still pulled in two directions. First there’s the continued uncertainty of the new COVID variant, which migh...
A little more caution on a lot less news
13 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 14th December 2021There’s a little more caution this morning, with equities down, driven by banks, travel and energy, with stay at home stoc...
UK empties the glass, but markets still half full
12 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 13th December 2021Markets were trading last week on the basis that the Omicron variant was not as lethal as the Delta strain, even though infec...
Transmission and inflation - the two concerns
09 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 10th December 2021Things were definitely a bit quieter overnight, with markets stepping back a little as they wait to figure out just what impa...
Banks to sit on their hands, UK to cover their faces
08 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 9th December 2021Even though equity markets have slowed, bond markets are still reflecting positive sentiment around coping with the Omicron ...
Omicron’s not so bad, markets hope
07 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 8th December 2021There’s a lot of positive sentiment around this morning. Equities are rising sharply in the US and Europe, oil is up and ...
China and Omicron hopes drive a bounce back
06 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 7th December 2021US equites are roaring back, so is oil, with bond yields rising again. This newfound optimism has been driven by policy easin...
Too tight too quickly?
05 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 6th December 2021Markets were far more cautious on Friday. In part there are still concerns about the new Omicron strain, although circumstanti...
There’s a certain uncertainty
02 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 3rd December 2021Markets have displayed much mor epositive sentiment in the last 24 hours, but its not lasting. Gains in US equities have falle...
WHO offers a shot in the arm for markets
01 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 2nd December 2021Markets were choppy again overnight, but there is renewed hope with circumstantial evidence that the Omicron variant might b...
Who are you and what have you done with Jerome Powell?
30 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 1st December 2021You might have expected that Jerome Powell would use the uncertainty of the new COVID strain to downplay the need to adjust...
The bounce, the restrictions, the uncertainty
29 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 30th November 2021On today’s Morning Call NAB’s Ray Attrill reminds us that the CSIRO’s Dr Rob Grenfell predicted, back in the middle of...
Did the markets overreact to Omicron news?
28 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 29th November 2021There was a very strong market response to the news of the Omicron virus strain on Friday. Equities were hit hard, currencies...
Talking turkey on central bank thinking
25 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 26th November 2021As America gobbles up Turkeys NAB’s Gavi Friend talks through the latest positioning on tightening by central banks. The FO...
Is the US getting too hot to handle?
24 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 25th November 2021There were many more positive signs for the US economy overnight, with initial jobless claims at an all-time low. The US do...
Happy tales from Euroland
23 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 24th November 2021There was a surprise for those expecting the PMI numbers on Tuesday to confirm the widening gap between US and European ec...
US dollar rises as Powell stays put.
22 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 23rd November 2021The US dollar and bond yields rose on the news that Jerome Powell is to keep the top job at the Fed for another term, with L...
A speedy taper and European tantrums
21 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 22nd November 2021The divide between the US and Europe became more pronounced at the end of last week, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains 0n to...
US continues a slow recovery, Europe’s mounting issues
18 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 19th November 2021US equities have bounced back a little today, but, as NAB’s Gavi Friend describes, it’s been a session without significan...
Caution after UK inflation surprise. Will Aussie wages ratchet up?
17 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 18th November 2021Australian wage growth is in line with expectations, but where to from here? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ivan Colhoun if there...
Tills ring in the USA, jobs bounce back in the UK
16 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 17th November 2021It’s been a positive session overnight, with US retail sales rising and US jobs bouncing back. NAB’s Tapas Strickland ...
Europe’s caution, China’s hope
15 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 16th November 2021The Euro has lost ground this morning, with concerns over COVID, following lockdowns in Holland and Austria, and rising case...
US facing higher prices, more quits, falling sentiment
14 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 15th November 2021Hot on the heels of the surprising increase in inflation in the US earlier last week, Friday saw an unexpected fall in consum...
Have a little faith
11 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 12th November 2021Markets have been a little more positive over the last 24 hours, with the NASDAQ back on the rise, although a rising US dolla...
Eye-popping inflation doesn’t faze the Fed
10 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 11th November 2021The inflation numbers from the US have been eye popping. That’s the description by the Fed’s Mary Daly as US CPI hits 6...
Markets out of steam on inflation day
09 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 10th November 2021There’s been a move away from risk assets. It could just be equity markets running out of steam after a particularly str...
Taking a breather
08 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 9th November 2021You’d think markets would be bathed in positivity, particularly in the US, with a string of good news, including infrastruc...
Bond markets wrapped up in a ball of confusion
07 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 8th November 2021You might expect a little more optimism in the markets given Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls data in the US, Pfizer’s ne...
Bank of England Backs Down
04 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 5th November 2021There has been a sharp response in bond yields and currency markets to the Bank of England’s decision not to lift interest r...
Tighter but taking time
03 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 4th November 2021There weren’t any surprises in from the FOMC this morning. The Fed will cut asset purchases by $15 billion this month, wit...
Central banks still grappling with what to do about inflation
02 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 3rd November 2021Central banks are still grappling with what to do about inflation. The RBA is reluctant to talk about interest rate hikes a...
RBA more uncertain than the cup winner
01 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 2nd November 2021For once we are going into an RBA meeting unsure of what the outcome will be. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we have as much chance...
The winds of change in central bank policy
31 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 1st November 2021There were more big moves in Australian bond yields on Friday as the RBA failed to buy up the April 2024 bonds that were the f...
Inflation, inflation, inflation. It’ll pass says ECB, again.
28 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 29th October 2021Three year bond yields rose well above the RBA’s target of 0.1 percent yesterday, but the central bank didn’t buy any up a...
Going bond crazy
27 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 28th October 2021There have been sharp movements in bond yields, with front end yields rising and falls at the back end. NAB’s Gavin Friend...
Summers’ Twitter Tirade as US inflation expectations hit 13 year high
26 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 27th October 2021Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers took to Twitter yesterday to challenge Janet Yellen over inflation policy, sugge...
Banks ready to tighten, Biden ready to spend
25 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 26th October 2021The markets continue to be dominated by rising inflation concerns, including the price of oil. WTI got over $85 today, but ha...
Powell wants time to heal
24 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 25th October 2021Comments from Jerome Powell added to the volatility in bond markets on Friday. The chair of the Fed reinforced that it was tim...
Commodities down, but inflation fears stay high
21 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
A sharp fall in commodity prices hasn’t dampening inflation expectations, and with it the assumption that central banks will bring interest rates fo...
The inflation debate heats up
20 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 21st October 2021Equities are rising to new highs as risk sentiment improves on the back of strong earnings results in the US, even though in...
Earnings anything but a damp squid
19 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 20th October 2021US equities have had a strong session, although Procter and Gamble weas one of the first major household companies to highl...
Inflation and slowing economies. Isn’t there a word for that?
18 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 19th October 2021Bond yields are higher globally as inflation concerns mount. New Zealand’s CPI read (2.2% QoQ) sent 10 year yields up 16 ba...
Shares rising, despite everything. Please explain.
17 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 18th October 2021Equity markets were buoyed by strong US earnings results and stronger than expected retail sales numbers, but there are many r...
Have inflation concerns peaked?
14 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 15th October 2021Markets have taken a more positive outlook overnight, with sharp rises in equities in the US and Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend ...
Wages, fuel, supply chains and a not-so-transitory inflation number
13 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 14th October 2021US CPI numbers were a little higher than anticipated. NAB’s David de Garis says we did see some support for bond yields, b...
IMF warning central banks to act quickly on inflation
12 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 13th October 2021The IMF released revised forecasts overnight, together with a warning that central banks need to tighten their monetary pol...
Energy prices rise further, central banks more hawkish
11 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 12th October 2021Fuel prices are rising, with the gas crisis now pushing up oil and coal prices. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland...
Soft jobs numbers won’t dampen the Fed’s tapering intention
10 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 11th October 2021Non-farm payrolls numbers from the US on Friday were less than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the numbers weren’t...
Everyone seems happy to kick the can
07 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 8th October 2021Two cans are being kicked. The US debt ceiling can is being kicked into December, but the issues remain. The gas can has been k...
Where is the safe haven?
06 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 7th October 2021The fuel crisis in Europe and the UK is impacting global markets, with shares taking a hit. There’s been no rush to bonds g...
Risk on, with inflation? RBNZ ready to lift rates
05 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 6th October 2021The currency markets suggest there’s a risk on mood this morning, with the US dollar gaining on the Japanese Yen and Swiss...
Stagflation consternation as OPEC sticks to the plan
04 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 5th October 2021Oil prices rose quickly this morning after OPEC+ announced they would stick with their earlier plans of rising production in N...
China to secure fuel at all costs
30 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 1st October 2021There’s a fair bit to chew on today, with commodity currencies helped by word from China that they must secure enough energy ...
Markets calmer, but US budget deadline looms
29 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 30th September 2021Markets are much calmer this morning. Equities have managed to climb a little, with the biggest moves in currencies and co...
Dangerous Powell, markets run for cover
28 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 29th September 2021It seems like it was a fairly heated Senate Banking Committee meeting in the US overnight. Flags were raised about whethe...
Is reflation back? Commodities push even higher
27 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 28th September 2021It seems markets are still trading on the hawkishness of central banks, particularly the Fed, where we’re seeing bond yie...
Add the debt ceiling to the list of concerns
26 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 27th September 2021Last week was a very volatile week, driven by the uncertainty over Evergrande, the unexpected hawkishness of central banks, ...
Optimism. But why?
23 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 24th September 2021There’s been a big shift to risk-on overnight, with equities rising and bonds falling, pushing yields much higher in the U...
Not yet, but soon says the Fed
22 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 23rd September 2021As expected, the Fed didn’t give a specific date for the start of tapering, but suggested it should all be done by the m...
Waiting on Evergrande, the Fed and oil inventories
21 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 22nd September 2021Markets are still concerned over the Evergrande debacle, although equities and currencies and bonds have all calmed down ...
Evergrande Contagion Fears
20 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 21st September 2021Markets have been running for cover overnight over fears that a default by Evergrande could spread beyond the Chinese prope...
Just another cautious Monday
19 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 20th September 2021There’s more caution in the markets as we kick off a week doinated by central banks – the US Fed, BoE, BoJ, Swiss Nation...
Lots of movement, not much direction
16 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 17th September 2021There was a lot of movement overnight, with US equities falling, then regaining some of the losses in late trade. Most curre...
High hopes or buying the dip?
15 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 16th September 2021There’s a little more optimism in the markets this morning, particularly in US equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says t...
Has US inflation peaked?
14 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 15th September 2021Inflation in the US has slowed. Is this a win for those arguing it is all transitory? Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Ca...
Oil Higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
13 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 14th September 2021Markets are a little mixed ahead of today’s US CPI numbers. But, just how important are these numbers when the Fed is far...
Three reasons to be cautious
12 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 13th September 2021Talks between Biden and Xi on Friday added to market concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was the realisation of how lon...
ECB, calibrating not tapering
09 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 10th September 2021As NAB’s Gavin Friend vehemently predicted on yesterday’s Morning Call, the ECB has announced that they will cut back pu...
Bank of Canada on pause, ECB unlikely to do the same
08 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 9th September 2021As expected, there were no moves from the Bank of Canada overnight, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says the same will not be true...
RBA ready for the bounce back, eventually
07 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 8th September 2021The RBA is pushing ahead with its tapering of bond purchases, just as predicted on The Morning Call, but the bank is doing...
COVID versus the central banks
06 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 7th September 2021The RBA meets today and the big question is, will they push on with their tapering schedule, reducing weekly purchases from ...
Far from substantial progress, but just a temporary setback?
05 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 6th September 2021Non-farm payrolls grew well below market expectations I the US on Friday, and are certainly not the substantial progress the ...
Only currencies making moves ahead of US jobs numbers
02 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 3rd September 2021There seems to be a lot resting on tonight’s non-farm payrolls numbers from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend w...
Markets defensive on fears of slower jobs growth
01 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 2nd September 2021The ADP employment numbers in the US normally play second fiddle to the non-farm payrolls, but they are out a day earlier, ...
Falling production, higher prices turns sentiment around
31 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 1st September 2021Markets have lost their optimism overnight. China’s PMIs came in softer than expected and Canada’s GDP, expected to gr...
Hold on for the payrolls
30 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 31st August 2021It’s been a quiet session overnight and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its likely to be a quiet week in the run up to non-far...
Powell maintains taper silence
29 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 30th August 2021The Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t indicate any timing for tapering, as we predicted several times last week on The Morning C...
Kabul blasts hit sentiment, markets hold for Powell’s taper talk
26 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 27th August 2021Market sentiment has been hit by the explosions in Kabul this morning, but NAB’s David de Garis says the response has been fa...
High hopes keep getting higher
25 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 26th August 2021Market optimism continued overnight, with US equities again hitting new highs and commodities climbing sharply too. That's he...