NAB Morning Call

More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

24 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 25th August 2021The tide of optimism seems to have set in, with another day of rising commodity prices and a strengthening Aussie dollar. Ri...

Markets turn giddy on COVID news

23 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 24th August 2021There’s been a swift turn in market sentiment, with US equities pushing new highs and oil bouncing back sharply. NAB’s Rod...

Kaplan’s hawkish wings are clipped

22 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 23rd August 2021Equities recovered in the US at the end of last week as markets responded to comments from Robert Kaplan, President of the Dall...

Commodities fall, VIX jumps, Aussie hit hard as growth concerns rise

19 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 20th August 2021There are more concerns over the global growth story, with commodity prices falling and the Aussie dollar one of the hardest hi...

Central banks holding back

18 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 19th August 2021The RBNZ didn’t push interest rates up yesterday, in light of the national lockdown. NAB’s David de Garis says the decisi...

Will RBNZ still hike rates today, even in a lockdown?

17 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 18th August 2021With New Zealand in lockdown will the RBNZ still push ahead with its expected rate rise today? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says c...

China’s slowdown gives confidence another blow

16 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 17th August 2021Markets remain unsure as to the speed of the global recovery, but there’s mounting evidence that the full extent of the rebo...

Back to uncertainty

15 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 16th August 2021The US dollar lost a lot of ground on Friday, with Treasury yields falling, both on the back of a much weaker than expected con...

On the road to nowhere

12 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 13th August 2021There was very little movement in the markets overnight, with thing trading during the northern summer, compounded by any signi...

Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

11 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 12th August 2021US CPI eased in July. NAB’s David de Garis says it was helped by less pressure on used car prices and airline fares, whilst...

Will US CPI give markets the direction they are looking for?

10 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 11th August 2021Markets are a little more optimistic today, but there seems little rhyme nor reason. NAB’s Ray Attrill says oil has bounce...

Code red, but focus is on the Fed

09 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 10th August 2021The UN chief has called the latest IPCC report on climate change “a code red for humanity”. The shorter timeframes for ris...

US jobs – is this ‘substantial progress’?

08 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 9th August 2021There was a strong market reaction to Friday’s non-farm payrolls in the US, which NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says was at the top e...

Watch Germany go

05 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 6th August 2021I amongst the mixed data from the US – including signs that the job recovery is slowing - and the varied opinions of central b...

Jobs boost for NZ, whilst US jobs fail to pick up

04 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 5th August 2021The New Zealand unemployment rate has fallen sharply, adding more to the expectation that the RBNZ will lift interest rates ne...

A tale of two central banks, both focused on a strong recovery

03 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 4th August 2021Central banks seem to be taking a very optimistic view of the rate of recovery right now. The RBA has decided it will push ah...

More caution on manufacturing undershoot

02 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 3rd August 2021There was a sharp drop in Treasury yields soon after the release of the ISM Manufacturing numbers from the US. The expectation ...

Has China fallen out of love with Aussie iron ore?

01 Aug 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 2nd August 2021Iron ore prices fell below U$200 on Friday as China indicated that they would be cutting demand. It hit the Aussie dollar on Fri...

US GDP was better than it looks

29 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 30th July 2021Markets have had a chance to absorb the dovish sentiment from the Fed yesterday and take stock of mixed data overnight. On the su...

Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

28 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 29th July 2021There was a tame response to the FOMC statement this morning, but a more marked reaction during the press conference that follo...

Rocky road for China investors

27 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 28th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks ab...

Real yields reach lows, vaccine reach slows

26 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 27th July 2021Whilst US equities edged to all-time highs, the real yields on US Treasuries sank to new lows. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks abou...

High hopes, big concerns and fewer babies

25 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 26th July 2021Last week markets were pulled between concerns over the rise of the Delta variant and the encouragement of strong corporate earni...

Strong earnings, cautious ECB and NZ’s first day without QE

22 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 23rd July 2021Equities have been helped by earnings results and a little less COVID concern. On the macro front US jobless claims rose unexpect...

Risk back on with rebound expectations

21 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 22nd July 2021The rebound from the COVID concerns at the start of the week is now complete, with bond yields rebounding further overnight, eq...

Markets recover, but why?

20 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 21st July 2021Curiously, much of the negative market reaction at the start of the week has seen a reversal in the last 24 hours, even though...

Markets Hit by the Delta Blues

19 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 20th July 2021There’s not been a lot of economic data around, but markets have dipped sharply on the back of rising COVID cases. NABs Tapas ...

OPEC drip feeds more oil

18 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 19th July 2021OPEC reached a deal of sorts over the weekend which will see supplies increase incrementally over the next few months. NAB’s Ro...

Cautious for no clear reason

15 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 16th July 2021Markets returned to a more cautious outlook overnight, with US equities losing ground and bond yields falling. As NAB’s David d...

More inflation, RBNZ moves first

14 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 15th July 2021There’s a world of difference in the approaches being taken by central banks in response to the COVID recovery. NAB’s Gavin...

Another US inflation surprise. Still transitory?

13 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 14th July 2021US inflation has surprised again. It was expected to ease back after the 5% jump last month, but this time its higher still. P...

Stocks high on earning hopes; times changing for ECB

12 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 13th July 2021US stocks hit new highs as Q2 earnings season kicks off. NAB’s said it also reflects a recovery from Asia emanating from China...

Delta’s day off

11 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 12th July 2021For most of last week markets grew increasingly cautious about the spread of the Delta variant and fears of further lockdowns in ...

2 percent or not 2 percent, that is the question

08 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 9th July 2021Is it below 2 percent or at 2 percent? The ECB has made subtle changes to its inflation target, but has flatly rejected the Fed ap...

Fed minutes trumped by ECB strategy review

07 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 8th July 2021The FOMC minutes were released this morning, but a more significant central bank release could be out later in the day. Christin...

Markets cautious on numerous fronts; RBA focuses on data not dates

06 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 7th July 2021Bond yields have fallen markedly as markets adopt a more cautious air. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s being driven by a num...

Freedom Day for the UK, D-Day for the RBA

05 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 6th July 2021Boris Johnson has told the UK public that they are just two weeks away from removing their masks, getting back to work and forget...

Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

04 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 5th July 2021Not too strong not too light, that seems to be the view of the non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday. It wasn’t strong enough to...

The last day of treading water

01 Jul 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 2nd July 2021Markets have been treading water all week waiting for the non-farm payrolls data, particularly in bond yields which hardly moved a...

Ignoring the talk, waiting for the facts

30 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 1st July 2021As we’ve mentioned before, central bank speakers are having little influence on the markets since the sharp response to the la...

Confidence rising, but so is the Delta strain

29 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 30th June 2021Markets have largely moved sideways, pulled between rising confidence numbers in the US and Europe, and concerns about rising ...

Reflation retreats a little as virus spreads further

28 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 29th June 2021A little more cautiousness has crept back into the markets says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, although it might be as much to do wit...

Lock down means no RBA lowdown

27 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 28th June 2021With Sydney suddenly flung into lockdown, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the market reaction will be today. One immedi...

Biden whittles down plan to win support

24 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 25th June 2021Joe Biden has struck a deal to push ahead with his infrastructure plan – a much reduced version. That’s helped US equities to...

The crawl back is done, reflation takes over

23 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 24th April 2021The crawl back from last week’s FOMC surprise is more or less complete. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, Treasury yield...

Fed cools things down; words from the RBA later

22 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 23rd June 2021Jerome Powell has been giving is testimony on Capitol Hill and he, like all the Fed speakers over the last 24 hours, has been ...

Swift turnaround as markets rethink FOMC response

21 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd June 2021Well, we did say it was a rather extreme reaction to the FOMC meeting last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market moves ...

Aussie dollar caught in the storm

20 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st June 2021The US dollar continued to rise at the end of last week., hitting a two-month high, after the surprisingly bullish outlook from t...

NZ GDP, Aussie employment both punch the lights out, but currencies fall

17 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th June 2021The US dollar continued to rise yesterday, after the hawkish comments from the Fed. As David de Grais discusses on today's podcas...

Fed speeds up rate hike roadmap

16 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th June 2021At the FOMC meeting this morning the Fed upped their growth and inflation forecasts, twit the dot plots pointing to rate rises ...

Retail sales numbers add to caution ahead of the FOMC

15 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th June 2021The FOMC meeting is just a day away are markets are being cautious, with little movements in bonds or equities. A weaker than ...

Oil nudges higher, bond yields bounce back ahead of FOMC meeting this week

14 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th June 2021Oil has hit a two-year high. This morning NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why oil prices could continue to rise. Are we heading for...

Market unphased by US CPI; ECB stays dovish despite upping forecasts

10 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th June 2021US CPI was a higher than expected, but the Market seems to have taken it largely in its stride, although it’s helped push equit...

Inflation – mixed signals and opinions ahead of US CPI

09 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 10th June 2021Bond yields have fallen further overnight, in some cases to levels not seen for several months. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says i...

Markets going nowhere, yet US job openings boom

08 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 9th June 2021Inflation fears have eased further, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, with bond yields pushing lower and market volatility easing. Tha...

Goldilocks loses a little of her shine

07 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 8th June 2021If the non-farm payrolls gave the markets a Goldilocks moment on Friday – with jobs numbers that weren’t too hot or too cold ...

US jobs numbers hit the sweet spot

06 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 7th June 2021Not too good, not too bad, that seems to have been the market response to the non-farm payrolls numbers out of the US on Friday. N...

Taper torment with more calls for Fed to take their foot off the pedal

03 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 4th June 2021On today’s podcast NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a session that has been in two parts. First off there was the response to ...

Beige Book highlights ‘brisk rise’ in input costs

02 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 3rd June 2021If there’s one takeout from the Fed’s Beige Book overnight, aside from the continued improvement in the US recovery, it was ...

No surprises from the RBA, and don’t be surprised by an uptick in Aussie GDP today

01 Jun 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 2nd June 2021The RBA didn’t steer from its earlier stance that it was too soon to be looking at any changes in policy right now. Those who...

China wants to curb the Yuan and grow the family

31 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 1st June 2021Markets have been understandably quiet with the US and UK on holiday. China delivered its PMIs, with the manufacturing read a lit...

Month end comes early for some

30 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 31st May 2021It was an early start to month-end on Friday, with the US and UK off on holiday today. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there were a lot o...

More central bankers wanting to ease off the pedal

27 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 28th May 2021Three central bankers argued for a more rapid tightening of monetary policy overnight. The Bank of England’s Gertjan Vlieghe arg...

RBNZ talks it up, Europe talks it down

26 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 27th May 2021The RBNZ surprised many yesterday by indicating that there could be an interest rate rise as soon as next year, which bolstered ...

China gets Yuan Up on the Dollar

25 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 26th May 2021Okay, we know The US dollar has fallen again, with rises in the Euro, and a shift up in the Yuan, but will it stick? NAB’s Ra...

Low volumes, more risk, less inflation concerns

24 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 25th May 2021Equities are back on the rise and bond yields are falling, slightly, as investors seem to have accepted the line of most central ...

Lagarde’s tapering reluctance; vaccines winning against mutations

23 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 24th May 2021There was a strong set of numbers at the end of the week; PMI reads were generally good, UK retail bounced back and vaccines, we’...

It was another Turnaround Thursday

20 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 21st May 2021Equities bounced back in the US and Europe as markets re-evaluated the comments about the timing of tapering in this week's FOMC m...

Fed taper talk pushes yields higher

19 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 20th May 2021The FOMC minutes gave away more than expected, with the Fed suggesting it might be appropriate at some point to discuss a plan t...

US dollar heading to 2018 lows

18 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 19th May 2021It’s been a mixed session for US equities overnight, whilst bonds headed sideways. The main move has been the further decline...

Uncertain markets change direction again

17 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 18th May 2021US shares fell sharply today as investors once again weighed up inflation concerns. The only new data to support rising prices wa...

Inflation, confidence and retail, merely temporary

16 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 17th May 2021Share markets are riding high again in the US despite a triple whammy of disappointing reports. First, retail sales ex-auto fell 0...

Fewer jobless claims and hopes of a faster recovery

13 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 14th May 2021USA equities came bouncing back today after yesterday’s sharp response to the higher than anticipated CPI numbers. Topday, inves...

The inflation shock we were warned about

12 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 13th May 2021US CPI numbers came in on the high side today, and markets have reacted swiftly, with equities falling sharply and the bond sell...

Vertigo and Inflation Fears

11 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 12th May 2021Equities have taken a tumble again in the US, with the falls broader than just tech stocks. Europe too has seen sharp falls. Th...

Inflation, hugs and shrinking deficits

10 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 11th May 2021Inflation expectations continues to influence markets, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explaining why it has such a marked impact on ...

Does the US jobs shortfall vindicate the Fed’s cautious approach

09 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 10th May 2021US non-farm payrolls markedly undershot market expectations on Friday, with just 266 thousand new payrolls, versus the expectation...

Let’s not get carried away

06 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 7th May 2021The Bank of England has upped its forecasts for the growth of the UK economy this year – from 5 percent a few months ago, up to 7...

Will the Bank of England taper before the Fed?

05 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 6th May 2021The Fed’s board continues to talk down the prospect of tapering, pushing the argument that price rises will be transitory. Ther...

Yellen’s Rates Call Surprises, RBA ups forecast

04 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 5th May 2021Janet Yellen surprised the markets this morning suggesting that it might be necessary to raise interest rates to stop the econom...

Demand beating supply. Inflation anyone?

03 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 4th May 2021Demand is outstripping supply on both sides of the Atlantic. That fact shone through in today’s US manufacturing ISM, which, whi...

A bad end to a solid month

02 May 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 3rd May 2021What data there was on Friday was largely good news, apart from the horrific turn of events in India. In the US, though, reads on c...

The price of supply chain disruption

29 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 30th April 2021It’s been a choppy session for US stocks, even though the news on the economy was largely positive and earnings results have b...

Long ways to go, says Powell

28 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 29th April 2021Excuse the American pluralisation, but “long ways to go” is the Fed’s Jerome Powell’s take on the path to recovery for...

Treading water, but inflation expectations are on the rise again

27 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 28th April 2021Markets are treading water ahead of the FDOMC meeting tomorrow morning, but there’s been a sudden rise in bond yields in th...

Reflation reigns for now

26 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 27th April 2021Equities are on the rise again as risk sentiment rises following largely positive data, including the PMIs talked about in yest...

Risk on, for how long?

25 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 26th April 2021Markets were on a positive frame of mind at the end of the week, with a strong set of PMIs in the US and Europe, which helped pu...

ECB avoids taper-talk, Biden’s rumoured tax grab

22 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 23rd April 2021Shares in the US have fallen this morning on news of a sizeable hike in capital gains for wealthy Americans. Although not offici...

Hawkish BoC boosts Canadian dollar

21 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 22nd April 2021The Canadian dollar has been boosted by the Bank of Canada markedly increasing their growth forecasts for this year, bringing ...

Market cautious over speed of recovery

20 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 21st April 2021There’s a cautious mood in the markets right now, with US stocks down, with smaller caps hit particularly hard. NAB’s Ray...

Wall Street pulls back during a quiet session

19 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 20th April 2021US equities dipped a little overnight, pulling back from record highs. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there does seem to be a ha...

Bitcoin stalls, but US economy set to rip

18 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 19th April 2021There’s still plenty of positive sentiment around as the US, UK and Europe continue to vaccinate at pace. Europe has picked up...

Topsy Turvey Response to a Good News Day

15 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 16th April 2021The news was largely positive overnight. Retail sales in the US were better than expected, initial jobless claims were down, the...

Earnings up, Aussie confidence on a roll, oil shoots higher

14 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 15th April 2021Equities came back off the highs we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday, but their decline didn’t reflect the sentiment in the market. ...

Vaccine slow down and inflation signs

13 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 14th April 2021It’s been a session with mixed messages. Inflation is showing up in data, including higher than expected CPI in the US yest...

US CPI today; all jabs are not equal

12 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 13th April 2021It’s been a fairly quiet session overnight, with bond auctions garnering a little less interest than last time, and more to c...

New highs, fast jabs and more inflation brush off

11 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 12th April 2021Equities in the US finished Friday on new highs, ahead of corporate earning this week and despite a rise in bond yields. NAB’s...

Job confusion, yield consolidation, vaccine concerns

08 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 9th April 2021Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here...

Markets Lacklustre, Unsurprising FOMC minutes

07 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 8th April 2021It’s been one of the quietest sessions for some time. The FOMC said nothing that surprised markets, and Janet Yellen detailin...

Consolidating and vaccinating

06 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 7th April 2021There were no significant market moves overnight. The US dollar has fallen a little further, bond yields are down and equities...