NAB Morning Call
Episodes
Inflation debate over Biden’s stimulus as jobs growth disappoints
07 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 8th February 2021Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US surprised on the downside. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a big downward revision ...
US and UK blossom, as Euro struggles
04 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 5th February 2021Today’s moves reinforce the emerging story of two destinies. The UK and the US are well ahead of Europe on vaccine rollouts,...
New Zealand, first out? Mario’s return. Oil at pandemic high.
03 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 4th February 2021New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels. Phil Dobbie...
Philip Lowe set to explain the dovish RBA stance
02 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 3rd February 2021All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday. Despit...
Moving on from GameStop, back to abnormality
01 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 2nd February 2021In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal. Normal today,...
Reddit Warriors, Vaccine Nationalism and Morrison’s Budget Repair
31 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 1st February 2021Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the regulators response...
Reddit Rebels shut out, US growth slows
28 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 29th January 2021US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms, like Robin Hood, with investo...
Big falls in shares ahead of a dovish Fed
27 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 28th January 2021The markets have so far been unmoved by the DOFMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little. No move in rates or QE an...
Asian equities hit, US stimulus delayed, Aussie inflation today
26 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 27th January 2021The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, ...
Vaccine delays throw dampener on recovery timelines
24 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 25th January 2021Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer ...
ECB sticks with bond buying plans and readies for double dip recession
21 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 22nd January 2021The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside. NAB’s Gavin Friend says Ger...
Inauguration Day Highs
20 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 21st January 2021Former President Donald Trump often remarked about how his administration saw record highs in US equities. If the President ...
America Goes Gaga as Janet Yellen Acts Big
19 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 20th January 2021It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US. Lady Gaga will sing the National An...
Trump’s last day – how much will Biden undo?
18 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 19th January 2021Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what with the ...
Is Biden’s Honeymoon Over Already?
17 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 18th January 2021Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril ...
Bond yields rise further as Powell puts paid to tapering
14 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 15th January 2021Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purcha...
Bond yields fall on less taper talk; Biden ready to spend big
13 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 14th January 2021An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets, with more focus on the words co...
Treasury appetite is still strong
12 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 13th January 2020With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling, ahead of trillio...
How much stimulus is too much?
11 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 12th January 2020Bond yields continue to rise In the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the Pre...
A Blue Wave into 2021
10 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 11th January 2021The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off in a very different place. The blue-wave wasn’t written in stone, ...
US pays out whilst UK digs in
21 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 22nd December 2020You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particul...
US deal imminent. UK marooned. Brexit all at sea
20 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 21st December 2020There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catri...
One minute to midnight on US and UK-EU deals
17 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 18th December 2020The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at th...
Imminent fiscal deal, a narrow path to Brexit and a Fed waiting
16 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 17th December 2020The US dollar slid overnight as US retail sales figures for November were released. The numbers “were grim” says NAB’...
Hope springs eternal, on both sides of the Atlantic
15 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 16th December 2020Equities have climbed higher in the US and in Europe on the hopes that two deals will be struck this week. NAB’s Rodrigo...
Vaccine optimism dimmed by new strain
14 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 15th December 2020The markets lost some of their mojo today. They kicked off well as the US starts its vaccination program, but the UK health ...
US in Warp Speed whilst UK Dithers
13 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 14th December 2020The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the aim is to have given the jab to 75...
UK-EU no deal looms, Aussie breaks 75 cents, ECB to buy more bonds
10 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 11th December 2020Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there. N...
A Big Day For Europe
09 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 10th December 2020As we recorded this morning’s podcast Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson were meeting over dinner to discuss the prog...
UK trade talks to get an injection, but the prognosis is not good
08 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 9th December 2020The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiato...
UK & EU leaders to hold last ditch meeting, pound is choppy
07 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 8th December 2020The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back. On today’s M...
60 percent chance of a UK-EU trade deal
06 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 7th December 2020US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated. NAB’s Ray Attrill sa...
One deal down, two to go
03 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 4th December 2020OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a ...
More US stimulus talk, less Brexit hope and Brits ready for the jab
02 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 3rd December 2020The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine and will start jabbing people with it next week. That’s...
China’s PMI high, Australia's GDP bounce, the Brexit tunnel, OPEC delays and a US stimulus deal
01 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 2nd December 2020There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too. NAB’...
Gone Fishing
29 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 30th November 2020The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English...
Astra Zeneca re-run, Lane’s credit concerns
26 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 27th November 2020There are some questions over the numbers provided in phase three of the Astra Zeneca vaccine trial. NAB’s David de Garis s...
Not much to be thankful for
25 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 26th November 2020It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays. Vaccine hopes have been pushed as...
Trump relents, oil climbs and Dow hits new high
24 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 25th November 2020President Trump made an appearance before cameras today to boast about the rise in equities, with the Dow breaking 3,0000 ...
More positive vaccine news, but equities are cautious
23 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 24th November 2020Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce an...
Revised Aussie Growth Forecast and a Fed-Treasury Spat
22 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 23rd November 2020NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through it, plus Josh Fr...
Lockdown jitters
19 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 20th November 2020Schools out for winter in New York as COVID cases in the US continue to rise, with the country passing a quarter of a million...
Lockdowns and infections overshadow further positive vaccine news
18 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 19th November 2020Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news. On the positive side, Pfizer is set to apply for emerge...
Markets take a breather, but standby for more vaccine news
17 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 18th November 2020There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a mov...
And another one
16 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 17th November 2020Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiven...
Vaccine vs infections– the only news that seems to matter
15 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 16th November 2020Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting o...
Markets realise there’s tumult before a vaccine
12 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 13th November 2020This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bon...
Vaccine rally continues, but central banks are more guarded
11 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 12th November 2020Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more c...
Tech hit by vaccine and antitrust moves. RBNZ today, less dovish perhaps?
10 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 11th November 2020Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoin...
Markets Injected with Vaccine Furore
09 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 10th November 2020The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’...
A blue wave is still possible, but two months of ‘no’
08 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 9th November 2020There’s still a chance that in January the Democrats will take control of the Senate. Until then, President Trump is still i...
Biden likely to win. Fed on hold. Fiscal stimulus desperately needed.
05 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 6th November 2020Depending on which news source you choose, Biden has either 253 or 264 electoral college votes. We’re likely to find out tod...
Divided They Stand
04 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 5th November 2020US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election. It seems likely Biden will...
Lowe goes heavy, US stocks run hot on Biden hope
03 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 4th November 2020The RBA announced cuts to interest rates and a step up in bond buying yesterday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, as other ba...
Markets turn green on hope of a blue victory
02 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 3rd November 2020Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Bi...
Prepare for a bumpy start to November
01 Nov 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 2nd November 2020After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and B...
US GDP bounces back, and so do equities, for now
29 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 30th October 2020Markets turned around again, with equities rising sharply. How much of it is the anticipation of Q3 tech company earnings resu...
Markets hit hard on concerns over COVID and the election aftermath
28 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 29th October 2020US equities have been hit hard today, the third day of losses, with the US dollar rising. NAB’s David de Garis said the ma...
Is the Biden Trump gap closing?
27 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 28th October 2020There’s a risk that next week’s US election is more contestable than we might have considered a week ago. NAB’s Tapas...
COVID worries get classic risk-off treatment
26 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 27th October 2020Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven c...
Markets running scared at start of Halloween week
25 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 26th October 2020Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down. Normally, if the sentiment is risk off...
Trump’s Last Stand; PMI’s Galore Today
22 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 23rd October 2020In a few hours Joe Biden and Donald Trump go head to head in the last election debate. NAB's Gavin Friend says equities have p...
Look Who’s Talking (x2)
21 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 22nd October 2020Talks are back on. Safter setting a deadline of Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi is continuing talks with the Republicans with a view to ...
Still wishing and hoping on stimulus deal
20 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 21st October 2020Equities are higher in the US again today. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it is largely on the back of continued hope that a...
Deal or No Deal, transatlantic edition
19 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 20th October 2020Markets are waiting to see the outcome of two on again off again decisions, both with sizeable economic consequences. Boris J...
A calm Friday, but it could be a volatile week
18 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 19th October 2020After a fairly volatile week markets were calmer on Friday on the back of positive retail numbers from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo...
Risk off mood as virus cases rise, Lowe’s dovishness hits bond yields
15 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 16th October 2020There’s a strong risk off mood in the air, which has pushed the US dollar higher and hit stocks. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ga...
Trump talks it up. Will Lowe talk it down?
14 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 15th October 2020Philip Lowe, the Governor of the RBA, is talking this morning. NAB’s David de Garis tells us what to expect in terms of si...
The Aussie Coal Ban and Earnings Caution
13 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 14th October 2020The Aussie dollar has taken a hit twice in the last twenty-four hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the first hit came on re...
Barrett Trumps Stimulus on Columbus Day
12 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 13th October 2020The US senate is seemingly preoccupied with pushing through Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court nominee, casting aside any ban...
US dollar sinks along with Trumps hopes
11 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 12th October 2020The US dollar hit a two and a half year low on Friday, whilst the Chinese Yuan showed big gains. NAB’s Tapas Strickland said...
Markets cling on to stimulus hopes, but maybe after a Biden victory
08 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 9th October 2020Donald Trump continues to talk about a stimulus deal, even though he said it had been shelved. But NAB’s David de Garis recko...
Markets bounce back on piecemeal stimulus hopes
07 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 8th October 2020There’s been a market rebound on the hope that some sort of stimulus deal in the US is still possible before the election, ...
Markets take a hit as Trump ditches stimulus talks
06 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 7th October 2020There’s been a strong reaction in the equity and currency markets to Donald Trump’s sudden decision to stop talks about ...
Don’t be Afraid of COVID
05 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 6th October 2020As the President prepares to leave for the White House there’s still hope that a deal will be reached to pass version 2 of t...
One big October surprise
04 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 5th October 2020Friday was certainly a gamechanger. The US President went into hospital without a clear picture of his condition. Now, it seems...
Fiscal stalemate and long tunnel vision
01 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 2nd October 2020Equities in the US rose overnight despite a stalemate on the fiscal stimulus package. Optimists insist there is some hope that ...
Strong US data with no room for chicken lickens
30 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 1st October 2020No sell off in equities after that yelling match that was apparently a presidential election debate. In fact, equities have b...
No more heroes anymore
29 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 30th September 2020Despite a big jump in confidence in the Conference Board numbers for the US, there’s not much optimism in the markets ...
Taxing issues don’t hold back risk sentiment
28 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 29th September 2020US and European equities rose sharply, with rising confidence seeing a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the Aussie. The ...
Courting support ahead of election debates
27 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 28th September 2020COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave. Yet, whilst there...
Are bailouts bygones?
24 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 25th September 2020Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democra...
Aussie dollar dips lower as risk sentiment rises
23 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 24th September 2020NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as ...
Powell asks for support, Debelle hints at easing, NAB revises rates forecasts
22 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 23rd September 2020In the US Jerome Powell spelt out very clearly in his testimony before Congress that more fiscal stimulus was needed and ...
Equities fall, bond yields weaken, virus concerns rise
21 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 22nd September 2020Concerns over the impact if a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to governme...
Now, a word from your central bank
20 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 21st September 2020As COVID-19 cases rise in many parts of the world, and more restrictive measures likely in the UK and Europe, there’s the ...
Equites fall again, BoE talks negative rates
17 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 18th September 2020It’s been a topsy turvy session overnight, that’s seen equities slide even though a day ago the FOMC was signalling year...
Fed says three years near zero
16 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 17th September 2020US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting. So, what are the implicat...
China shops, RBA waits, FOMC meets
15 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 16th September 2020Equities are on the rise again in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it has been driven by a flurry of M&A activity, along...
Pfizer vaccine by year end and more easing by the RBA?
14 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 15th September 2020Shares climbed in the US today on the hope that Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year. It’s a promise m...
Six months on, a still uncertain future
13 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 14th September 2020It’s just over six months since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and we’re all still unsure about how it will all end....
Pound pummelled as UK EU relationship turns sour
10 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 11th September 2020The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdra...
Equities bounce back ahead of ECB meeting
09 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 10th September 2020There’s been a rebound in risk sentiment which NAB’s Tapas Strickland has been driven by a buy-the-dip mentality, with...
US equities hit again, Boris and Donald play tough guys
08 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 9th September 2020US equities have had a third session with substantial falls. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the damage is largely confined to t...
Brexit Brinkmanship and the Melbourne effect
07 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 8th September 2020A drop in the pound was the only significant market move today, driven by threats from Boris Johnson to walk away in mid-Oct...
US jobs coming back, but harder from here
06 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Monday 7th September 2020US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day. It also saw Tre...
Sobering up; equities hit, Aussie dollar slides ahead of a slow recovery
03 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Friday 4th September 2020There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks. NAB’s David de Garis says thin trading in summer ca...
A slower recovery than hoped for? Yet equities still rise.
02 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Thursday 3rd September 2020The US dollar managed a slight recovery in the overnight session, which has also seen continued growth in US equities, echo...
Europe’s prices drop, US shares rise, Aussie GDP today
01 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Wednesday 2nd September 2020Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise, just as the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy seems likeold news, but NAB’s...
Aussie dollar flying high, US equities stall
31 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tuesday 1st September 2020The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session, with the US dollar declining further. Phil Do...