NAB Morning Call

US bounce pushes equities to record highs

05 Apr 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 6th April 2021US equities have been boosted by a string of positive data. The ISM manufacturing read at the end of last week bounced back shar...

Markets Rally Ahead of Biden’s Philly Talk

31 Mar 2021

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Thursday 1st April 2021Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen are about to give the details of their long-awaited infrastructure spending plan, but N...

Biden the builder

30 Mar 2021

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Wednesday 31st March 2021US 10 year Treasury yields hit a 14 month high overnight, as the US dollar rose higher. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill ...

Open for business

29 Mar 2021

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Tuesday 30th March 2021NAB’s Gavin Friend says, early in the session the fire-sale of $20 billion of stocks held by Archegos Capital was all everyon...

Optimism, despite block trades and blocked trade

28 Mar 2021

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Monday 29th March 2021There was quite a bit of optimism in the air on Friday as we career towards the end of the month and the end of the quarter this...

Mixed sentiment sees markets move sideways

25 Mar 2021

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Friday 26th March 2021It’s been another mixed session. NAB’s Gavin Friend says, on the one side there’s the tantalising prospect of an economic ...

A wedged ship, vaccine wrangles add to delay concerns

24 Mar 2021

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Thursday 25th March 2021There’s a realisation emerging, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, that even though countries are pressing ahead with vaccine role o...

Oil price spills over COVID recovery concerns

23 Mar 2021

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Wednesday 24th March 2021Market sentiment has switched in the last 24 hours, with concerns that the economic recovery from COVID-19 might be slower th...

US bond yields fall; risk sentiment boosts equities

22 Mar 2021

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Tuesday 23rd March 2021There were big rises in US shares overnight, with the NASDAQ rising 1.7% in this session, helped by a moderate fall in Treasury...

SLR and all that

21 Mar 2021

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Monday 22nd March 2021The Fed will push on with ending its lower capital requirements held against Treasurys, sticking with a schedule that will see t...

Fed pushes bond yields up, Russia drives oil down

18 Mar 2021

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Friday 19th March 2021There was more reaction to the FOMC meeting today, with bond yields rising sharply. Oil has also risen a lot as tensions mount b...

Strong market reaction as Fed changes nothing

17 Mar 2021

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Thursday March 18th 2021The Fed has upped its growth expectations for the US economy, driven by the fiscal support and the vaccine rollout. But Fed Ch...

Slow movement, soft data

16 Mar 2021

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Wednesday 17th March 2021There wasn’t much movement in shares, bond yields or currencies overnight, despite weaker retail numbers out of the US. It’...

Clots slow down the EU vaccine rollout

15 Mar 2021

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Tuesday 16th March 2021The fear of blood clots from injections means use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been suspended in an increasing number of Eur...

Yields higher, jabs faster, inflation expectations lower

14 Mar 2021

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Monday 15th March 2021Bonds yields rose sharply again on Friday, with 10 year Treasuries reaching their highest level since February last year. NAB’...

ECB to buy faster, US job claims slowing

11 Mar 2021

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Friday 12th March 2021Asset markets continue to be drawn by bond markets, says NAB’s David de Garis, on today’s podcast. With stimulus coming down...

Low US inflation, Lowe’s go slow, China borrows to grow

10 Mar 2021

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Thursday 11th March 2021The US 10 years notes auction this morning was a little softer than anticipated, but saw yields higher than last time. But NAB...

Another big share flip and a boost in Aussie business confidence

09 Mar 2021

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Wednesday 10th March 2021Shares have reverted to a focus on tech in the US with a sharp rise in tech stocks. In fact, almost everything is a reversal ...

Turning away from tech as yields push higher

08 Mar 2021

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Tuesday 9th March 2021Us Treasury yields pushed steadily higher overnight, reaching 1.6 percent for 10 year Treasuries. These higher rates have loosen...

US – strong jobs numbers, $1.9 trillion injection almost there

07 Mar 2021

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Monday 8th March 2021The US senate has passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, so it will almost certainly become law this week. Phil Dobbie asks N...

Powell gives no answers, bond yields climb again

04 Mar 2021

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Friday 5th March 2021Bond yields are on the rise, in the US and in Australia – for very similiar reasons. Jerome Powell failed to reassure markets t...

Bond yields are at it again

03 Mar 2021

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Thursday 4th March 2021Bond yield have been rising sharply overnight. This time it’s being driven not just by optimism about the speed of the global...

Australia’s growth, China’s warning

02 Mar 2021

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Wednesday 3rd March 2021All eyes will be on Australia’s GDP read this morning, which NAB’s Ray Attrill says is expected to be close to 3% growth Q...

RBA buys up ahead of today’s meeting

01 Mar 2021

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Tuesday 2nd March 2021The RBA might have left itself with very little to say today, having upped their bond buying in response to the sharp rise in yi...

Bond yields switch direction as volatility continues

28 Feb 2021

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Monday 1st March 2021Friday saw a reversal in the bond sell-offs earlier in the week, seeing 10 year yields in the US falling back top 1.4%. Phil Dobb...

A big bond sell-off.

25 Feb 2021

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Friday 26th February 2021Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out o...

The battle to be king of the doves

24 Feb 2021

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Thursday 25th February 2021As the reflation trade continues to push bond prices lower and commodities higher, central bankers are fighting amongst the...

Will the RBA play catch up?

23 Feb 2021

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Wednesday 24th February 2021Many believe the RBA didn’t go far enough on Monday, buying up a $1 billion of bond purchases in the face of sharply ris...

Bond yields go crazy, Aussie dollar hits another multi-year high

22 Feb 2021

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Tuesday 23rd February 2021Australian 10 year bond yields have nudged 1.65 percent for the first time since May 2019. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the m...

Multi-year highs for the Aussie Dollar and Sterling, whilst US yields shoot higher

21 Feb 2021

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Monday 22nd February 2021There was a big rise in the Aussie dollar and the pound on Friday, both reaching multi-year highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says r...

US equities fall, pound rises ahead of Boris’ escape plan

18 Feb 2021

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Friday 19th February 2021There have been big falls in US equities overnight after higher than anticipation jobless claims, showing its not a smooth re...

The US: more shopping, higher producer prices

17 Feb 2021

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Thursday 18th February 2021There was a strong bounce back in US retail sales in January, helped by the arrival of $600 into most people’s bank accou...

Treasury yields rise sharply as reflation rolls on

16 Feb 2021

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Wednesday 17th February 2021Equities were mixed in the US overnight, but the S&P did manage to claw out a new record high, whilst the NASDAQ fell. The...

US rest day can’t stop reflation

15 Feb 2021

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Tuesday 16th February 2021America has been off work for Presidents Day, but that hasn’t stopped markets optimistically looking to a world where COVI...

All the ex-President’s men

14 Feb 2021

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Monday 15th February 2021There’s absolutely no surprise that Donald Trump has been acquitted in Washington, which means he could stand for office ag...

Powell’s slow road, Biden plays it cool with China

11 Feb 2021

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Friday 12th February 2021It’s been a relatively quiet 24 hours with only slight market moves, with traders absorbing the dovish outlook presented by...

Markets bide their time, with soft US inflation and a Dovish Riksbank

10 Feb 2021

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Thursday 11th February 2021Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelat...

China’s Credit Surprise Boosts Euro. Here’s why.

09 Feb 2021

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Wednesday 10th February 2021The Euro gained on two fronts overnight. First, Super Mario Draghi looks set to run the Italian government, and is likely ...

Yellen Denies Great inflation Expectations

08 Feb 2021

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Tuesday 9th February 2021Janet Yellen shrugged off concerns about the Biden stimulus package unleashing inflation on the US economy. As NAB’s Tapas ...

Inflation debate over Biden’s stimulus as jobs growth disappoints

07 Feb 2021

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Monday 8th February 2021Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers in the US surprised on the downside. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a big downward revision ...

US and UK blossom, as Euro struggles

04 Feb 2021

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Friday 5th February 2021Today’s moves reinforce the emerging story of two destinies. The UK and the US are well ahead of Europe on vaccine rollouts,...

New Zealand, first out? Mario’s return. Oil at pandemic high.

03 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 4th February 2021New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels. Phil Dobbie...

Philip Lowe set to explain the dovish RBA stance

02 Feb 2021

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Wednesday 3rd February 2021All eyes and ears will be on Philip Lowe’s speech today, following the very dovish outlook from the RBA yesterday. Despit...

Moving on from GameStop, back to abnormality

01 Feb 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 2nd February 2021In normal times an episode like the Reddit induced short squeeze would eventually see markets return to normal. Normal today,...

Reddit Warriors, Vaccine Nationalism and Morrison’s Budget Repair

31 Jan 2021

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Monday 1st February 2021Equities were hit hard on Friday as the Reddit warriors made their mark. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the regulators response...

Reddit Rebels shut out, US growth slows

28 Jan 2021

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Friday 29th January 2021US equities have bounced back after a day influenced by speculative trading on retail platforms, like Robin Hood, with investo...

Big falls in shares ahead of a dovish Fed

27 Jan 2021

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Thursday 28th January 2021The markets have so far been unmoved by the DOFMC announcement, perhaps because it said so little. No move in rates or QE an...

Asian equities hit, US stimulus delayed, Aussie inflation today

26 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 27th January 2021The IMF has upped their forecasts for global growth but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggests on this morning’s podcast, ...

Vaccine delays throw dampener on recovery timelines

24 Jan 2021

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Monday 25th January 2021Markets turned sharply to a risk-off mood at the end of last week, on the realisation that vaccine roll outs will take longer ...

ECB sticks with bond buying plans and readies for double dip recession

21 Jan 2021

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Friday 22nd January 2021The ECB changed nothing overnight, with President Lagarde saying risks remained on the downside. NAB’s Gavin Friend says Ger...

Inauguration Day Highs

20 Jan 2021

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Thursday 21st January 2021Former President Donald Trump often remarked about how his administration saw record highs in US equities. If the President ...

America Goes Gaga as Janet Yellen Acts Big

19 Jan 2021

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Wednesday 20th January 2021It’s Inauguration Day, or it will be when Wednesday eventually ticks round in the US. Lady Gaga will sing the National An...

Trump’s last day – how much will Biden undo?

18 Jan 2021

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Tuesday 19th January 2021Markets are looking through the prospect on any unrest on inauguration day, but the more immediate question is what with the ...

Is Biden’s Honeymoon Over Already?

17 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 18th January 2021Markets responded at the end of the week to Joe Biden’s proposals for stimulating the US economy. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril ...

Bond yields rise further as Powell puts paid to tapering

14 Jan 2021

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Friday 15th January 2021Bond yields were already on the rise before Fed chairman Jerome Powell talked down the likelihood of any easing in bond purcha...

Bond yields fall on less taper talk; Biden ready to spend big

13 Jan 2021

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Thursday 14th January 2021An ensuing impeachment of the US President continues to be of little concern to the markets, with more focus on the words co...

Treasury appetite is still strong

12 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 13th January 2020With yields rising there’s been a question mark over whether the appetite for treasury bonds is falling, ahead of trillio...

How much stimulus is too much?

11 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 12th January 2020Bond yields continue to rise In the US as markets prepare for an expected multi-trillion dollar stimulus package from the Pre...

A Blue Wave into 2021

10 Jan 2021

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 11th January 2021The Morning Call is back, and the new year has kicked off in a very different place. The blue-wave wasn’t written in stone, ...

US pays out whilst UK digs in

21 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 22nd December 2020You might have expected a positive market response as the US politicians reach agreement on a fiscal stimulus bill, particul...

US deal imminent. UK marooned. Brexit all at sea

20 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 21st December 2020There’s a strong expectation that the US fiscal stimulus deal will be resolved in the next few hours. NAB’s Rodrigo Catri...

One minute to midnight on US and UK-EU deals

17 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 18th December 2020The post-Brexit trade deal and the US fiscal stimulus deal have been pushed back time and time again, but we really are at th...

Imminent fiscal deal, a narrow path to Brexit and a Fed waiting

16 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 17th December 2020The US dollar slid overnight as US retail sales figures for November were released. The numbers “were grim” says NAB’...

Hope springs eternal, on both sides of the Atlantic

15 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 16th December 2020Equities have climbed higher in the US and in Europe on the hopes that two deals will be struck this week. NAB’s Rodrigo...

Vaccine optimism dimmed by new strain

14 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 15th December 2020The markets lost some of their mojo today. They kicked off well as the US starts its vaccination program, but the UK health ...

US in Warp Speed whilst UK Dithers

13 Dec 2020

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Monday 14th December 2020The inoculation program in the US has ambitious targets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the aim is to have given the jab to 75...

UK-EU no deal looms, Aussie breaks 75 cents, ECB to buy more bonds

10 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 11th December 2020Even though a hard deadline has been set for Sunday for the UK-EU trade deal, there’s no guarantee it will all end there. N...

A Big Day For Europe

09 Dec 2020

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Thursday 10th December 2020As we recorded this morning’s podcast Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson were meeting over dinner to discuss the prog...

UK trade talks to get an injection, but the prognosis is not good

08 Dec 2020

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Wednesday 9th December 2020The UK has started injecting people with the COVID vaccine. If only they could inject compromise in the UK and EU negotiato...

UK & EU leaders to hold last ditch meeting, pound is choppy

07 Dec 2020

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Tuesday 8th December 2020The UK-EU trade deal really is going right down to the wire – and the wire itself keeps getting pushed back. On today’s M...

60 percent chance of a UK-EU trade deal

06 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 7th December 2020US equities reached new highs again on Friday even though the jobs numbers were lower than anticipated. NAB’s Ray Attrill sa...

One deal down, two to go

03 Dec 2020

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Friday 4th December 2020OPEC+ has struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, rather than letting the production cuts fall off a ...

More US stimulus talk, less Brexit hope and Brits ready for the jab

02 Dec 2020

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Thursday 3rd December 2020The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine and will start jabbing people with it next week. That’s...

China’s PMI high, Australia's GDP bounce, the Brexit tunnel, OPEC delays and a US stimulus deal

01 Dec 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 2nd December 2020There’s a positive vibe about this morning, pushing equities higher and Treasury yields have seen a sharp rise too. NAB’...

Gone Fishing

29 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 30th November 2020The pound has already recovered the losses it made on Friday, when Brexit rhetoric was ramped up on both sides of the English...

Astra Zeneca re-run, Lane’s credit concerns

26 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 27th November 2020There are some questions over the numbers provided in phase three of the Astra Zeneca vaccine trial. NAB’s David de Garis s...

Not much to be thankful for

25 Nov 2020

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Thursday 26th November 2020It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and markets have been cautious ahead of the holidays. Vaccine hopes have been pushed as...

Trump relents, oil climbs and Dow hits new high

24 Nov 2020

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Wednesday 25th November 2020President Trump made an appearance before cameras today to boast about the rise in equities, with the Dow breaking 3,0000 ...

More positive vaccine news, but equities are cautious

23 Nov 2020

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Tuesday 24th November 2020Astra Zeneca announced the results of their trials, with efficacy up to 90 percent with a drug that is cheaper to produce an...

Revised Aussie Growth Forecast and a Fed-Treasury Spat

22 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 23rd November 2020NAB has revised its forecasts for growth in the Australia economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through it, plus Josh Fr...

Lockdown jitters

19 Nov 2020

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Friday 20th November 2020Schools out for winter in New York as COVID cases in the US continue to rise, with the country passing a quarter of a million...

Lockdowns and infections overshadow further positive vaccine news

18 Nov 2020

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Thursday 19th November 2020Markets continue to be torn between the good news and the bad news. On the positive side, Pfizer is set to apply for emerge...

Markets take a breather, but standby for more vaccine news

17 Nov 2020

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Wednesday 18th November 2020There was no new vaccine news overnight and the markets seemed a little disappointed by that, with equities down and a mov...

And another one

16 Nov 2020

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Tuesday 17th November 2020Markets have been lifted higher on further vaccine news, with Moderna saying their trials have shown 94.5 percent effectiven...

Vaccine vs infections– the only news that seems to matter

15 Nov 2020

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Monday 16th November 2020Last week was a volatile one, but markets enthusiasm stemming from the hope of a vaccine led the charge, with some shifting o...

Markets realise there’s tumult before a vaccine

12 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 13th November 2020This week’s earlier optimism over a possible vaccine for COVID-19 has disappeared completely, with equities falling and bon...

Vaccine rally continues, but central banks are more guarded

11 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 12th November 2020Even though the markets continue to respond positively to the hope of a vaccine, central bankers seem to be taking a more c...

Tech hit by vaccine and antitrust moves. RBNZ today, less dovish perhaps?

10 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 11th November 2020Those vaccine hopes continue today, even though there were warnings from Fed officials that the economy still faced ongoin...

Markets Injected with Vaccine Furore

09 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 10th November 2020The markets have scarcely had time to respond to the news that Joe Biden is the next President of the United States than we’...

A blue wave is still possible, but two months of ‘no’

08 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 9th November 2020There’s still a chance that in January the Democrats will take control of the Senate. Until then, President Trump is still i...

Biden likely to win. Fed on hold. Fiscal stimulus desperately needed.

05 Nov 2020

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Friday 6th November 2020Depending on which news source you choose, Biden has either 253 or 264 electoral college votes. We’re likely to find out tod...

Divided They Stand

04 Nov 2020

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Thursday 5th November 2020US equities have climbed as the US goes through Wednesday without a clear winner in the election. It seems likely Biden will...

Lowe goes heavy, US stocks run hot on Biden hope

03 Nov 2020

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Wednesday 4th November 2020The RBA announced cuts to interest rates and a step up in bond buying yesterday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, as other ba...

Markets turn green on hope of a blue victory

02 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Tuesday 3rd November 2020Markets flipped from Friday’s share and bond sell-off, with more optimism a day or two out from what is expected to be a Bi...

Prepare for a bumpy start to November

01 Nov 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 2nd November 2020After the markets finished with a strong equities and bond sell-off on Friday, expect a busy week, with the RBA, the Fed and B...

US GDP bounces back, and so do equities, for now

29 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Friday 30th October 2020Markets turned around again, with equities rising sharply. How much of it is the anticipation of Q3 tech company earnings resu...

Markets hit hard on concerns over COVID and the election aftermath

28 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Thursday 29th October 2020US equities have been hit hard today, the third day of losses, with the US dollar rising. NAB’s David de Garis said the ma...

Is the Biden Trump gap closing?

27 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Wednesday 28th October 2020There’s a risk that next week’s US election is more contestable than we might have considered a week ago. NAB’s Tapas...

COVID worries get classic risk-off treatment

26 Oct 2020

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Tuesday 27th October 2020Markets are displaying classic risk-off moves today – with equities down, bond prices up and the US dollar the safe haven c...

Markets running scared at start of Halloween week

25 Oct 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Monday 26th October 2020Last week finished with US stocks down, the US dollar down and the price of bonds down. Normally, if the sentiment is risk off...