NAB Morning Call

The last day of treading water

01 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 2nd July 2021Markets have been treading water all week waiting for the non-farm payrolls data, particularly in bond yields which hardly moved a...

Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts

30 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 1st July 2021As we’ve mentioned before, central bank speakers are having little influence on the markets since the sharp response to the la...

Confidence rising, but so is the Delta strain

29 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 30th June 2021Markets have largely moved sideways, pulled between rising confidence numbers in the US and Europe, and concerns about rising ...

Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads further

28 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 29th June 2021A little more cautiousness has crept back into the markets says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, although it might be as much to do wit...

Lock down means no RBA lowdown

27 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 28th June 2021With Sydney suddenly flung into lockdown, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the market reaction will be today. One immedi...

Biden whittles down plan to win support

24 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 25th June 2021Joe Biden has struck a deal to push ahead with his infrastructure plan – a much reduced version. That’s helped US equities to...

The crawl back is done, reflation takes over

23 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 24th April 2021The crawl back from last week’s FOMC surprise is more or less complete. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, Treasury yield...

Fed cools things down; words from the RBA later

22 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 23rd June 2021Jerome Powell has been giving is testimony on Capitol Hill and he, like all the Fed speakers over the last 24 hours, has been ...

Swift turnaround as markets rethink FOMC response

21 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd June 2021Well, we did say it was a rather extreme reaction to the FOMC meeting last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market moves ...

Aussie dollar caught in the storm

20 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st June 2021The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week., hitting a two-month high, after the surprisingly bullish outlook from t...

NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out, but currencies fall

17 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th June 2021The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed. As David de Grais discusses on today's podcas...

Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap

16 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th June 2021At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, twit the dot plots pointing to rate rises ...

Retail sales numbers add to caution ahead of the FOMC

15 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th June 2021The FOMC meeting is just a day away are markets are being cautious, with little movements in bonds or equities. A weaker than ...

Oil nudges higher, bond yields bounce back ahead of FOMC meeting this week

14 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th June 2021Oil has hit a two-year high. This morning NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why oil prices could continue to rise. Are we heading for...

Market unphased by US CPI; ECB stays dovish despite upping forecasts

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th June 2021US CPI was a higher than expected, but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride, although it’s helped push equit...

Inflation – mixed signals and opinions ahead of US CPI

09 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 10th June 2021Bond yields have fallen further overnight, in some cases to levels not seen for several months. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says i...

Markets going nowhere, yet US job openings boom

08 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 9th June 2021Inflation fears have eased further, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, with bond yields pushing lower and market volatility easing. Tha...

Goldilocks loses a little of her shine

07 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 8th June 2021If the non-farm payrolls gave the markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday – with jobs numbers that weren’t too hot or too cold ...

US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot

06 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 7th June 2021Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday. N...

Taper torment with more calls for Fed to take their foot off the pedal

03 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 4th June 2021On today’s podcast NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a session that has been in two parts. First off there was the response to ...

Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs

02 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 3rd June 2021If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was ...

No surprises from the RBA, and don’t be surprised by an uptick in Aussie GDP today

01 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 2nd June 2021The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now. Those who...

China wants to curb the Yuan and grow the family

31 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 1st June 2021Markets have been understandably quiet with the US and UK on holiday. China delivered its PMIs, with the manufacturing read a lit...

Month end comes early for some

30 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 31st May 2021It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there were a lot o...

More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal

27 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 28th May 2021Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight. The Bank of England’s Gertjan Vlieghe arg...

RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down

26 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 27th May 2021The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating that there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year, which bolstered ...

China gets Yuan Up on the Dollar

25 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 26th May 2021Okay, we know The US dollar has fallen again, with rises in the Euro, and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick? NAB’s Ra...

Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concerns

24 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 25th May 2021Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central ...

Lagarde’s tapering reluctance; vaccines winning against mutations

23 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 24th May 2021There was a strong set of numbers at the end of the week; PMI reads were generally good, UK retail bounced back and vaccines, we’...

It was another Turnaround Thursday

20 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 21st May 2021Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week's FOMC m...

Fed taper talk pushes yields higher

19 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 20th May 2021The FOMC minutes gave away more than expected, with the Fed suggesting it might be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan t...

US dollar heading to 2018 lows

18 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 19th May 2021It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight, whilst bonds headed sideways. The main move has been the further decline...

Uncertain markets change direction again

17 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 18th May 2021US shares fell sharply today as investors once again weighed up inflation concerns. The only new data to support rising prices wa...

Inflation, confidence and retail, merely temporary

16 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 17th May 2021Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports. First, retail sales ex-auto fell 0...

Fewer jobless claims and hopes of a faster recovery

13 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 14th May 2021USA equities came bouncing back today after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers. Topday, inves...

The inflation shock we were warned about

12 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 13th May 2021US CPI numbers came in on the high side today, and markets have reacted swiftly, with equities falling sharply and the bond sell...

Vertigo and Inflation Fears

11 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 12th May 2021Equities have taken a tumble again in the US, with the falls broader than just tech stocks. Europe too has seen sharp falls. Th...

Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits

10 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 11th May 2021Inflation expectations continues to influence markets, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explaining why it has such a marked impact on ...

Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach

09 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 10th May 2021US non-farm payrolls markedly undershot market expectations on Friday, with just 266 thousand new payrolls, versus the expectation...

Let’s not get carried away

06 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 7th May 2021The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7...

Will the Bank of England taper before the Fed?

05 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 6th May 2021The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory. Ther...

Yellen’s Rates Call Surprises, RBA ups forecast

04 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 5th May 2021Janet Yellen surprised the markets this morning suggesting that it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the econom...

Demand beating supply. Inflation anyone?

03 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 4th May 2021Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic. That fact shone through in today’s US manufacturing ISM, which, whi...

A bad end to a solid month

02 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 3rd May 2021What data there was on Friday was largely good news, apart from the horrific turn of events in India. In the US, though, reads on c...

The price of supply chain disruption

29 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 30th April 2021It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have b...

Long ways to go, says Powell

28 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 29th April 2021Excuse the American pluralisation, but “long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for...

Treading water, but inflation expectations are on the rise again

27 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 28th April 2021Markets are treading water ahead of the FDOMC meeting tomorrow morning, but there’s been a sudden rise in bond yields in th...

Reflation reigns for now

26 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 27th April 2021Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data, including the PMIs talked about in yest...

Risk on, for how long?

25 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 26th April 2021Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week, with a strong set of PMIs in the US and Europe, which helped pu...

ECB avoids taper-talk, Biden’s rumoured tax grab

22 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 23rd April 2021Shares in the US have fallen this morning on news of a sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans. Although not offici...

Hawkish BoC boosts Canadian dollar

21 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 22nd April 2021The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year, bringing ...

Market cautious over speed of recovery

20 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 21st April 2021There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now, with US stocks down, with smaller caps hit particularly hard. NAB’s Ray...

Wall Street pulls back during a quiet session

19 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 20th April 2021US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there does seem to be a ha...

Bitcoin stalls, but US economy set to rip

18 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 19th April 2021There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace. Europe has picked up...

Topsy Turvey Response to a Good News Day

15 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 16th April 2021The news was largely positive overnight. Retail sales in the US were better than expected, initial jobless claims were down, the...

Earnings up, Aussie confidence on a roll, oil shoots higher

14 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 15th April 2021Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market. ...

Vaccine slow down and inflation signs

13 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 14th April 2021It’s been a session with mixed messages. Inflation is showing up in data, including higher than expected CPI in the US yest...

US CPI today; all jabs are not equal

12 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 13th April 2021It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight, with bond auctions garnering a little less interest than last time, and more to c...

New highs, fast jabs and more inflation brush off

11 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 12th April 2021Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs, ahead of corporate earning this week and despite a rise in bond yields. NAB’s...

Job confusion, yield consolidation, vaccine concerns

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 9th April 2021Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here...

Markets Lacklustre, Unsurprising FOMC minutes

07 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 8th April 2021It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time. The FOMC said nothing that surprised markets, and Janet Yellen detailin...

Consolidating and vaccinating

06 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 7th April 2021There were no significant market moves overnight. The US dollar has fallen a little further, bond yields are down and equities...

US bounce pushes equities to record highs

05 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 6th April 2021US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data. The ISM manufacturing read at the end of last week bounced back shar...

Markets Rally Ahead of Biden’s Philly Talk

31 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 1st April 2021Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan, but N...

Biden the builder

30 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 31st March 2021US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill ...

Open for business

29 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 30th March 2021NAB’s Gavin Friend says, early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyon...

Optimism, despite block trades and blocked trade

28 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 29th March 2021There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this...

Mixed sentiment sees markets move sideways

25 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 26th March 2021It’s been another mixed session. NAB’s Gavin Friend says, on the one side there’s the tantalising prospect of an economic ...

A wedged ship, vaccine wrangles add to delay concerns

24 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 25th March 2021There’s a realisation emerging, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, that even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role o...

Oil price spills over COVID recovery concerns

23 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 24th March 2021Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower th...

US bond yields fall; risk sentiment boosts equities

22 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 23rd March 2021There were big rises in US shares overnight, with the NASDAQ rising 1.7% in this session, helped by a moderate fall in Treasury...

SLR and all that

21 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 22nd March 2021The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see t...

Fed pushes bond yields up, Russia drives oil down

18 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 19th March 2021There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting today, with bond yields rising sharply. Oil has also risen a lot as tensions mount b...

Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing

17 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday March 18th 2021The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout. But Fed Ch...

Slow movement, soft data

16 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 17th March 2021There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US. It’...

Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout

15 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 16th March 2021The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of Eur...

Yields higher, jabs faster, inflation expectations lower

14 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 15th March 2021Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year. NAB’...

ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing

11 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 12th March 2021Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets, says NAB’s David de Garis, on today’s podcast. With stimulus coming down...

Low US inflation, Lowe’s go slow, China borrows to grow

10 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 11th March 2021The US 10 years notes auction this morning was a little softer than anticipated, but saw yields higher than last time. But NAB...

Another big share flip and a boost in Aussie business confidence

09 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 10th March 2021Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks. In fact, almost everything is a reversal ...

Turning away from tech as yields push higher

08 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 9th March 2021Us Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries. These higher rates have loosen...

US – strong jobs numbers, $1.9 trillion injection almost there

07 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 8th March 2021The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week. Phil Dobbie asks N...

Powell gives no answers, bond yields climb again

04 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 5th March 2021Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similiar reasons. Jerome Powell failed to reassure markets t...

Bond yields are at it again

03 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 4th March 2021Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight. This time it’s being driven not just by optimism about the speed of the global...

Australia’s growth, China’s warning

02 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 3rd March 2021All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which NAB’s Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth Q...

RBA buys up ahead of today’s meeting

01 Mar 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 2nd March 2021The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yi...

Bond yields switch direction as volatility continues

28 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 1st March 2021Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%. Phil Dobb...

A big bond sell-off.

25 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 26th February 2021Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out o...

The battle to be king of the doves

24 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 25th February 2021As the reflation trade continues to push bond prices lower and commodities higher, central bankers are fighting amongst the...

Will the RBA play catch up?

23 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 24th February 2021Many believe the RBA didn’t go far enough on Monday, buying up a $1 billion of bond purchases in the face of sharply ris...

Bond yields go crazy, Aussie dollar hits another multi-year high

22 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 23rd February 2021Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the m...

Multi-year highs for the Aussie Dollar and Sterling, whilst US yields shoot higher

21 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 22nd February 2021There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says r...

US equities fall, pound rises ahead of Boris’ escape plan

18 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 19th February 2021There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipation jobless claims, showing its not a smooth re...

The US: more shopping, higher producer prices

17 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 18th February 2021There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January, helped by the arrival of $600 into most people’s bank accou...

Treasury yields rise sharply as reflation rolls on

16 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 17th February 2021Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell. The...

US rest day can’t stop reflation

15 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 16th February 2021America has been off work for Presidents Day, but that hasn’t stopped markets optimistically looking to a world where COVI...

All the ex-President’s men

14 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 15th February 2021There’s absolutely no surprise that Donald Trump has been acquitted in Washington, which means he could stand for office ag...

Powell’s slow road, Biden plays it cool with China

11 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 12th February 2021It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours with only slight market moves, with traders absorbing the dovish outlook presented by...

Markets bide their time, with soft US inflation and a Dovish Riksbank

10 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 11th February 2021Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelat...

China’s Credit Surprise Boosts Euro. Here’s why.

09 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 10th February 2021The Euro gained on two fronts overnight. First, Super Mario Draghi looks set to run the Italian government, and is likely ...